Weida
Sino -US relations have recently appeared signs of ease of ease. In early November, the two countries resumed direct calls for the highest leaders, and then a high -level dialogue on defense and diplomacy was carried out.At the end of November, the leaders of the two sides will also meet in Argentina, mainly focusing on intensified trade disputes.
At present, the mid -term elections in the United States have ended. As a result, the waves are not shocked, in line with part of the rotation of democracy and politics, and the laws of equilibrium power. The Trump style will still dominate the administrative field of the United States.
China and the United States hope to continue their dialogue, mainly because for the United States, China's huge market cannot be simply separated and ignored; for China, the current tough measures in the United States have seriously disrupted the existing biological chain of economic and trade operation systems.
In the past 20 years since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has formed such economic and trade operation routines: replace foreign capital with cheap labor and emerging markets, processing and technology introduction;In order to make a joint venture and the wholly export to earn foreign exchange, at the same time, the government maintains higher import tariffs and limits foreign competition access; after the government increases foreign exchange taxes, it has also implemented preferential price subsidies or rebates on enterprises to strengthen Chinese enterprises overseas and China overseas China.The competitiveness of the low -end technology market; the government has also begun to subsidize some high -end technical enterprises, although the core technology areas of these enterprises still rely on the United States and the West.
The operation of the biological chain of China's economic and trade system has been effective in the past 20 years. It can also be seen that the key is that the company and the government teamed up: companies must maintain high exports in order to earn foreign exchange, pay taxes, improve employment, improve their own production capacity and technical content; The government must maintain high import tariffs and corporate foreign exchange taxes, so as to have enough capital turnover to maintain its own operations, and continuously subsidize the export expansion and technological upgrade of enterprises.In this way, the state -owned enterprise structure and the government's leading role, the requirements of the WTO principles and the real free market economy show obvious contradictions and conflicts.
Since the United States launched a trade war this summer and has driven the response follow -up of other major trading countries, which has led to the change of the principle of trade attitude and position in China throughout the international community.The severe pressure of salary at the bottom of the kettle has cast a huge shadow on the development prospects and confidence of the Chinese market and enterprises that follow the existing path.
Therefore, China must make strategic changes to the existing economic and trade system biological chains in order to cross the current economic and trade crisis. There is no choice but to choose.But how easy is this change?Not only requires the willingness to change, but also the ability to change.To this end, the author thinks that the reform and relationship between the Sino -US trade reform and relationship, the prospect of going to the right track in the short while is not optimistic.
In the past few months, it has historically pushed Sino -Western relations and Sino -US relations to a new game platform, and it is impossible to return to the past.This new platform has the following characteristics:
First of all, the current position of the United States is to not see the actual actions of China's change in trade structure and policies, but swear.The European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, South Korea, etc. also have the opportunity to follow up in the direction of similar strategies.China originally purchased some foreign products by importing multiple imports, and held the first China International Import Expo to alleviate trade imbalances and other means or attitude. It has been considered to be just appropriate measures.
Furthermore, in the past 20 years, the United States and the West have now agreed that the internship period of China's entry into the international trade system has ended, and China has become a key member of an important international economy.To this end, China should no longer enjoy any special treatment or buffer period, but must start doing things that meet their identity, that is, open market access, eliminate trade barriers, protect intellectual property rights, expand the market economy, reduce government subsidy supportEssenceIt can no longer delay, just say not to do it, and compete for unfairness.
There is also the so -called listening to its words, watching it.At present, the international community seems to have accumulated sufficient interpretation experience for Chinese -style characteristics (or including mixed eight shares), or it has produced some kind of discourse fatigue, so the attention has been obviously transferred to its behavior.The tough means of Trump's team is that you just speak nice and useless. If you refuse to accept short checks, you must take the actual action, otherwise I will pay you tax, I will sanction you, and I will be embarrassed everywhere. I will be embarrassed everywhere.Essence
On this new Chinese and foreign game platform, it seems difficult to break through quickly, and disappointment and depression may last for a while.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategic research and consultation in the United States
