Analysis: Chinas real estate market may cool down next year

(Hong Kong Comprehensive News) Many institutions predict that as the Chinese government has no intention of relaxing real estate regulation, the real estate market may cool down next year.

According to Bloomberg, China ’s large investment bank CICC is expected to decline by 10%of new residential sales.S & Per, one of the three major international rating agencies, believes that house prices may fall as much as 5%.Galaxy MDASH; Lianchang Securities is expected to decrease by 10%.

CICC expects that next year will be the decline in the Chinese real estate market, and the probability of sales will fall for the first time in five years.CICC analysts pointed out that buyers have a strong mood and many cities' housing prices have been loosened, especially in the suburbs of third- and fourth -tier cities and first- and second -tier cities.

S & P analysis pointed out that some developers may be dragged down by industry landslides, facing the most unfavorable financing situation over the years.

Real estate regulation will also put pressure on the Chinese economy.Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the downside of house prices may lead to some high -leveraged households facing a default situation, and it may also cause commercial banks to face the decline in the quality of asset -side credit.The growth rate of real estate investment has gradually declined, which will superimposed with the growth rate of infrastructure investment, making the economic growth rate significantly decreased.

However, Economist Ma Guangyuan pointed out that although this two years is the most difficult two years in the real estate industry, there is no problem in the long run.Replace.

China New RMB loan in October hit a new low since October last year

According to Reuters, the data released by the People's Bank of China today (13th) shows that the new RMB loan in October was 697 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, about S $ 138 billion)The median value and the new low since October last year.At the end of the month, the broad currency supply (M2) increased by 8.0%year -on -year, and the medium value of Reuters survey increased by 8.4%.