Author: Zhuo Peng Preface
The United States will conduct mid -term elections on Tuesday (November 6), which has attracted worldwide attention.Inside the United States, this election campaign is a strong and more intense political tear in recent years, which stimulates the hot atmosphere that is different.Current radical eagle policies.
Regardless of the United States and abroad, the focus of the election is inseparable from the US President Trump, who is a campaign to the public opinion referendum.It has long found a place where he would not be defeated. The populist trend he was inciting would continue to make waves.
The election was re -elected all 435 seats, one -third of the Senate seats, and most governor positions.In the past two years, Trump took over the administrative power, implemented its US priority one by one in internal affairs and diplomacy, and forced the Republican Party of the two houses to move closer to its population.The Democratic Party and Liberal Liberals, a Democratic Party and the United States, who had lost the candidate Hillary in the election two years ago. Of course, they hope to wash the wind and seize the control of Congress to restrain Trump's administration in the next two years.Zhen they are regarded as the US value.
The Democratic Party is extremely difficult to comprehensively take over Congress.In the Senate, most of the 35 re -elected seats were originally owned by the Democratic Party. The Republican Party had only nine seats to defend, which means that the Democratic Party has fallen into a hard battle on this battlefield.The most promising goal of the Democratic Party is obviously to get more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives, and the pre -election polls have a strong needle for them.
It's just that this time is different, if superstitious poll data, it may only reappear the end of the pillar in the gutter during the presidential election.From Florida to Missouri, from Indiana to Georgia, Trump opened a flying life for a week before the election. He was full of schedules. He was not busy due to official duties.After all, in some constituencies, hundreds of votes can decide the ownership of the seats; the gap between several seats can make Trump lose the advantage of Congress and unable to promote his great cause.
Trump really needs to fight twelve points to face the spirit.The major mainstream polls in the United States believe that the Democratic Party will take off the House of Representatives.Based on the political news website 538 (FIVETHIREIGHT), which is always regarded as a neutral media, the Democratic Party is expected to seize 233 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. As for the probability of Republican control of the House of Representatives, it will drop from 24%in October this year to 12.9%.Essence
However, the Republican Party seems to have a greater opportunity to keep the Senate.Of the 35 seats re -elected this time, there were 24 Democratic Party, and there were two unparalleled unparalleled independent seats in the self -liberal faction. Most of the nine seats belonging to the Republican Party were located in the iron ticket area in the Central and Western regions.The possibility is not great.At the same time, the Republican Party is expected to win in the four edge constituencies, which will keep its total seats at a slightly slightly incorporated major in 51 to 52.However, the Republican plans to expand the seats to about 60 seats through this election, which is quite different from the current expectations.
To make matters worse, the Jewish church killing incident in the first ten days before the election, defeated Trump's reputation.Although he immediately expressed his statement after the attack, condemning the shooting was an evil massacre, Trump's ambiguous position on the white supremacy group caused criticism of the Jewish community.According to Gallup's investigation, Trump's support rate fell from 44%to 40%. For the last time, such a big decline appeared. It was already in June this year.hour.
The Democratic Party usually dominates the population of the East and West Coast, while the Republican Party has obvious advantages in small states in the central and western regions.The House of Representatives, which is divided into seats on average of population standards, is usually held by the Democratic Party in the past century: from 1956 to 1996, the Democratic Party controlled the House of Representatives for 40 years, which can be described as blue.For Republican and Trump, the rectification of the House of Representatives is obviously a tough battle.
In the history of American elections, the ruling party's mid -term elections can be described as commonplace.In the past century, the ruling party has only won more seats in the mid -term elections in the middle of the House: Roosevelt New Deal led the United States to get out of the Great Depression in 1934; during the period of Klingon's administration, 1998 in the U.S. economy was in 1998; and 9.11After the incident broke out, the United States supported Xiaobashu in 2002.For a long time, the mid -term elections are the nightmare of the ruling party, and often only want to win less.
On the one hand, the pendulum effect stems from the instability of the new members.During the four -year election, the trend set off by the new president can often bring a candidate with the party.In 2008, the new image of Obama's open and free and free frustration caused the United States to fall into the small Bushshi in the Iraq war and the subprime crisis. As President and Members voted at the same time, many Democratic Democratic members of the Republican iron ticket area also took advantage ofWind election.
However, due to the tradition of being subject to seniority in Congress, the resources obtained by the New Sciences members are limited, and it is difficult to gain benefits for their constituencies, so that they can easily defeat opponents with connections and resources in the subsequent mid -term elections.In the mid -2010 election, the Democratic Party lost 63 houses in the House of Representatives.
Such a pendulum effect also stems from the different mentality of governing and opposition party holders.Generally speaking, the opponent's holder hopes to use the mid -term elections to vomit the grievances of the failure of the presidential election two years ago.Although there are no shortage of ruling supporters who are firmly voted, some voters believe that the governance advantage is holding and the willingness to vote is reduced.Wandoling voters maintain the position of supervising the government: to maintain a strict attitude towards the ruling party and tend to choose different parties to check the White House with different parties.
However, in recent years, many elections or referendum results in Europe and the United States have not been like polls and mainstream media expectations. Even if the House of Representatives made up for the election several times earlier, the voting rate was incorrectly errors with polls.In an interview with Huo Shi, Trump also said that the opposition party usually has an advantage in the midterm election, but this time it will not be.Indeed, as the tear of the left and right factions in American society intensify, the pendulum effect will happen again, which is unknown.
American voters usually do not pay attention to midterm elections, but this year's situation seems to be different.The number of people who voted in advance in multiple elections is exceeded expected.As of October 31, 69,000 people have participated in Georgia's early voting, which is three times the last election.In the Republican Camp in Texas, 2 million voters voted in advance.The major election observation agencies believe that this time the vote rate exceeds 1966, it is already a matter of nailing.Some people think that the voting rate is expected to reach 60 %.
However, the increase in the voting rate brings two very different explanations.As mentioned above: As the candidates of their favorite favorite are high, supporters of the ruling party usually lack a sense of crisis and have no intention of going out to vote.However, in the past two years, Trump has not signs the political atmosphere, and social opposition has become more obvious.
When the Senate reviewed Judge Cavano's appointment earlier, the Republican branch holders were dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's use of various means to delay the agenda. They were more worried that if the Democratic Party controlled the House of Representatives, similar Labu and unreasonable trouble would continue to repeat them in the next two years, which will cause Republicans toTrump's support has reached 91%unprecedented.When the Republican branch holder is enthusiastic, the pendulum effect is difficult to achieve.
Another opinion is that the main force of promoting the increase in voting rate is generally supporting the Democratic Party.According to the Pew Research Center, 62%of young people are looking forward to voting on November 6, far higher than 46%in 2014 and 39%in 2010. The voting rate of young people in the midterUnder %.
Michael McDonagh, a professor at the University of Political Science at the University of Florida, believes that earlier Orlando's shootings made more young people willing to care about politics, and celebrities in the performing arts frequently criticized Trump and also had a subtle influence on young people.
The major environment changes, and the two parties will also focus on the support of the middle voters and shift to the consolidation of the basic disk of the party.Former President Barack Obama visited the national speech and aimed at Trump, saying that the latter destroyed democracy, lies full of lies, spread hatred, and created fear.Republican camps have also changedSelecting strategies no longer emphasize Trump's economic contribution since taking office, and instead use refugee issues as a weapon for mobilizing supporters.
Trump earlmed to criticize the Democratic Party's open border policy in Twitter earlier to cause immigration to flow into the United States and show a tough position, ordered the Pentagon to send nearly 10,000 U.S. troops to the border to prevent immigrants from entering the country.He also proposed to prevent both children from obtaining U.S. citizenship with administrative orders.Although this order is unconstitutional and there is no room for implementation, the main purpose of showing anti -immigrant position at this time is obviously to consolidate the votes.
Whether it is a decrease in intermediate voters or soaring voting rates, this mid -term election has shown too many different.The results of the game between the two sides may not be clear until the last second.
On September 30, 2013, due to failure to reach a consensus with the Obama government's medical insurance bill, the US Congress did not pass the fiscal budget on time.Starting from the same day, the core department of the federal government has experienced 16 consecutive days of shutdown: the national park loved by tourists is closed, the garbage clearance service of the capital Washington has been forced to stop, and the streets are exuding a bad smell.
The government stopped, and the then Obama government deliberately deliberately made it to promote the medical insurance bill: Obama expects to resort to public pressure, and the House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party passed the relevant budget.This incident is just a microcosm of the different tone of the US administrative legislature.Because the House of Representatives has the right to legislate and approval budget, any major policy or reform plan implemented by the president requires the nods to implement it.
In fact, even if the Republican Party has fully controlled Congress in the past two years, the Trump administration has failed to handle administrative legislative relations.In January of this year, the government's total budget was delayed due to the differences in dealing with the issue of young illegal immigrants (DACA).In the Senate, the majority of the Republican Party, but because some members of the parliament were inconsistent with the Trump's concept, they did not praise the temporary appropriations, causing the government to stop.This is also the first time that the government has stopped in the case of the ruling party's control of Congress since 1979.
When the Republican Party controls the parliament, it is difficult for the governance; if they lose the House of Representatives again, the Trump situation will only be difficult.After he came to power, he worked hard to fulfill the election commitment. Among them, the US -Mexico border wall was forced to be put on hold because of a huge sum of $ 18 billion; the Democratic Party's Congress will not pass the relevant budget.In addition, it is difficult for Trump to promote major policies such as tax cuts or large -scale infrastructure: In the earlier tax reform voting, all Democratic members voted for opposition votes.
In the past 30 years, the United States has appeared from time to time in the United States: most of the time when the Governance of Clinton, Laobuti and Ligan ruling, the ruling party is a minority of the House of Representatives.However, presidents often use good personal images to avoid controversial topics and seek cross -party support.When Clinton was in power, the focus of governance was settled in the revitalization of the economy, and the recognition of 30 % of Republican voters and 70 % of the middle voters.During the presidential period of President, in addition to the Liberal Liberalism, he also regarded the national security issues that both voters of the two parties were focusing on the focus of the country, and called for unity.
However, in the severe tearing of American society today, it seems difficult to appear in such a situation of common prosperity.Today, Democrats, with a proportion of digital proportion, are satisfied with Trump's performance to adopt coke soil strategies for the Democratic Party of Congress and try to obstruct Trump's politics to create a public opinion foundation.And Trump did not seem to let go of his body, looking for consensus with the left.The conflict between the tip of the needle seems to be unavoidable.
About a week ago, Trump said at the election conference in Mississippi: Republican holders must vote.Although I am not a candidate, to a certain extent, this is the referendum of voters to me, and I am also one of the candidates.President Trump hopes to build a midterm election as a trust referendum in his personal and policies.
If the Republican party successfully breaks the ruling party's curse of the midterm elections, it will definitely give Trump a great confidence, and continue a tougher position on issues such as immigration and trade.At the same time, the Republican Party of the United States House of Representatives proposed the Tax Reform 2.0 Act in early October, requiring to further reduce the tax amount of small and medium -sized enterprises and reduce the proportion of pensions.After the election is over, further tax cuts may also re -enter the agenda.
Trump should understand that the risk of tied the Republican party on its own chariot is not small. Once the anti -special wave comes, his supporting support drags the election in minutes.However, today's situation is undoubtedly the most favorable for Trump.If the Republican Party keeps the House of Representatives, there are also two very different scripts: one is that the Republican Party expands the existing seats; the other is that the Republican Party loses some seats, but it still wins slightly to maintain the status of most parties.
No matter what kind of situation, it can be packaged by Trump as its own victory. After all, the Republican Party will generally predict that the Republican Party will lose the House of Representatives.As for the possibility of the Republican expansion advantage, it will inevitably bring a great shock to the Republican and Democratic parties after the occurrence.First of all, Trump will be set in a status in the Republican Party to further reduce the room for speech in the party in the party; as for the Democratic Party, the internal gentleman and the radicals led by Bernie Sanders will also argue the defeat responsibility to belong toIn order to clarify the development goals of the Democratic Party in the next stage.
Even if most of the polls predict that the Republican Party has lost control of the House of Representatives, everyone has expected that the liability for defeat must be jointly borne by Trump and the Republican Party.Once the Republican Party retains the crowds, the magnesium light will focus on Trump, so that it will seize the opportunity in the 2020 election.The populist thoughts he represented will also further change the political appearance of the United States.
