Wang Wenqi: historical complexity and political long cycle

Wang Wenqi

In 2018, it is the election year for some major powers and medium powers, but the general election is not fierce and has not been a talk about people to compete for discussions.

In March, Merkel served as Prime Minister of Germany for the fourth time, with a total term of office of 16 years; in May, Putin took the fourth time to serve as the President of Russia, with a total term of 10 years; in July, Erdogan was re -appointed President of Turkish.In 2003, he took office as the Prime Minister of Turkey, and Erdogan has been in office for 15 years.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again elected Prime Minister of Japan in November 2017, and has achieved continuous governance since 2012. As of now, Abe has become the longest and longest ruling time in Japan since the end of the Cold War.

Such a list is likely to be more likely, not less.India will hold a general election in 2019. After the founding Prime Minister Nehru, India's longest governing prime minister is the former Prime Minister Modi's former Manmo Hang Star, which has been re -elected for two years and has been in office for 10 years.

Some analysts now pointed out that Modi's problems and pressures faced in the election next year are much smaller than that of Manmo Hanxing campaign.If there are no special incidents and accidents, Modi will be in a long time, and India will also enter the political long cycle.

Of course, the political long cycle has existed in many countries.After the end of World War II, some new independent countries often enforce the country because of the charm leadership (Charismatic Leadership), and the country entered the political long cycle.In the Spring Spring Movement of the Northeast Africa in mid -2010, leaders who have been rushed to the stage, such as Libya President Kadafi and Egyptian President Mubarak are also presidents who have been in power for many years.But the problem is that the new wave of political long cycle we are now witness is very different from the previous political long cycle.

The political long cycle under the authoritarian system either depends on personal worship or military pressure, or relying on political control, but the current wave of political long cycle is basically the expression of public opinion.Promote the formation of political long cycles.

We may be able to say that each country has the specific national conditions of each country, and the people in each country also have specific considerations. We must analyze the formation of the political long cycle of each country and find the cause from its specific domestic conditions.It is true, but when many countries show the same political situation, we will find that their respective conditions may be interpreted in common.

Recently, whenever I explain the international situation for various groups, I am always willing to ask a sentence first. You can feel it intuitive. After entering the 21st century, is this world more complicated, or is it easier?

Is it even more advanced, or is it even more uneasy?Regardless of whether the audience is sitting on government officials or businessmen, everyone's answers are the same. They all feel that the world has become more complicated and more disturbed.Perhaps the advent of the new political long cycle is closely related to this complexity and change.

The complexity is shaped by history. It is common in various countries, but since the end of World War II, this complexity has been continuously covered by some grand narratives.The Cold War after the end of World War II, ideological disputes once occupied the upper hand, and the development model was generally formed two categories. Most of the complexity within many countries was not carefully studied and cope. The development of history was regarded as vectors and linear.

Even if there are differences between the two major US -Soviet camps, neither the two camps have not rationally measure each other's model.

After the end of the Cold War, the United States was full of pride. Political scholar Fukuyama published the end of history and the last person. He followed Hegel's thinking and regarded the evolution of qualitatively as a real history. Since the Soviet Union disintegrated, it was even more.Prove that the Western model is correct, history will not have qualitative changes, and history has ended.

From the specific reality, before the end of the Cold War, many countries have begun to carry out new liberal economic reforms in accordance with the US model. Of course, there are fewer success and more failures.

Some Asian countries did not take the US model, but they succeeded and attracted worldwide attention, but they also put economic construction first.Economic development is equivalent to social welfare, and the logical association between the two seems to be self -confident.

But after entering the 21st century, we discovered that the development of the world is far more than that of economic development. The complexity and diversity left by history have begun to effectively have an important impact.The countries that entered the political long cycle after the Cold War, especially after entering the 21st century, they saw that the forward route of history did not move forward in accordance with the routes that people were optimistic.There are many clues.

Originally ambitious and even through a series of factors such as sovereign debt crisis and refugee crisis through the common constitution, the left and right branches need to be paired for core countries Germany.Although the measures are too effective, it is generally proper.

Russia is a behemoth in terms of geographical area, but on the one hand, there are more contradictions with nearly European countries, and on the other hand, the economic weak and fatigue gradually shows it. Fortunately, Putin, which has a strong diplomatic style, will continue to allow Russiastatus.

Turkey is located in the Middle East, Syria, which is around for many years, and the Islamic State Organization, which affects bad, has long been troubled by the domestic Kurdish issues, and often broke out. Erdogan has a strong response to these issues and gets many Turkey.Human approval.

Since the breakdown of the Japanese economic bubble in the 1980s, the economy has continued to be sluggish and has a profound impact. In the book of the low desire society, the Japanese writer Da Shiyi analyzed the Japanese social structure and social psychology.Changes, now Abe's economic ideas can make the Japanese economy develop in favorable aspects, which is a very rare change for Japan.

Looking at India, this country with the largest democracy in the world has many problems on the one hand, such as the social grade barrier caused by the surname system, the people's resentment caused by the corruption of officials, Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs and other ethnic groupsContradictions and conflicts, etc.;

On the other hand, as a second -class role as a second -class role in the Nahru era, it is also important to make India, which has a lustrous country, and its diplomatic layout.At present, Modi's reform measures in the internal affairs have been frequent, and their diplomatic actions are constantly. To Indians, it seems that the country is becoming loud.

History was originally complicated.At the moment, this complexity is being displayed in multiple aspects, which also makes many people feel that it can no longer think that the country will definitely go to what path, what goals will definiteSex is in front of you.

Facing the uncertainty caused by complexity, people need a certain degree of certainty. This definition is the stability of the country. It includes both political stability and policy stability, so the political long cycle has appeared.The political long cycle promoted by public opinion is currently the result, but if this trend continues, it may be the cause of a new historical change.

The author is an associate professor at the School of Public Diplomacy of Jilin University of China