Zheng Weibin: Taiwans issue is part of the Sino -US trade war

Zheng Weibin

Since the opening of the Sino -US trade war, the direction of Sino -US relations has become the focus of attention of global public opinion.How long will the Sino -US trade war become a question of many people's minds.In this regard, Chinese independent scholar Deng Yanwen predicts that, given that the impact of the trade war on the Chinese economy is far smaller than expected, the US President Trump may have the conditions to end the Sino -US trade war before the end of the year.

But even if the Sino -US trade war is really predicted, the Sino -US trade war will end before the end of the year, and Sino -US relations are difficult to make people optimistic, and it may not even become better.It is generally believed that the United States has changed its attitude towards China and regards it as a strategic opponent.This is the result of the constant approach to the status and strength of China and the United States.The Sino -US trade war is only a tension between the two countries, or part of the competition relationship.

On the whole, China and the United States will compete at three levels.The first is the economic level, that is, the trade war now.The revision of tariffs and trade agreements is the main means of Trump.Initially, Trump has achieved some of his purposes.Especially in the reshaping of trade rules, the United States -Mexico -Canada Agreement (USMCA) began, restarting the transformation of global economic order.

The most important of these is the existence of poison pill clauses.It prohibits the signing of a trade agreement with other non -market economy countries unless it is recognized by other member states.This clause is generally considered to be targeted at China.U.S. Minister of Commerce Ross bluntly stated that the poison pills clause will further apply to trade agreements between the United States and other countries, such as the European Union and Japan.If it is ultimately successful, it is clear that China will be excluded from the new economic order.

The second level is geopolitics, which is presented directly with military power.The United States currently focuses on the South China Sea.In order to prevent China's absolute control over the South China Sea, the United States has continuously raised its tone of free sailing in the South China Sea, and has introduced more third -party forces, mainly its allies, including France, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and other countries.The existence of military forces exist to curb the situation of the Chinese sea in China and the South China Sea.

The third level is the political level.I think its focus is on the issue of Taiwan.This level will be the ultimate venue for the future of China and the United States in the future.Under the above background, the Taiwan issue is easily regarded as part of the trade war, and it is Trump's chips that pressure in mainland China.But the reality may not be the case.

First of all, as analyzed above, Trump is a superstition and hard -working person.Whether in the Sino -US trade war or geopolitical competition in the South China Sea, Trump has hit China through direct display of strength.In addition, in these aspects, Taiwan's power is too weak, it is difficult to help the United States, or even do not expect Taiwan to help in Taiwan.

For example, at the level of economic and trade, Taiwan's economy is overly dependent on the mainland.In terms of military strength, Taiwan ’s military strength has long been thrown away from the mainland, and Taiwan’ s security even needs to assist the United States.

And this is also worth noting.Compared to his former Obama, Trump has gone further in Taiwan's relationship.Politically, the Taiwan Travel Law improves the level of mutual visits to the United States and Taiwan.Military, Trump has continuously improved Taiwan's defense capabilities.

In 2017, the United States only approved $ 1.4 billion in military sales against Taiwan. In September 2018, Washington once again approved a $ 330 million weapon sales.At the same time, warships in the United States appear more frequently in the Taiwan Strait, stopped in Taiwan, and even rumored that the U.S. military will conduct military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in November.

Although it is also rumored that the U.S. military will conduct military exercises in the South China Sea, the significance of the two places may be completely different.The US military's performance in the South China Navy is part of the geopolitical pressure. Whether it is the US aircraft carrier crossing the Taiwan Strait or military exercise, its purpose is more likely to prevent Taiwan and prevent the mainland from raid Taiwan.After all, the mainland can't be the United States, but it may be angry.

In the United States' protection of Taiwan, we may find some clues from U.S. Vice President Pence on October 4 in the Hudson Institute's speech.In that speeches that dominated China, Pence also praised the democratic politics in Taiwan at the same time.But it is worth noting that Pence praised the Republic of China, not Taiwan.

In addition, Joseph Bosco, director of the Chinese Minister of Defense's Office of the Minister of Defense, has published articles that advocate the abolition of the third joint bulletin of China and the United States on the Hill website in October.The bulletin was signed in 1982 to limit the military sales behavior between the United States and Taiwan.

Researcher Marvin C. OTT, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Policy (FPRI) and Professor of John Hopkins University, published on September 18 in an article published on September 18 that the Trump administration has begun to beginSend a signal that is reintegrating lsquo; No. 1 policy rsquo;.The key to the Taiwan issue lies in the policy of the first US Chinese China.Although these are just information about words, it is difficult to not be vigilant.

In view of the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and the severe diplomatic crisis that may cause, we can generally believe that this is a problem that can only occur at a certain time.Prior to this, what Trump did to Taiwan was to prevent Taiwan from raid by the mainland.

Therefore, improving Taiwan's own military capabilities and letting American warships normally cruise in this area are its main means to help Taiwan.In this regard, the game between China and the United States and the influence of the Asian order and even global order will start from the center of Taiwan.

Therefore, even if we can be optimistic as Deng Yanwen thinks, the Sino -US trade war can end before the end of the year, but the tension caused by the Taiwan and the United States because of the Taiwan issue will not disappear with the end of the Sino -US trade war.In short, on the Taiwan issue, the mainland may need to make another plan.

The author is Beijing Freelance