The changes in the savings rate between the intergenerations have also made the consumer credit developed very quickly with the help of new fintech. Some even excessively induced the younger generation to consume and borrow consumption in advance.On November 2nd, Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the People's Bank of China, specially ordered the guiding controversy of consumer loan at the second Qiantang River Forum.
Although the savings rate of Chinese residents is still 35.5%at the end of 2017, it is still a high level in the world, it has fallen by 5.5 percentage points in six years.In recent years, the growth of consumer loans has accelerated. One of its major features is that the growth rate of medium and long -term consumer loans has decreased, and the growth rate of short -term consumer loans has increased significantly.
According to the recent Chinese financial report stable report issued by the People's Bank of China recently (referred to as the report), in January 2017, the short -term consumer loan balance growth rate was 19.9% year -on -year, and it had increased to 40.9% in October 2017. The medium and long -term consumer loansThe year -on -year growth rate fell from about 35%in early 2017 to less than 25%in October.In 2017, short -term consumer loans reached 37.9%year -on -year.
According to Caixin's previous report, as of August 2018, financial institutions, including more than 20 trillion housing mortgage loans, have reached 3.564 trillion yuan, and the scale of short -term consumer loans exceeded 8 trillion yuan, which was the end of 2014.More than twice.
The report believes that the abnormal growth of short -term consumer loans is mainly due to the low position of the overall spread. Banks are more motivated to put on consumer loans with higher income and strict P2P supervision.
Although cash loans and consumer finance companies are huge, banks are the main motivation for driving the increase in short -term consumer loans.According to the China Devil Report (second quarter of 2018) released by the National Financial and Development Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as of the end of June 2018, the balance of bank consumer loans of banks was 7.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.3%year -on -year.The overall growth rate of the loan during the same period.
It is worth noting that according to Caixin reporters' investigation, it is found that consumer loans may not be used for consumption at this stage.As of the end of June 2018, the year -on -year growth rate of consumer loans was 21%, but during the same period, the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods fell to 9.4%., Essentially investment loan.
The bank's supervision of consumer loans is not in place.On October 19, the Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau issued 15 tickets a day. One of the most common reasons for the bank's most common administrative penalties was that the use of loan funds was not tracked and inspected and monitored.A fintech practitioner told Caixin reporter that theoretically there was no feasible method for monitoring consumer loans. Many banks, facing civil servants, 300,000 casual loans, and many of them written antiques.The last one invested was not the house, or the stock, the worst is P2P arbitrage, and there were no other ways.
In this regard, a middle -level shares frankly said that the development of consumer loans has not yet exposed risks, but this does not mean that risks have not gathered.Another analyst who has studied the banking industry for ten years pointed out to Caixin that consumer loans may gradually enter the year of risk exposure starting from next year.
An executive of a city commercial bank pointed out that the world said that small and micro finances are difficult, and no one says that consumer credit is difficult.Consumer credit and existing financial institutions are positive competition. This industry has been unsustainable for a long time.
Dr. Ding Yu, an IFC special expert in the World Bank Group, believes that the situation is more serious.Now it has entered the card debt crisis.Once China ’s savings rate has declined sharply, the desire to consume is excessively stimulated. In the event of a decline in economic cold winter income, it will face great risks.
Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out at the meeting: This is not only an economic phenomenon, financial phenomenon, but also a cultural phenomenon and population phenomenon, which may have an important impact.■
