Chen Kang felt that time could solve the problem of political reform.(Photo by Long Guoxiong)
Chen Kang, director of China Project Director of the School of Public Policy of Li Guangyao, said that the prospects of China's reform depends on the two signs: Is the marketization of the financial market progress?Has there a relatively large change in industrial policy?If so, it means that the process of marketization continues, and China will integrate into the world market economy and continue to become the engine or passersby of the world economy.
Professor Chen Kang, Director of China Project Director of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, believes that the 40 years of reform and opening up in China will undoubtedly achieve great success, but China's economic reform is currently at the crossroads. Observing the two major marks of future reform prospects depends on financial markets and industrial policiesWhether there is a big change.
Chen Kang's public lecture held at the Drama Center of the Overseas Chinese Middle School yesterday 40 years of reform and opening up in China: Reviewing and looking forward to speeches, pointing out that since 1978, China's GDP (GDP) index has been over 34.5 times.Therefore, the leader Deng Xiaoping proposed the goal of GDP in the end of the 20th century.
He told nearly 300 listeners present that China can quickly grow into the world's largest trading country and the second largest economy in 40 years, because the three dammed lakes formed by the central plan economy system: 1. The suppressive is suppressedProduction potential; 2. The suppressed consumer demand; 3. Imported alternative closed economies.
China's economic reform is undoubtedly very successful, and it has caused many people to get rid of poverty.In 1978, China per capita GDP was US $ 245, and the poverty line of the World Bank at that time was $ 365, while the Chinese live below the poverty line.According to the division of the World Bank, there are very few poverty in China.From this perspective, economic reform has achieved great success.
Economic reform is at the crossroads
However, he pointed out that economic reform is currently at the crossroads, and it is necessary to tell what is socialism with Chinese characteristics and when to get out of the primary stage of socialism.Recently, the discussion about the retreat of the country and the people is because some people think that the private enterprises have been allowed to develop before, and have played an auxiliary role. However, China has now developed into the world's second largest economy and no longer needs a private economy. Private enterprises should withdraw from the market.If this problem is not clear, there will be other problems.
Chen Kang pointed out that the report of the Thirteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China has the statement of regulating the market and the market to guide enterprises, which is socialism with Chinese characteristics.However, China's country is large, and the market regulated by the country has a great impact on the world.The United States believes that China has a established model of industrial policies: First of all, the state introduced some subsidies and tilt policies to the industry, so that investment swarmed up, and then there were overcapacity. Everyone raced the price to reduce the price.State -owned enterprises will not go down because of the support of state -owned bank funds, and other companies are forced to exit.This model all appeared in industries such as steel, cement, photovoltaic, wind turbine, electric vehicles.
This established model is like cutting leeks. One round and round makes people feel that LSquo; Made in China 2025rsquo; industrial policy is too powerful. I will not play with you in the future. Do n’t sell things. You sell it yourself.This is the important background of the (China -US) trade war.
Chen Kang said that the prospects of China's reform depends on the two signs: whether the marketization of the financial market has made progress?Has there a relatively large change in industrial policy?If so, it means that the process of marketization continues, and China will integrate into the world market economy and continue to become the engine or passersby of the world economy.
Conversely, if China insists on developing industrial policies to develop state -owned enterprises, the United States and Europe and Japan may gradually become self -contained and exclude China.Will the process of China's marketization suddenly stagnate and gradually shrink, we wait and see.
When asked if he was looking forward to the reform of the political system, Chen Kang pointed out that Deng Xiaoping had said that there was no political system reform, and economic reform could not continue. Former Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao also said that there was no political system reform, and the results of economic reforms would gradually lose.But the political system reform was a different concept in the 1980s and is now.At least before 1986, the leader had great expectations for political reform, and Deng Xiaoping even proposed that China might achieve universal elections decades later.
However, after 1989, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the CCP no longer talked about political reform and believed that it would expose the contradictions within the party.I think time can solve this problem. We are a little anxious now, but 40 years are just a drop in human history.With the emergence of new generations from generation to generation, their desire for freedom and rule of law will surpass the previous generation. The younger generation, especially the only children, is different from the authority.Therefore, for twenty or thirty years, it will definitely come out.
Yesterday's lecture was co -organized by Singapore MDASH; China Friendship Association, Drunk Forest Club and Singapore China Chamber of Commerce, and chaired by Professor Pan Guoju, director of the Permanent Institute of Higher Institute of Nanyang University of Technology.
