Ye Shengzhou: Regardless of the trade war is a small fight, a middle fight, or a big fight. The most important thing for China to overcome difficulties is to adhere to reform and opening up, protect people's livelihood and civil rights, and make less mistakes.
On July 6, the United States imposed a 25%tariff on about $ 50 billion in Chinese goods, and the Sino -US trade war officially launched.Since February of this year, the United States has been aggressive, constantly calling for cards and cards. Sino -US relations are turbulent, and trade relations are even more dangerous.The predicted trend of the Sino -US trade war is nothing more than three types: small, medium, and big.The active rights that are finally directed are more in the hands of the United States, and it also depends on the will and strength of the Chinese battle, and the timing and amplitude of the concession will be made.
Trade war: small fight, medium, big fight?
The so -called small hit, about 6 months, resumed negotiations after the US midterm elections, and reached an agreement at the end of the year.This is the most hopeful ending in the United States and the most in the interests of the United States.This means that China has made great concessions, otherwise it cannot satisfy the expansion of Trump and the American eagle.
The United States is obviously both soft and hard to China.Send to China in one hand.On October 11, Trump said in a telephone interview with the Fox News Channel that the Chinese had a good life for too long and had to come to the negotiating table;During the summit, a special practice was held as a bargaining chip. If the Chinese side said that if there is no concession list, the China -US dollar will not even talk about trade issues or even meet.Press hard to China in one hand.The British Financial Times reported on October 22 that the White House economic adviser Kudelo accused China of not taking any measures to ease the tension trade relationship;By December, it was announced that all the remaining imported products were imposed on tariffs.
China also uses two hands to fight with two hands in the United States.One hand is determined.Although I don't want to fight the trade war, I have to fight; since I started, I resolutely hugged.If it does not fall and falls quickly, the United States has not paid enough price. With the reputation and uncertainty of Trump's unpredictable ghosts, it must soon enter the foot and make a comeback.The concession is slow.China does not restore negotiations with the United States at present. The main reason is that the United States is asking for prices.This is the correct strategy. It does not indicate that China has no sincerity to reach an agreement. Instead, the Chinese side urges the United States to show that there is an agreement with sincerity to comply with the signing.
The so -called hit is about two and a half years, and the next U.S. presidential election will be closed.Some people look forward to compromising after Trump's mid -term elections, or change the president after the next presidential election fails, the United States will soften their positions. This is a wishful thinking.
Trump's basic public opinion is stable, with a support rate of about 42%, and the support rate among Republican voters is as high as 88%.Therefore, although he is not a Republican party, it is one and a half years in power, but the Republican Party is bound to the Trump Party for one and a half years, and he has a confidence in re -election.Moreover, toughness to China has become the consensus of the American elite, and it is also the political correctness of cross -party parties, and it has nothing to do with who is the president of the United States.
The so -called big beating, more than 10 years, is seen in 20 years.No matter who defeats and who defeats, or regardless of victory or defeat, both sides are exhausted and their vitality is injured.
The harm of the Sino -US trade war affects the world.In 2017, the global economy increased by 3%, of which China contributed 34%.IMF predicts that the global economy slows 0.5 percentage points in 2020.WTO, World Bank, and the United Nations all opposed or worried about the trade war.On October 12, Indonesian President Zoko gave a speech at the IMF and World Bank's 2018 autumn annual meeting, and cited the famous lines in the American drama power game.
Management and Control: Prevention of Trade War Expansion and Upgrade
The Sino -US trade war is a dispute between the National Games and the national situation, and it is also a battle for global leadership in the future.In 2017, China GDP accounted for 67.4%of the US GDP, and it was the only country in the world that challenged the US hegemony.Bannon has admitted: we are fighting the economic war with China.In 20 or 30 years, one of us will become overlords.The trade war is the US strategic challenge to China and a strategic test of China.
On October 4, US Vice President Pence, as a representative of the Conservative Group, delivered a conservative speech of the government's policy on China in the conservative think tank of the Hardon Institute in Washington, causing widespread attention worldwide.
The U.S. Boat List has rebuilt China and lists a long list of complaints.The speech finally demonstrated the friendliness based on the interests of the United States and the United States priority: the American people have nothing to do, and the Chinese people should get more. They call on China to return to the spirit of reform and opening up at the beginning of the relationship between the two countries decades ago.The subtext is intriguing.
Sino -US relations are at the crossroads, and China is also at the crossroads.Objectively speaking, Pence's speech is neither the New Cold War nor the Cold War 2.0, but the ultimatum of the Cold War, which is a trend rather than the theory.On October 8th, Pompeo visited China that the United States did not comprehensively curb China's policy; on October 15, Mattis visited Vietnam that we did not intend to curb China.But the United States has issued a strong warning to China.
Military warfare must also be rational to find a win -win situation. For example, in the North Korean issue, there is common interests and room for cooperation.
As a great country in the United States, it is normal for the reaction and prevention measures to emerging states.The author is most worried about the misjudgment of the two armies. He wiped the gun in the South China Sea. The two sides were sitting as a strategic enemy. The vicious cycle was reported to the world.
Before the Sino -US trade war, military should be a stabilizer, cockpit and stop loss line for the relationship between the two countries.On October 18, the Sino -US Defense Minister held a candid and frank (Mattisian) talks in Singapore. The United States Assistant National Defense Minister Shi Laifu commented on the talks. Like us, the Chinese have to keep the situation and the situation are normal and the situation is normal andStable and interested.On October 27, Matisse said that the Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe will visit Washington this week.It can be seen that the two armed forces and the two countries are still rational.
Difficulties: Reform and opening up, people's livelihood civil rights
At present, China's economic fundamentals are severe, and the public and corporate confidence is insufficient.The volume and stamina of the Chinese economy have no problems in responding to the Sino -US trade war in the short term, but in the middle and long term, the expected damage is increasingly prominent.Regardless of foreign investment or Chinese, state -owned enterprises or private enterprises, in order to avoid the risk of high punitive tariffs, they have to accelerate the transfer of the industrial chain to the United States, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, India and other countries., Output value, taxation, employment, consumption, export, etc. all have chain losses.
The lack of confidence and confidence in the Chinese economy is not a high -level shouting to pitch.The most important thing for crossing difficulties is to adhere to reform and opening up, protect people's livelihood, and make less mistakes.Recently, it is expected that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee will make a decision to deepen reform and opening up; in the middle and long term, it is expected to realize the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities.
December 18 is the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up.The theme of the Third Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is the reform of the party and state institutions. Although at the central view (the responsibilities of the Central Ministries and the Internal Affairs and Bureau, the responsibilities are merged, added and deleted), there are some new ideas and highlights.Or slightly insufficient.At the end of the year, there is only a commemorative conference, and there is a gap with the urgent needs and expectations of domestic and international.If the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee is held before commemorating the conferenceDeepening the decision of reform and opening up, making the top -level design of concentrated breakthroughs in bottlenecks such as finance, rule of law, people's livelihood, and private enterprises, is enough to stabilize people's hearts and stabilize capital.
The national governance system and governance capabilities of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, listed it as one of the general goals of comprehensive deepening reform.The key to the difference between governance and rule lies in the diversified and equal of governance, and solve the logic self -consistent.The definition of German philosopher Habermas in 1964 emphasized that the discussion of the public participation in the public domain was equal, criticized, and logically extended. It must also be diverse.
China's realization of peaceful rise is a grand, unique and arduous task to make domestic and international (including the United States) orally.The modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities is worthy of being listed as the theme of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Re shrinking the gap between the rich and the poor to achieve common prosperity, public officials and their family property from top to bottom, reform of mixed ownership of state -owned enterprises, political system reforms, the CCP's democratic transformation from the Revolutionary Party to the ruling party, and the growth of civic society.There should be a meaning in China.
Although the winter is coming, spring is not far.We are full of hope, wait and see. (Note: The author is an independent commentator, WeChat ID: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
