Kong Paul
More and more signs have shown that the Xitter will meet at the 20th National Summit in Buenos Aires from November 30th to December 1st.Some people speculate that China will take this opportunity to concessions the United States, and the Sino -US trade war will end.
However, in my opinion, even if Xi and Special meetings, the Sino -US trade war cannot end immediately; the most likely result is that Xi and Special agreed to solve the problem through negotiations, which means that the two parties will start on the issue of the trade war issue.Substantive negotiation.
It is very obvious that although China and the United States have conducted negotiations before and after the outbreak of the trade war, in fact, this negotiation is almost no substantial significance. Because of any international substantive bilateral negotiations, both parties to the negotiations have specific specifics.Requirements and full authority representatives.But so far, the Trump administration has not yet formed a consistent and specific negotiation goal, that is, what exactly do China be required to make concessions on the issue of trade war in China?The Trump administration has not formed a clear plan to date (mild faction has a gentle claim, the hardlines have the requirements of hardliners, the gap between the two is very huge), and even Trump himself is unclear.
On the other hand, the Trump administration has not yet really appointed a full authority to negotiate a trade war with China.In this case, although China is willing to talk, it also agrees to make concessions, and even if the secret negotiations are negotiated, the two parties have conducted at least four rounds of negotiations.
However, one thing is certain, that is, Trump will eventually realize that only through negotiations can it solve the problem of trade imbalance between China and the United States.Because in terms of technical nature, before the above two problems, the Sino -US trade war may not end before the above two aspects. Even if China surrender under Trump's high pressure, it requires the specific requirements of the United States in advance.It is a complete unconditional surrender and sending a complete representative of accepting surrender, otherwise it is impossible to operate at all.
Therefore, during the 20 -National Summit meeting, the only possible results between the two sides were agreed to hold substantial negotiations.In other words, Trump will ask Trump to appoint all rights to negotiate with China; and Trump will basically agree with the Chinese claim because there is no harm to him.
What is the result of the substantial negotiations between the two parties?The author believes that the two sides will definitely reach an agreement to end the trade war in a phase.Does this mean that China will make fundamental compromises?Many experts and scholars now believe that China will make great concessions to the United States.However, in my opinion, this statement is very layman.Because the so -called major concessions are compared to the specific requirements of negotiations, as mentioned earlier, so far, the Trump administration has not formed a very clear and specific negotiation requirement for China.In this case, how to judge what is a major concession?
The author believes that the above -mentioned agreement reached by China and the United States can only solve the problem of unbalanced trade between China and the United States in a periodic.During the third round of Sino -US negotiations on trade, the United States had issued a list of requests to China.However, whether this is the last list of Trump is still unknown, because the gentle school within the Trump government does not agree with this list.Judging from the current situation, even if Trump recognizes this list, it is impossible to ask China to make concessions.
As early as this list was released, China had carefully studied the list, and believed that one -third of them were acceptable (here we call it part A), and one -third was negotiated (hereWe call it part B), and one third is impossible at all (here we call part C).
The author believes that the possible results after the substantive negotiations between China and the United States are at most to accept the requirements of the United States A and B; as for part C, it is impossible.And even so, Trump has Lizi and face (otherwise nothing can be obtained).Therefore, he will accept this result at least to a certain extent.In addition, even if the two parties open substantive negotiations, they need a certain process (the two parties will bargain very fiercely), so it is unlikely that the two parties can reach the final agreement in the short term.
The author is a Chinese scholar in Australia
Originally working in Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
