Wangbao Society Review
Global political and economic turbulence is fierce, and the financial and investment markets have changed color.In the situation of chaos, at first glance, the US dollar currency value was unique and smiled, and the RMB was relatively weak.However, mainland China is the second largest economy in the world, and it has grown rapidly. Its rich family base is enough to support the short space of the RMB.Of course, in the short term, the official still must still be committed to maintaining the confidence of the RMB at home and abroad; the main method should be to strengthen the vitality of economic and trade, make the RMB coming in handy, and become an indispensable or missing currency in cross -border transactions. As for whether the exchange rate is kept 7, 7,In fact, it is a secondary issue.
This year, the US economy is hot, the US dollar has continued to raise interest rates, and the currency value has risen step by step, causing global funds to flow to the United States, making US stock market a new high over the years.However, things must be universal in the world. Recently, the US stock market has fluctuated and frustrated. Once it turns into a bear market, the US dollar interest rate increase cycle and strong exchange rate will end.
In other words, in the global economic system, there is no iron camp; the next step of the US economy, the US dollar exchange rate, and U.S. stock market, whether it can continue to be strong before, has a lot of question marks.In any case, the global economy, especially financial investment, is best to support each other.The Trump administration, who is prioritized in the United States, will eventually understand the reason that Dugu is difficult to support the building.
From this perspective, in mainland China, it should be another pole worthy of the hope of free trade with its economic scale and adhering to the principles of free trade.However, since the opening of the U.S. trade war in the junior high school this year, the Chinese reaction that the United States and several western countries' favorite discussions are the continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the significant decline in land stock market;The United States is winning this trade war, and mainland China can no longer compete with the United States for the global economic leadership.
As everyone knows, since the beginning of this year, the mainland has made considerable contributions to the global economy.The most representative indicator is from January to September, the total amount of goods imported from the mainland was priced at RMB, up to 10.43 trillion yuan, and an annual growth rate of 14.1%, far exceeding the total exported goods in the mainland by 6.5%.This also shows that the mainland's road to the world market has not been blocked by the Sino -US trade war.The great increase in imports was created by the devaluation of the renminbi, which is not easy.Theoretically, the depreciation of currency will increase the cost of buying foreign exchange for manufacturers, which is not conducive to import expansion. However, the performance of mainland China since the beginning of this year is the opposite.
The reason behind it is that in addition to the implementation of open markets and expanding the new policy of imports this year, it can also boldly inference that direct settlement trade with RMB has increased significantly, which has relatively reduced the interference of exchange rate factors.In other words, the acceptance of overseas exporters to the payment of RMB is more improved than ever. Therefore, import manufacturers in mainland China can directly pay the price of goods directly at the RMB without increasing import costs due to the depreciation of the RMB.The Japanese Prime Minister Abe visited the China -Japan currency exchange agreement with Mainland China.
This situation can also feel Taiwan.That is, the total balance of RMB deposits in the Taiwan Banking system so far has remained at the level of slightly more than 300 billion yuan (RMB), and has not shrunk due to its depreciation of the exchange rate.Increased RMB deposits; most of these depositors are exporters of land, and they are willing to collect RMB payment and deposit directly into banks.Outside of Taiwan, there are no significant decrease in the balance of RMB deposits in overseas markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
Looking at the current confidence in the renminbi at home and abroad, the main reason is that the renminbi has been blessed by the new deployment of the mainland's economic and trade policy.The open market announced earlier and expanded the new policies of imports. If it can be implemented, it can significantly strengthen the vitality of the mainland's economic and trade vitality, and also make the RMB more conditional directly applied to the level of cross -border substantial transactions.
Mainland officials need to master an important point in front of them, that is, the first China International Import Expo, which is about to appear in Shanghai on November 5th; the competent authority may wish to take advantage of this occasion to encourage foreign merchants to expand acceptance of RMB.Overseas exporters can prefer to prioritize their goods; this will effectively improve the cross -border circulation of RMB.
On the other hand, mainland officials should also induce domestic exporters in many ways, expand the renminbi payment of overseas buyers, deepen the people in the two -way transactions of import and export, and have more economic and trade confidence.The expansion of the domestic demand market, and the revitalization of private enterprises, is also an important pillar of the confidence of the RMB.If the mainland can do both officials and civilian enterprises, and the market is booming, people do not need to invest in foreign currencies, and RMB assets alone will be abundant.
Strengthening the vitality of economic and trade and the deep combination of renminbi and substantive transactions is the fundamental measure to maintain the confidence of stabilizing the RMB. On this basis, the RMB exchange rate should be raised for a long time.In contrast, whether the current exchanges should be preserved for seven, it is just for the short -term special situation. You don't have to see too seriously.
