In the past six months, China's economy has encountered obvious liquidity crisis.Unlike the previous liquidity crisis, the storm center of this liquidity crisis is in the listed company and its major shareholders, especially a large number of private holding companies with a high industry status due to the liquidity crisis of their own or its large stocks.It is sighing to the state -owned capital transfer control of state -owned capital, which has to be more abundant in cash flow.
We believe that the main reasons for many listed companies to fall into a liquidity crisis in the near future. In addition to domestic and foreign market environmental factors and the management factors of the enterprise, the continuous mistakes of regulatory policies, the more they are rising to death, and distorting the market behavior. It is also important that it cannot be ignored.reason.
The bell must also be tied to the bell. In order to allow this liquidity crisis to return to normal as soon as possible, the regulatory policy should make corresponding adjustments as soon as possible.Although the securities regulatory authorities have recently been padded with some mergers and acquisitions and reorganization policies, including backdoor listing, these may not be a strategy to solve the current liquid crisis.
The process of the major shareholders of listed companies fall into crisis
An important purpose of a company's best efforts to complete the IPO is to achieve the liquidity of the shares held by the major shareholders. Generally, major shareholders of listed companies generally include the market value of the listed company's stock as their highest quality liquid assets into their overall financial planning.However, the two new regulations issued by the regulatory authorities in January 2016 and May 2017 completely changed the financial expectations of major shareholders.Although the new regulations for reducing holdings in January 2016 tightened the conditions for large shareholders to reduce their holdings through the secondary market, but the large -scale reduction of holdings of the transaction was still unblocked, it was only a one -procedure;The major shareholders of listed companies began to be alert.In May 2017, the second reduction of holdings of holdings not only completely blocked the community trading channel, but also included all IPO shareholders and participating shareholders in the or less.The various channels of the securities market are basically blocked, and only the shares to be allowed to crawl and reduce their holdings at a rate of 1%of the total share capital of the company at a rate of 1%every three months. The difficulty of reducing holdings has increased significantly.Some of the huge stock market value suddenly become expected to be wealthy on paper.
At this time, with the continuous deepening of supply -side reforms, the risk of financial institutions to loans of funds to various excess capacity industries has increased significantly, and various financial institutions including securities companies, including securities companies, began to chase so -called low -risk listed companies' stock pledge financing business.Some financial institutions have also opened excellent project contracting system for stock pledge financing business, and financing interest rates are also quite favorable.In order to make up for the funding gap that the shares cannot reduce the holdings, and to reserve high -quality project resources for listed companies or directly increase the shareholding of listed companies, many major listed companies have naturally selected large -scale stock pledge financing business.After February 2017, as the difficulty of financing of listed companies has greatly improved due to policy changes, many major shareholders of listed companies provide stock pledge guarantees in order to meet the debt financing needs of listed companies.Big shareholders are naturally unavoidable.
Shortly after the completion of the pledge financing of many listed companies in 2017, its stocks began a long way to return. Except for a few large -scale blue -chip stocks, most small and medium -sized stocks fell more than 50%in 2017.Many listed companies that have handled stock pledge financing business need to keep replenishing pledges and gradually feel greater market pressure.But at this critical moment, a modification of a market rules made many major shareholders of listed companies that had fallen into the liquidity trap: stock pledge repurchase transactions and registration settlement business methods announced on January 12, 2018It is clearly stipulated that the overall pledge ratio of a single A -share stock market does not exceed 50%. In this way, the stocks in the hands of major shareholders are not only difficult for all the stocks to pledge, but the number of pledges also depends on whether the two shareholders and three shareholders are the first.If a stock has fallen by 50%over the past year, and the major shareholders can only pledge half of the stock, the liquidity of the major shareholders has only 25%of the liquidity of the major shareholders in one year.
Since then, with the expansion of the liquidity crisis of the major shareholders of listed companies. In order to maintain the stability of the control of listed companies, the regulatory authorities have begun to guide the forcibly handling of stocks of securities firms.Many brokers have been more cautious since then they have carried out such businesses, and have put forward higher requirements for the market value discounts of pledged stocks. Some brokers even take the attitude of watching currency.
The cause of the system of liquidity crisis in listed companies
For a long time, the A -share listed company has always been the first choice for commercial bank loans because of its strong direct financing capabilities, and rarely has a liquidity crisis.Experience debt.In May 2006, the Securities Regulatory Commission promulgated the management measures for securities issuance of listed companies after the equity separation reform was basically completed. The main channel for the establishment of the equity financing of A -share listed companies was the inactivation of the inaccurate subscription target and one year of locking.In advance to determine the two ways: the target of subscribing objects and the lock -up period is 3 years, the funds raised by listed companies through the above two directional issuance methods once exceeded 90%of the total annual equity financing.
The non -public offering of stocks amended in February 2017 enabled the maximum gap between the issuance price of the orientation to issue stocks and the issuance of the secondary market price at that time was only 10%.The regulations have extended the secondary market reduction time of targeted stocks for 1-2 years, respectively.In this way, the original 1 -year -old stock increase of stocks actually need to be locked for about 2 years. The original three -year targeted issue stock actually needs to be locked for about 5 years (including the approval time of more than half a year).The discount rate between the 10%discount between the stock issuance price and the market price cannot cover the market fluctuation risk of 2-5 years. The market risk and the expected income are seriously not matched, which makes it difficult for the one-year directional issue of financing (unless the largeShareholders promised to guarantee the revenue of the bottom), and the three -year directional issuance of financing was basically disappeared.
The directional issuance rules after the change not only make investors' income and risks very disproportionate, but also does not meet the usual convention of stock issuance of listed companies in the world.Although the price discounts of stocks in mature capital markets are about 10%, they are basically lightning allocation. There are neither approval time nor forced locking promises.
The bell must also be a bell man
Since the current liquidity crisis of listed companies and its major shareholders is a series of consequences caused by a series of regulatory policies, the regulatory authorities should still start with the amendment of unreasonable regulatory policies:
First, the pledge ratio of shareholders of listed companies is no longer limited.Set the overall pledge ratio of listed companies shares when the market price is at a high level to help maintain the stability of the control of the listed company. The proportion of the overall pledge ratio of the listed company shares when the market price is at the bottom of the market.The financing environment and the signal that the stock price is at the bottom can be released to the market.
Second, the lock -up price of the three -year -old orientation issuance is issued and no longer restricts the scale of financing.The main purpose of the regulatory authorities amended the directional issuance rules was to prevent the blending of interests between investors and listed companies.Some media have conducted statistical analysis of the income of the three -year fixed increase in the past six months. The proportion of investors' losses has reached more than 50%. It can be seen that the directional additional issuance is not a sale of stable earnings.According to the current regulatory rules, including the approval time of the regulatory authorities, the actual lock -up period of investors in the three -year period is up to 5 years. Investors must be the fundamentals of listed companies as the basis of decision -making, and the medium- and long -term development of listed companies in the medium- and long -term development of listed companiesHave enough confidence.Therefore, the release of the lock -up price of the three -year period of the listed company is not only immediate for alleviating the migration crisis of listed companies, but also to pass a strong positive price signal to the market for small and medium investors in the market.
Third, while the three -year -old targeted issuance lock -up is issued, you can consider setting up a national level of equity investment baseIn conjunction with the actions of the market -oriented M & A fund, it is used to support direct equity financing for private holding of private holding of national industrial policies and national industrial policies.The scale of each participation can be controlled within 30%of the financing amount of the listed company.
However, it is important to emphasize that after the three -year lock -up period expires, funds with relevant state -owned background should entrust professional institutions to gradually withdraw from related investment according to the macroeconomic environment at that time.Compared with suggestions such as providing policy guarantee to private enterprises, which are currently discussing, it is simpler to operate, and follow -up moral risks are smaller.
