Sun Xingjie: Geographical politics overwhelmed the economy. At the G20 summit, we saw an increasingly disappeared world of yesterday, but how the world of tomorrow is unknown.

This year's G20 Argentine Summit may be the least multilateral party; almost no one pays more attention to the joint communiqué reached after the G20 summit, because the focus is on the first long dinner party in China and the United States.The trade war reached by the leaders of China and the United States also made the G20 summit not seem to have no results.

Multi -side platforms and bilateral singing are the biggest highlights of this summit. Seeing or disappearing is news.The original function of the G20 Summit is the coordination of global economic policy. However, no relatively stable geopolitical pattern. Economic cooperation is very difficult. The reform of the WTO and even survive. Under this increasingly tightened international system, it has become a problemEssence

One

The geopolitical color of the G20 Argentine Summit should be the strongest.The Kashuji was killed, and Saudi Arabia attended the summit with great courage to see Salman's shape alone from the picture.French President Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa Bull; Meng expressed strong concern to Salman, especially Macron's statement, which can be said to be a perfect performance, at least expressing Europe's position on this issue on this issueEssence

The death of Kashuji not only made the world's most important oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia in a very embarrassing situation on the international stage, but also caused a great impact on bilateral alliances in the United States-Saudi Arabia.Trump has selected the side of Salman, but the American intelligence department and Congress of the CIA and other Congress still believe that the Prince Salman's prosecution is directly related to the death of Kashuji.The death of Kashuji has become the biggest diplomatic challenge facing Saudi Arabia in the short term. In addition to the continuous war and famine, Saudi Arabia, especially the international image of Crown Salman, has been very negative.

In addition, before the G20, the fierce confrontation of Russia and Ukraine carved the Red Strait put President Putin a lot of pressure.Trump canceled his original plan to meet with Putin at the last moment. During the dinner gap, the two leaders talked a few words, of course, mainly about the Russian problem.What makes Trump worse is that there may be new changes in the survey of the 2016 general election, which is not good for Trump.Putin didn't seem to care about the aborted US -Russian summit meeting. He said that Trump is an adult and he is very experienced.Merkel has contact with Putin during breakfast, hoping that Russia and Ukraine will not upgrade.The EU Council President Tusk called on leaders of various countries to take this opportunity to discuss geopolitical issues such as Syria and Yemen.

The lens that Putin and Salman met with Salman basically reflected the current drama of world politics: a slightly exaggerated smile and grasped by the two people when they met, maybe it was to vent their dissatisfaction, maybe a political performance, showing the unity of the two countries.Of course, it is also the same.Of course, in the face of such a situation, no action in Europe or the United States has taken any actions, and some people think that the West is already a tiger without teeth.

It can be said that geopolitics overwhelmed the geographical economy; the geopolitics that occurred between the G20 member states could not be discussed in multilateral occasions, let alone solve it.Ten years after the G20 has gone through, an increasingly acute problem has emerged: Is it possible to have a multilateral economic cooperation without geopolitical cooperation?When G20 member states adopt increasingly stricter economic sanctions between the death of Kashuji and the Russian and Ukraine conflict, can the G20 still hope that the consensus of collective operations on the global macroeconomic operations will be expected?

Two

At the G20 summit, the logic of the global political and economic system was highlighted.The decoupling has become an indisputable fact. Not only is the relationship between the country decoupled, but the geopolitics and the global economy are also decoupled, and the world has slipped in the direction of the Zero Group.

First, the willingness of the coordination and cooperation of the great country is declining, and friction and even conflicts have become more and more common.To some extent, the contemporary world order is the globalization and globalization of European order. The governance of large powers is the cornerstone of order. It needs to be coordinated between the great powers. The great power is responsible for the peace and development of the world.The G20 is undoubtedly the product of the politics of great powers, a super club composed of major global economies.During the economic crisis, the G20 provided channels for communication and understanding between countries, and also provided a help for the world economy's predicament.Now in the era of the so -called post -crisis, the crystal balls of the Great Depression are gone, and there are more and more obstacles in the cooperation of great powers.

Second, the unbalanced development changed the governance pattern, followed by the re -distribution of responsibilities and power.The rise of emerging economies has not been confirmed, but the rise of China's strength is an indisputable fact.The core reason for Trump withdrawalism is that he is unwilling to bear the cost of global governance, and pays attention to the relative return of the United States; before G20, Trump determined that many countries in the world occupied the United States during an interview with the Wall Street Journal.For cheap, he also lost patience to developing countries, and he wanted to trade.It is not that the United States has encountered challenges, but that the United States is tired of the existing system; it can be said that the United States is the real revisionist country.

Third, it originated from the 1970s and continued to strengthen the global wave after the Cold War, and even reversed.In the past 40 years, globalization has surged like a tide, and the exchanges of global goods, funds, technology and personnel have covered many contradictions.Forty years later, the negative effects of globalization began to be released, and the emphasis on local interests overwhelmed global words. In just two years, global political discourse had a 180 -degree turn.

Fourth, the geopolitical structure that supports globalization is cracking, and the era of multiple power centers is coming.After the Cold War, the United States can also be a single world.After 2001, the global anti -terrorism war has largely shaped the global security discourse and security situation.The United States has made strategic adjustments since 2009 and ended the Iraq war. In 2014, it retreated from Afghanistan. Even when the Syrian crisis and ISIS prosperous, the United States maintained a high degree of restraint.After Trump came to power, trying to shape a cost -effective security structure. Regardless of bilateral military alliances or NATO, allies need to bear more costs.The return of the great country to tradition and strong leaders have come out, and there is no law of diplomacy and security. It has changed due to the situation, and the rules make concessions to strategies.

Three

Sino -US relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world at the moment.At the G20 summit, the importance of Sino -US relations was highlighted.The heads of state of the two countries seized the last important opportunity this year to achieve the meeting, conducted frank consultations on trade issues, and pressed the suspension key for the Sino -US trade war.

The basic consensus reached by both China and the United States includes: Fantney is included in the controlled substances and output this substance to the United States will be subject to legal sanctions; if the transactions of Qualcomm-NXP will be submitted again, China will allow it.It can be said that both of them are specific results and can be performed in the short term.

In addition, the United States does not raise tariffs, and China will purchase agricultural products and energy in the United States to reduce trade surplus and strive to achieve a balance between Sino -US trade.During the high -level consultation between China and the United States in May this year, a similar consensus was basically reached.The key point is that in the next 90 days, China and the United States will negotiate with many issues such as support for property rights protection, non -tariff barriers, networks, and service industries.

It can be said that the Sino -US dollar meeting provided the two countries with a 90 -day negotiation and consultation time. As for the future prospects, it depends on whether the economic officials of both parties can reach a consensus or compromise in this performance issue. Prior to the G20 summit, the information revealed by the United States was relatively tough.But the final result shows that Trump is the final shooter. The White House's pigeons (Kudelo, Mnuchin) and Hawk (Littich, Navarro) both participated in the lunch party.The result is also the result of compromise between the two factions.But for Trump, who is generally active with mercury, consensus is temporary, but the result he wants has not changed.The pigeon is a chance to negotiate, and the hawk is the time limit for negotiations.

Is the US strategy fundamentally changed because of this suspension? It seems that there is no now. For example, a series of speeches of Pence, especially in October, represents the basic attitude of the White House.It is worth noting that the influence of Chinese issue expert Bai Rui is becoming more and more prominent, and the marathon between China and the United States will not stop.On the eve of the G20 summit, the U.S. fleet crossed the Taiwan Strait for the third time this year; the White House trade representative Leitchizer believes that China's changes are minimal within half a year.The present of Navarro and Littich also showed that the team of the trade war was still the same.

Is China and the United States be caught in the quagmire of the Cold War?First of all: What are the elements of the Cold War?Nuclear weapons plus camp -oriented counterpart.Nowadays, there are some elements of Sino -US relations that constitute the Cold War. For example, both countries are nuclear countries, and there are differences in ideological and geopolitics.However, China and the United States are not two parallel markets, but nested together. In the economy, Sino -US relations are the relationship between Sun Wukong and Princess Tie Fan. The real dangerous moment is when Sun Wukong jumped out of the belly of Princess Iron Fan.In addition, there is no corporal counterpart between China and the United States, but flexible diplomacy.Of course, the three -party leader meeting of the United States, Japan and India also showed more and more strategic camp attributes.

At the G20 summit, we saw an increasingly disappeared yesterday world, but how the world of tomorrow is unknown.

(Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view. Responsible for the mailbox [email protected])