Viewpoint
The Sino -US trade war has continued for a while, which has a certain impact on China, the United States, Hong Kong, and the world economy.The Xi special meeting held during the G20 summit this weekend will be an important watershed of the trade war.
From the perspective of the development of the trade war, the Xi special meeting may still promote the short -term reconciliation of China and the United States to cool down for the trade war.The more likely to last ten years, even decades.In the long competition, China should strive to deepen economic transformation and gradually reduce the constraints of the United States.
On Monday (26th), US President Trump said in an interview that it was very impossible to cancel the original plan. It increased the tariffs worth US $ 200 billion in Chinese imports from 10%to 25%from January 1st;It is also pointed out that if the weekend Xi special will not reach an agreement, tariffs will be imposed on the remaining 267 billion yuan of goods.
Before Trump's expectations, he was a tone of this month and threatened with tariffs. It may be worried about whether things would lose money.It is necessary to know that after Trump's administration, he has always regarded promoting the US economy as its main political achievements, and various polls also show that the American people are quite affirmed by their economic policies.
However, since October, various data in the United States reflect the slowdown in economic growth, and the market is concerned about factors such as the Sino -US trade war and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which has caused US stocks to plummet and present a typical bear market form; on the other handThe effect of Trownch's tax reduction measures gradually dispersed in 2019, and the Democratic Party has repeated the House of Representatives, hindering Trump's launch of new economic stimulus measures, which threatened Trump's political status.
In other words, if Trump wants to successfully re -election in 2020, he needs to keep the current economic boom in the United States.If he insists on deepening the trade war, I am afraid that the US economy will face greater difficulties in the coming year and reduce his chances of re -election.In reality, if Trump has reached an agreement with China in the Xite Association, it can use China to increase the purchase of US goods as a motivation to stimulate the US economy in the next round.
Therefore, the opportunities of the two parties of the Xi special association are not high, and it is likely that both parties will want to take this opportunity to reach a suspension agreement.Yesterday (27th), the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that Trump believes that there is a good opportunity to reach an agreement with China, showing that the meeting is still worth looking forward to.
However, the internal anti -Chinese eagle forces have grown and the thinking of the United States and the rise of China's rising. Even though Trump has made strategic retreat for political reality, Sino -US relations will still be full of twists and turns in the future.
From the U.S. admission to China, it has gradually expanded from economic and trade to diplomacy and security. It can be seen that the United States' tough policy for China is a long -term strategy.Essence
Therefore, even if the Xi will reach a certain agreement, it is likely that it will only bring a short ceasefire, not the real stop war.Before and after Trump's 2020 election, the United States is likely to once again provoke trade contradictions.
In fact, the United States may have achieved part of its purpose.The Sino -US trade war and conflicts have been deeply imprinted in the international community this year. Most of the comments believe that Sino -US friction will continue to heat up in the future.
Even if the United States is willing to let go of the controversy first, the company has expected tariffs and protectionism to continue in the future, and it is likely that the industrial chain will continue to leave China. Investors may be more prudent under the major question of the contradiction between China and the United States, and investors may be more prudent.Essence
Sino -US frictions are likely to be durable, but there are ups and downs.If China can seize the opportunity to fight for time and promote industrial transformation and economic opening up, it can naturally avoid the United States' constraints and no longer be threatened by the US hegemony.
