Yu Dayong

On October 14, Bavaria and Hesson, on October 28, the scenes of newcomers laughed and the old people were crying.

In the right camp, the party (AFD) of the party (AFD) for five years not only entered the two State Council for the first time, but also made a high -profile chapel with a proud record of 9%to 10%.Social Federation) Traditional conservative parties such are defeated.

In Zuo Ying, the century -old shop of the Democratic Party (SPD) lost almost 11%of the votes.Essence

This development trend reflects the changes in the German political spectrum in recent years, and it is worth spending time to analyze and track.

Heroes don't ask the source

As the product of the times, the rise and fall of political parties is closely related to political traditions, cultural thoughts and social movements.Among the current active German political parties, only the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party are probably only from the large -scale social movement.

If we regard the merger date (1875) of the two workers' political organizations of Lhasar and Elison, as the beginning of the party's founding of the Social Democratic Party, it is not difficult to identify its political genes and foundations: workers in the industrial revolutionClass.

When the Social Democratic Party was founded, it was the breakthrough and consolidation period of the German industrial revolution.In 1870, the proportion of Germany in the total industrial output of the world rose to 13.2%, surpassing France, ranking among developed industrial countries.

However, the accumulation of capital is at the expense of labor, and the class that creates value has become a victim of industrialization. While human beings obtain material civilization, they have experienced humanitarian degradation.Do you want people or capital?The Social Democratic Party has proposed fair and just political demands.

At that time, the elites who led this social movement, such as Karl Marx, Ferdinand Lassalle, Karl Kautsky, Eduard Bernstein, are a group of international leaders who have influenced so far.Various trends of thoughts are political assets that are proud of the left.

After 100 years, the society has improved in the unremitting struggle of the left: the phenomenon of capital during the original accumulation period has been suppressed, and the benefits of workers have been continuously improved.However, the contradictions between capital and human -oriented still exist, but it is just changed.

In fact, people are not only related to production conditions, but also involved the natural environment that people depend on survival; and industrialization has destroyed nature from the beginning, but people have no time to take care of the ecological environment before improving production conditions.

The economic leap after the war led to a more serious damage to nature.At this time, people gradually began to realize the importance of ecology to human life.

After the emergence of new social contradictions and problems, the new social movement will emerge.

The private environmental protection organizations born in the 1950s and 1960s have gradually become a strong social movement.By the 1970s and 1980s, under the influence of the September 8th movement of sexual liberation and the consensus of the Cold War, the consensus of ecological protection was becoming increasingly politicized.

In this way, the Red and Green Party conforms to the trend of their respective historical periods, forming the tradition and modern two in the left -wing camp in Germany.

There are the same components in the political concepts of the two parties, but they are different; they are both complementary (such as the joint group of the local and federal governments), and they also compete with each other (compete for voters, compete for the status of the boss of the Zuo Ying).

This Zuo Fei Zuo

According to the author's observation, there are several main reasons for the failure of the Social Democratic Party:

First, the direction is unknown, and it is uncertain.In order to win the middle voters, the Social Democratic Party had to give up some leftist characteristics and traditions to cater to capital and enterprises.The Red and Green Government led by Schroder has greatly reduced the 2010 agenda of social welfare. Although it saved the German economy, which was known as the European sick husband at the time, it eventually broke the traditional relationship between the Social Democratic Party and the poor.

Second, use traditional methods to cope with new challenges.Not long ago, the polls show that the people are satisfied with their current economic income, but they are not security in the future.However, the Political Party seems to have not yet reached the pulse of the times. It is still solving social problems along the traditional means such as the average increasing tax, which cannot provide voters with a new modern solution.

Third, cater to more than there, insist on lack.As a result, there are both external causes and internal reasons: the external cause is that Merkel has the political wrist that it uses for me. It is quite friendly to the friendly party, so that the other party loses himself unknowingly.The internal cause is that the Social Democratic Party is overwhelming. In order to participate in the governance, it often gives up the principle and enlighten.

Fourth, lack of halo characters.After the war, the Social Democratic Party was a personal talent. The dazzling political parties had personal charm leaders such as Schumacher, Brandt, Schmidt, and Schroder.They have created a new era and have influenced generations.Unfortunately, today's Social Democratic Party leadership is flat, and the yellow and yellow are not connected.

The Green Party's current market has risen sharply. In fact, there is no secret, but it is related to the following factors:

I. The Internal Party of the Alliance Party and the Social Democratic Party have slightly strengthened the status of the Green Party.

Prior to June this year, the results of the Alliance Party's polls have been relatively stable, never less than 30%, and the Green Party has been hovering between 11%and 13%.Unexpectedly, Zehofer, chairman of the CSU (CSU), was selected for Bavaria and torn his face with Merkel again due to the problem of refugees, which led to a great discount on the prestige of the Alliance Party.

Because the Social Democratic Party competes with the Alliance Party in the middle, the political proposal has been embarrassed and ambiguous, and the credibility continues to decline.The Green Party uses the gap left by the Social Democratic Party on the left to give voters a new option for modern people.

Second, the main topic of the Green Party cut into reality.

Environmental protection, anti -war, democracy, fairness, humanity, feminism, Europe, and openness. All these green parties' traditional demands are increasingly practical in modern society.More importantly, the Green Party has got rid of the state of being too emphasized.For example, its anti -capital greedy, but no longer opposed to capital; it adheres to environmental protection, but also take into account the right to survival of the enterprise.

Third, the power of the party is smooth.

The left party is generally fierce and universal, which is related to their anti -authoritative political genes.The Green Party is also divided into two major camps: extremist and realistic factions, but since the Green Party has actively participating in politics, it is basically a realist faction.At the beginning of this year, the leadership was re -elected. The two new chairmen (Habeck and Berberg) were full of power and popularity, which fully reflects the vitality, modern, close, and wise image of the Green Party.

The different situations of the two parties of the Zuo Ying reflect the different consequences of the German social transformation, but also the vitality of a political party lies in its own resistance and self -healing power.

The Social Democratic Party is currently at the intersection of development: either he has become a second -class party or a self -reinforcement.If it continues to be attached to power, it will not be placed to death (Xiaye), and the hope of later life is not much hope.

The Green Party should avoid the success of excessive consumption and overdrawn, and it should not be too complacent, because this success is largely related to the weakness of the opponent's weakness and the role of many foreign causes (climate change, diesel gates scandal, etc.).

Water can carry a boat or cover the boat.

In democratic elections, there are many tourists (voters walking in each party).They choose the Green Party this time, and they may go to the Alliance Party next time.Therefore, as a modern political party, we must not only consolidate and expand their party membership and fan bases, but also be good at capturing the hearts of these posts.

The author is a German time -rating columnist

The different situations of the two states of the left camp reflect the different consequences of the transformation of German society, but also the vitality of a political party lies in its own resistance and self -healing strength./p>