Too dependence on technology transfer has become a major reason to restrict China's economic growth. Trump's dare to launch a trade war on China is also aware of this.
The common word of trade has become the world's hottest vocabulary with a series of economic policies of President Trump in 2018. Trade deficit and frequent project accounts have become hot spots on the streets.Everyone is discussing trade issues. Everyone can tell a bunch of truths, but who can chase the trading of trade clearly?The 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics Edmond Bull; Edmund Phelps raised this problem when he was interviewed by FT Chinese website a week ago.
In Fernus's view, today's elite classes in charge of national economic and political decision -making urgently need to be tuned in economics to better govern the country. More importantly, the general public also needs to master the basic knowledge of economics, so that they have the most.Basic identification ability has an independent judgment and thinking ability of the government's public policy and the market behavior of the enterprise, so as to be responsible for their own votes and behaviors.
What lessons should China learn from the trade war?Fernus believes that it has become a major reason to restrict the growth of China's economic growth for technology transfer. Trump dares to launch a trade war and also sees it.For China, technology transfer cannot exist forever. Only local innovation can eternal tide.
China has excessive dependence on the U.S. and European advanced technology, and local innovation capabilities need to be improved.
From the perspective of Fernus, the global trade friction caused by Trump gave China a lesson, that is, economic growth alone was not enough.The key to the next growth of the Chinese economy lies in local innovation capabilities, which is the protection of property rights, especially intellectual property rights.This is also the point of view of Felpsus' main prosperity published in 2013.
In this discussion of the bottom -up innovation -driven economic growth, Felpsus, a master of economic masters who often researched employment, inflation, and growth, set a different approach to discuss from the source of economic growth.In his opinion, any economic, monetary policy, and trade policy are not as good as encouraging innovation to contribute to economic growth.
Fernus said that China's economic growth has been inseparable from technology transfer with the United States and Europe in the past few decades.Later hair China learned advanced technology, improved labor productivity, released the creativity of workers, promoted economic growth, and achieved curve overtaking.
There are also innovations in China, and the proportion of contribution to economic growth is even greater than today's United States, but compared to the 1960s of the US economy, China ’s local innovation is not enough today. Fernus said.
For technology transfer, this has become a major reason to restrict China's economic growth. Trump's dare to launch a trade war is also aware of this.For China, technology transfer cannot exist forever. Only local innovation can eternal tide.
In Fernus's view, the protection of property rights, especially intellectual property rights is the key to innovation.Of course, it is also necessary to create a more suitable environment for innovation. The public sector generally lacks business vision and experience, and state -owned enterprises are not willing to take risks. Only private sectors have the advantages of innovation. They should give them more policy support and financial support.In order to bred multiple local innovations.
At the same time, China has more urgent real problems, aging population.With the decline and even disappearance of the dividend of the labor population, at the same time, China's economic growth has brought about the level of wage, and China will encounter severe challenges in the future not far.
I am worried that China in the future will repeat the mistakes of today's Europe. The decline in innovation capabilities will disappear when the demographic dividends are encountered. The stagnation of economic growth will bring many unimaginable issues. Fernus is worried.
Re -understand the nature of trade
The essence of trade is transactions, which is beyond doubt.Since humans have bid farewell to objects transactions and entering currency transactions, any transaction has a trade surplus party and a trade deficit.Essence
Book), I am a trade surplus. I sold the goods (books) and received money.But this does not show that I take advantage of your cheap. If you suffer a loss, it is the loser.
Another thing that needs to be pointed out is the comparative advantage behind trade.The reason why international trade is generated is because the comparative advantages between different countries are different.For example, the cost of US human resources is high. Although manufacturing companies can survive in the United States, high labor costs will devour companies' profits.In other words, if Apple's mobile phones are produced in the United States today, they can either only raise prices to maintain their current profit margins, or they can only sacrifice profits and pay higher costs.
Compared with China, the United States has a leading technical advantage in technology. Compared with the United States, China has a lower price advantage in terms of labor costs. Of course, smart American companies will choose to transfer low -value manufacturing links to moreLow China to manufacture.
According to Trump's overall logic, if the United States must do it by itself and reject globalization division of labor, then it is necessary to sacrifice the comparative advantages of the United States and allow more people who can have higher value -added things to work in low low value.The value -added manufacturing work further reduces the salary of low -income people in the United States.
The third concept that needs to be paid attention to is bilateral trade deficits and multilateral trade deficits.It has been mentioned before that any bilateral trade will have a trade surplus and a trade deficit. It is not enough to conclude that only the bilateral trade situation is not enough.The real problem is the multilateral trade deficit.
Using the above example, in addition to spending money to buy books, you also spent a lot of goods, all expenditures added more than all your income, and when it is not sustainable, there will be problems.But at this time you can't blame the product too attractive, let yourself buy so much, but should think from the inside, should I cut off the unreasonable and unnecessary expenditure; or each expenditure is important, so I am that I amIt is not necessary to find a way to increase income, or use some financial products and tools to make your income and expenditure more reasonable and more sustainable.
Therefore, for the United States, multilateral trade deficit is a long -term problem, not caused by China's trade surplus. Of course, the latter will increase the deficit, but it is not the root cause.What the United States needs more is internal economic adjustment and industrial transformation to make the national economy more reasonable and sustainable. At the same time, it is constantly increasing its comparative advantages. Low -end and dense manufacturing industries are definitely not the future of the United States.Type trade is the future growth point.
From Fernus's view, Trump's economic and trade policies have been formulated very badly, which will lead to a large increase in the US government's expenditure, the decline in profitability of enterprises, and the decline in national income.
I think Trump's successor will be more troublesome, because Trump's economic policy will leave a heavy financial burden on the latecomers, and Fernus commented in this way.
Social significance of economics
Felpster emphasized the social significance of economics in the moment.nowMany arguments and differences are fundamentally a problem in the category of economics. If everyone has a basic understanding of economics and has a consensus on some basic core concepts, many disputes will not exist.
In Fernus's view, today's elite classes in charge of national economic and political decision -making need to carefully learn the classics of economics, so as to manage the country more scientifically; more importantly, the general public also needs to master the foundation of economics.Knowledge allows them to have the most basic identification ability, and have an independent judgment and thinking ability to the government's public policy and the market behavior of the enterprise so that they can be responsible for their votes and behaviors.
Of course, Fernus also believes that economic and financial knowledge should be used as a compulsory course for each citizen, so as to reasonably plan every stage of his life.It's like the growth of wealth in a country. It requires long -term economic planning, diversified financial innovation and healthy credit market support, and constantly encourages the public to participate in innovation, investment and consumption in order to bring the country's prosperity;
In addition to the prosperity of life, in addition to continuously welcome challenges and self -worth, it also needs long -term economic planning capabilities. The grasp of financial investment opportunities and the ability to control risks can appropriately use financial leverage to achieve value growth., Continue to improve the quality of life.
Therefore, from the president of the United States to ordinary people, everyone needs to master the common sense of economics, have financial concepts and open and innovative ideas, in order to help themselves to cope with the rapidly changing society today and make more valuable choices and decisions.
In the end, Fernus brought the same suggestion to the leaders of China and the United States: the happiness of the people is not only the great prosperity of material growth and wage growth, but also the happiness of the quality of life and the achievements of self -realization.The spiritual prosperity brought by the latter is the real starting point of the country's policy.
