Zhao Minghao
Recently, US President Trump said that he would meet at the G20 summit at the end of November. The two parties may also reach an agreement on economic and trade issues. He has instructed cabinet officials to prepare.However, the chairman of the White House National Economic Commission, Kudlo, etc. subsequently stated that Trump did not make this request, and there was still a long way to go to negotiate in the United States and China.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Justice also announced that the state -owned enterprise in China, Fujian Jinhua Company, said it was suspected of the intellectual property rights of the US Semiconductor Corporation Meiguang Technology; the US Department of Commerce will also introduce a new policy to strengthen export control to China in the near future.Obviously, although China has an openness and positive attitude towards solving economic and trade frictions, the United States seems to have not stopped intensifying the willingness to trade in China. It is difficult to end the Trump administration's new round of pressure on China in the short term.
Worry about technical leadership
For Trump, economic security is national security, and the friction of economic and trade with China is an important step in dealing with strategic competition from China.The reason why the United States is not easy to stop is because behind the economic and trade friction between the two parties is the competition of the technical leadership.As James Lewis, vice president of the US Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS), said that economic and trade frictions are related to trade deficits and technological advantages, or will evolve into a wider strategic confrontation.
In recent years, the United States' judgment of economic and trade relations in the United States and China has shifted to negative, and no longer believes in win -win cooperation.In their opinion, China is systematically acquiring American technology through mandatory technology transfer and mergers and acquisitions of American start -ups to harm the long -term economic benefits and national security of the United States.
On the one hand, the United States believes that the operation of American companies in China is at the cost of losing a lot of technology.A survey of the Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce this spring shows that one -fifth of member companies have stated that they have been under pressure to transfer technology to China.The radical eagle and senior presidential adviser Navarro in the White House decision -making circle led a report on China's economic aggression on the United States. In his opinion, American companies seeking to enter the Chinese market are naive and arrogant, and China is acquiring technologyThe means are clever, and the combination of the two is fatal for American companies.
On the other hand, the United States is very worried about the investment behavior of Chinese companies in the United States, and is worried that sensitive technology and related technical talents will be transferred to China.According to statistics from the US Consulting Company Rongding Group, in the past few years, American technology startups have received a large number of venture capital from China, accounting for about 15%of the total investment.
These startups are often committed to research and development of breakthrough technology, and many of them are military -civilian dual -use technology, which has aroused the vigilance of the United States.In addition, Chinese companies such as Baidu, Tencent, Huawei, and other Chinese companies have set up R & D centers in Silicon Valley and other places in the United States in recent years, and have extended many American scientific and technological talents.
The modernization of foreign investment risk review proposed by the US Congress has officially become a law in August this year, stipulating that any M & A trading activities involving key technologies involving the United States will be stricter.Some members of Congress do not deny that the bill is aimed at China.
In the eyes of many Americans, China is currently not only in high -end technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and new materials to the United States.powerful.A study by the National Science Foundation believes that in the past 10 years, the export share of mid -range technology products made in China has doubled global exports to 32%, surpassing the United States and the European Union.
The domestic rate of Chinese export products has also increased from 60%to 80%, reducing dependence on developed countries in key parts and components.Apple in the United States had only seven suppliers in China in 2012, and in 2017, it has increased to 28.This reflects that China moves towards a higher position in the global industrial chain.
More importantly, the United States is worried that the loss of technical leadership, including advanced machinery, large ships and other manufacturing capabilities, will seriously affect the military industry foundation in the United States and threaten national security interests.In early October, the White House announced a report written by the US Department of Defense, saying that the U.S. military rely too much on the procurement of key raw materials and components, which constitutes a huge and increasing risk.
The report made a systematic assessment of the military industrial foundation and supply chain in the United States, and found nearly 300 loopholes, including China's control of global rare earth supply, and the main supplier of Chinese companies to become the chemical raw materials required by U.S. ammunition.The United States is also worried that due to the production of more than 40%of the worldwide copies in China, there is a risk of China's implanted virus invasion of the US defense system.
It can be found that the United States' conflict between the economic and trade conflict with China and the deepening of technological export control and investment restrictions have a very complicated and profound background, and have surpassed the category of shrinking the trade deficit.These problems can be easily solved by one or two protocols.
As CSIS's senior China issue expert Scott Kennedy said, the eagle figures within the US government did have a greater ambition: transfer the supply chain from Asia to the United States, and let the two major economies of the United States and China realizeLong -term division.Ely Ratner, Vice President of the New American Safety Center, also said at a seminar organized by the Atlantic Monthly that the current discussion internally discussed by the US government is not to decimpart Decoupling, but to decide.
Need to twist the United States
Although the domestic hardship against China is fierce, trying to use economic and trade frictions to further promote the adjustment of the United States' strategy towards China in the direction of confrontation, many people of insight have also proposed that decoupling is not realistic, and it is even more inconsistent with the interests of the United States.
Susan Thornton, who is responsible for China and Asian affairs and stepped down in July this year, said that if the United States cannot find a way to cooperate with China, we will usher in an extremely difficult future.She believes that China is different from the Soviet Union, and the United States does not have an economic mechanism that can beolate China.The economy of the two countries is increasingly linked to separate the US economy from China, and the United States itself will go bankrupt.
In fact, the negative impact of trade disputes on the United States is becoming increasingly manifested, as the former US deputy trading representative Carter said: we have the risk of overestimating our own chips.Contrary to Trump's expectations, the US trade deficit has risen without falling. In the first half of this year, it reached 291.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.2%over the same period last year.Fed officials are worried that the rising price of raw materials and components in trade disputes will weaken the purchasing power of American families and seriously affect the confidence, investment and employment of American companies.
A study by the Brucks Society estimates that China's tariff retaliation measures will cause 1.1 million jobs in relevant counties supporting Trump.
In addition, Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, believes that the Trump administration's trade offensive is keeping long -term investment away from the United States.According to statistics from the Economic Analysis Administration of the US Department of Commerce, in the first half of 2018, the direct investment in the United States was only 44.7 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 72%year -on -year.China's direct investment in the United States is particularly showing a significant decline.According to the statistics of Rongding Group, China's investment in the United States in 2016 was about $ 46 billion, and in 2017, it fell to $ 29 billion, a decrease of about 36%.
The decourse will have a negative impact on both China and the United States, and for a relatively weak party, this impact will be greater.Although the United States has exaggerated the pressure of technology competition from China, the Chinese government has a clear understanding of its own technical strength, industrial level and innovative capabilities in its country, and the industrial upgrading of Chinese companies is also at a critical stage of climbing.It is not necessary to deny that the United States has clearly regarded China as a strategic competitor. Whether China is willing or not, it is likely to be pulled into a long -lasting contest.
If this contest is compared to boxing competitions, try to twist with your opponent.A wise choice will only let the United States let go of hands and feet, even more unscrupulous when punching.
In other words, in the face of the pressure of the United States in many fields such as economy, security, diplomacy, China must calm down, maintain a certain force, and be good at rotating, and cannot dance with the rhythm of the United States to China.It is necessary to gradually accept the new reality of rising competitive factors in Sino -US relations and entering the difficult period of adjustment, but also to see that there are still many rational power in the United States.
In the past 40 years, the development of Sino -US relations has been a foundation for the exchanges between the two countries, and it is not so easy to be destroyed.At the same time, it is also necessary to realize that although Trump looks aggressive, he actually faces many pressures brought about by internal affairs, economic and international hotspots.There are many contradictions in the world, and there is still a lot of space for China -US relations.
It is particularly important that it is necessary to combine China's strategic arrangement to promote the new round of reform and opening up, solve the problems of imbalanced and inadequate development of Sino -US economic and trade relations, continuously expand common interests and cooperation space, and build a stable economic economy economy.Base.In September of the Chinese American Chamber of Commerce, a survey of more than 430 US companies in China showed that since the trade dispute, about one -third of companies have considered postponing or canceling investment in China. 52%of companies feel the impact of non -tariff measures in China.Essence
The Chinese government has clearly put forward six stable requirements such as foreign investment, which naturally involves about 68,000 companies in China.It is necessary to use the opportunity to commemorate the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up, in accordance with the establishment of a set of a new pattern of comprehensive opening up in China, implement relevant reform measures as soon as possible, improve the business environment, release more policy bonuses to foreign companies, including American companies, and put foreign capital to foreign companies, and put foreign capital.Keep.
In addition, new platforms such as China International Import Expo can be used to increase imports from the United States, and continue to promote Sino -US economic and trade cooperation in energy, infrastructure construction and other fields, and promote financial cooperation in financial services.The Sino -US Financial Round Table Forum held at Beijing in September released positive signals to the outside world. This new dialogue mechanism was co -hosted by Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan and the former president of Goldman Sachs Group.The person in charge of the enterprise.
There are also many opportunities in the field of local cooperation between China and the United States. It is advisable to combine the characteristics of different states and different constituencies in the United States to enhance communication and contact with local governments and parliament members of the United States.Create more employment opportunities and promote the in -depth development of Sino -US economic and trade and investment relations.
In short, the complexity and long -term nature of Sino -US economic and trade frictions should not be underestimated, especially to see the technical competition and strategic security factors behind this problem.Economic and trade frictions also largely reflect the profound differences between China and the United States in the national MDASH; social / government MDASH; market relations and economic development methods.
In addition, it is necessary to see that the competition between China and the United States in different fields is actually interconnected and has an increasingly outstanding overallness, cross -domain, and linkage.It is necessary to think more from the perspective of political economy and respond to the friction of Sino -US economic and trade frictions, especially to effectively prevent strategic security issues such as Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to form negative resonance to avoid further evolving competition relationships in the economic field into the economic cold war, and then thenFundamentally erodes the foundation of Sino -US relations.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
It is not necessary to deny that the United States has clearly regarded China as a strategic competitor. Whether China is willing or not, it is likely to be pulled into a long -lasting contest.If this contest is compared to boxing competitions, it is a wise choice to try to twist with the opponent. Decumbling will only let the United States let go of your feet, and it will be even more unscrupulous when punching.
