Author: Lee Wo Wall
The trade war against China is the consensus between the United States and Republican parties. After the election in the United States, this policy has not changed.Therefore, in the Pakistani APEC speech on November 17, Vice President Pence fiercely criticized China ’s Belt and Road Initiative as a debt diplomacy to countries along the route;unbalanced.At the same time, Pence also reiterated Trump's Indo -Pacific strategy as an extremely firm and lasting commitment to the Indo -Pacific region; he could not accommodate the empire and aggression with the Indo -Pacific region to secretly criticize China.
However, Trump, who has always been black -faced, has played a white face this time, hoping that China can provide a clear plan for trading in the near future.It is reported that mainland China has proposed a response list including 142 items in accordance with the requirements of the United States;Theft of intellectual property rights and technology transfer; 1 allows Americans to have their own companies in China.Obviously, China cannot accept this demand.In particular, Trump recently proposed to restrict voice -to -smart phones and self -driving AI technologies, as well as related technology exports such as super computers to China.In accordance with this view, this control will make the US -China trade tension more difficult to ease.According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the import amount of China Integrated Circuit (IC) has reached 1.739 trillion yuan alone in the first October this year alone.From this point of view, this technology blockade is far more damage to China than tariffs.
On the other hand, the predecessor's tariff on steel and aluminum classes has caused a lawsuit against the affected trading partner.However, at the recent WTO conference, the United States has accused China of using the WTO to carry out non -market policies, which has triggered a strong rebound in China.The White House economic adviser Hassert also threatened that China is a member of the WTO, but the behavior is not close. It can be deported to China to expel the WTO; and Trump will be planned according to the original plan that it will be imported from Chinese products by US $ 20 billion next year.Tariffs have increased from 10 ﹪ to 25 ﹪. Unless the concession plan mentioned in China can be recognized by Trump at the G20 Special Conference at the end of the month, it is difficult to have room for turning.
The US dollar hegemony is an important cornerstone for the United States to construct a superpower. In the past, the United States had indeed played a considerable role in promoting the development of global economic economic development by maintaining the basic order of economic globalization.And Trump's greatness and priority of the United States and the United States are undoubtedly the position of defending its global political and economic and US dollar hegemony, and it is also a specific display of the US hegemony.It's just that Trump's technique is different from the past.
This year coincides with the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening up of the mainland, and it is also a turbulent year. After 30 years of high -speed growth, the mainland has avoided the financial tsunami in 2008. In 2010, GDP surpassed Japan in one fell swoop and became the second largest economy in the world.For the United States, China is definitely the country with the greatest threat.Whether the two major US -China economies have fallen into the Xunxidd trap have always been a heated discussion.In other words, China's rise must challenge the US hegemony, and the United States will inevitably respond to the threat of China's rise. The confrontation between the two sides may expand from the trade war to exchange rate war, military and scientific and technological warfare.The G20 is about to be held, and the Xi special meeting is not performed first, because the meeting may determine the trend of the US -China trade war, and also affects global trade and economic growth, and even the fluctuations in the financial market, which is worthy of attention.
(The author is a professor at the Department of Finance and Finance of Tamkang University and deputy director of the Cross -Strait Financial Research Center)
