Shen Jianguang: Preventing liquidity traps is based on the use of market -oriented means to embrace the destructive creation advocated by Xiong Peter.Excessive through administrative means, the effect is often different.
#8232;#8232;#8232;#8232; Recently, external problems have been used to describe the dilemma of China's economy in 2018.There are somewhat excessive elements of this situation.At the beginning of 2018, the downlink pressure on the risk of trade war and the downward pressure on the Chinese economy was generally underestimated. At that time, it was expected that the Chinese economy entered the new cycle and the Trump trade war was mostly the mainstream.
Looking forward to 2019, in view of the turbulence of the Sino -US financial market since the trade war, the negative impact on the two parties has become increasingly larger, and the motivation for temporary compromises between China and the United States is relatively strong.The risk of trade war is expected to be slowed down.And a risk that is more worthy of attention may come from the inside, that is, whether China can avoid falling into a liquidity trap.
The term liquidity trap is derived from a hypothesis proposed by Keynes, referring to the increase in any currency when the interest rate is reduced to the point where it is incompetent.Demand and prices do not have any impact, and the economy has fallen into long -term shrinkage.Japan, after the crushing real estate bubble in the 1990s, was seen as the first typical country to fall into a liquidity trap.
In recent years, discussions about Chinese -style liquidity traps have been discussing.It is generally believed that although China does not have a traditional mobility trap in the traditional sense, considering that the effectiveness of China's monetary policy has been reduced, the Chinese economy has actually shown the characteristics of liquidity traps to a certain extent.It is highly reflected in: Since the beginning of this year, in the face of economic decline and insufficient investment, monetary policy has been significantly loose recently, but it has not been able to drive the emergence of wide credit.Although the capital interest rate has declined and the market liquidity has been relieved, the demand for loans is still insufficient, credit data is weak, funds are accumulated between banks, and they fail to flow to the real economy.
From a wider range of perspective, the emergence of this dilemma is not unique to China.Since the financial crisis, from the performance of major central banks around the world, compared with China, Europe, America and Japan also have the problem of decreased monetary policy effectiveness.For example, since the financial crisis, even if the central banks of developed countries have generally implemented loose monetary policy, the currency multiplier has been greatly reduced.During the ten years of 2007-2017, the basic currencies of the United States, the euro area, and the Bank of Japan expanded 5.1, 3.9, and 4.5 times, respectively, and correspondingly, the broad currency was expanded by only 2, 1.6 and 1.4 times.In contrast, China's broad currency expansion speed is greater than the speed of basic currency expansion. The 10 -year basic currency expansion is 2.7 times, and the general currency has increased by nearly 5 times. This period is also the process of significant leverage in China.
However, in my opinion, with the advancement of China's deleveraging and the decline in capital returns, currency multiplications will also show a downward trend in the future.The reason is that, on the one hand, from the perspective of demand, many corporate debt burdens, increased interest costs, decreased profitability, decreased profit margins, and weak demand for real economic loans; on the other handFor the allocation of credit resources on the real estate and financing platform, but currently the real estate regulation and suppression of real estate project credit restrictions, infrastructure investment is subject to aggravation of local debt burden, long return on infrastructure project investment, low yields, etc.Low.
In order to resolve this problem, in the nearly period of time, China's decision -making level has accelerated a series of policies and measures.Including encourage banks to tilt credit resources to private enterprises, and even propose quantitative targets, such as the rules of the 13th and Five -Year Plan, to guide bank behavior; 1 Special fund is established to inject cash flow into enterprises through government platforms and capital markets to provide liquidity to provide liquidity.; And for companies with stock pledge risks, it is recommended that measures such as forcibly losing their positions.
In the author's opinion, the above approach is a means of short -term emergency management. In emergency situations, it can prevent the emergence of expected deterioration and financial risks to a certain extent. However, in the long run, the above means also have obvious administrative instruction characteristicsIf the duration is too long, it is not only difficult to fundamentally improve the profit of the corporate, but there are disadvantages, that is, the policy is too concerned about the short -term goal, the lack of the awareness of the rules, the sustainability is questioned, and it is easy to repeat.Entrepreneur confidence is insufficient.
Xu Zhong, director of the Central Bank Research Bureau, also showed that short -term demand management and structural reforms could not be confused at the recent CPPCC.In its opinion, the current situation of macro -control in China should have maintained stable legal, regulations, and systems as a means of macro -control.Price policies, land policies, environmental protection policies, and regulatory policies have also been given the functions of macro -control, and the extension of macro -regulation has been expanded infinitely.If the macro -control is excessively undertaken the goal of medium- and long -term reform, and promotes structural reforms with administrative regulation methods, there will be a situation of death and chaos as soon as it is closed.
From this perspective, the author believes that the basis of preventing China from being trapped into a liquidity trap is to adopt a market -oriented method of resolution and go out of the predicament through market -oriented reforms, that is, embracing the destructive creation advocated by Xiong Peter.After passing the administrative means, after repeated trials, structural illness still exists, and the effect is often different.
Taking Japan as an example, a large number of zombie companies exist, and the continuous rescue of banks for related companies is an important reason for Japan to fall into a liquidity trap.In the past, there were a large number of state -owned enterprises in China. Even if there were losses, they could enjoy the support of government and bank credit. In fact, a considerable part of the characteristics of zombie enterprises. The current private enterprise is in crisis.Without distinction, this treatment or even greatly promoted to private enterprises. In the long run, it will weaken the vitality of Chinese enterprises, further reduce the return on funds, and further exacerbate the risk of Chinese -style liquidity traps.
In summary, the slow release of the risk of trade war and the turning of domestic policies, the market is not easy to be empty for the Chinese economy in 2019.What is really worthy of attention is that in the long run, how can China avoid falling into a liquidity trap.In the author's opinion, China and Japan are obviously different. At that time, Japan's trap in the real sense began in the destruction of real estate bubbles. At present, the Chinese real estate market is still better than Japan.There is still a lot of room for the economy.
The key to the future is whether to respect the laws of economic laws, strengthen the awareness of rules, avoid the generalization of macro -control policies, and get out of the predicament through market -oriented means.In the author's opinion, the resolution of marketization reform in the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee is very clear. In the futureSexual trap.
Note: This article only represents the author's view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
