Economic Daily
The Sino-US Xi special meeting will join the dinner after the G20 summit this Saturday. Global expects that the two leaders will discuss consensus on trade issues and resolve the US-China trade conflict.However, Bloomberg columnist John Authers believes that special and Xi talks about the two major traps in China, just like the two sides standing in the world's largest geopolitical fault shouting each other, talking and stopping the chance of fighting.
If there is any progress in the special practice, it may motivate the financial market to rise next Monday.However, Osus expected that after the special practice, the two major issues will still be unreasonable: First, can the Chinese economy continue to grow rapidly and avoid falling into the middle income trap?Second, can the United States face large forces in China, can the two major economies avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap?Ancient Greek historians pointed out that the reason why the Berobinonia war broke out was because the rise of Athens threatened Spartan hegemony, which inevitably fought in the two strongs.
Let's talk about Xiu Xidide's trap first.This trap includes three elements: fear, interests, dignity.The threat of the existing hegemony noticing that the rise of emerging forces often strives to defend the vested economic interests due to fear and anxiety.The most important thing is that whether it is the dignity of the state or leader, it is not to be lost for existing hegemony; the more emerging the power is to show the performance, the more it conflicts with the interests of the existing hegemony.The global attitude survey of Pew Research Center in the spring of 2017 shows that in the minds of Europeans, China has surpassed the United States and jumped into the world's prevailing economy.
For the time being, aside from military conflicts, the United States and China relations have far exceeded the scope of trade.The United States' dissatisfaction with China is concentrated on stealing smart property rights, but it is also not pleasing to other acts of China. For example, the pipelines that are trying to obtain local natural resources in Africa and Latin America, the establishment of the Chinese version of the World Bank Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the intention of intending through the One BeltIt plans to revive the ancient Silk Road.Other conflict points also include foreign companies' entry into the Chinese market to be blocked and China control RMB exchange rates.These issues are discussing the theme of this special discussion theme MDASH; tariff MDASH; there are many overlap, but the United States impose tariffs on Chinese import goods, which is roughly used to force Beijing to sit down to negotiate a wider issue.
Osisie pointed out that these problems need to be solved for many years, and it is by no means a dinner.He believes that the United States and China can avoid falling into the trap into Xiu Xidide, just as the United States and the Soviet Union did not broke out of military conflicts at that time.However, in the middle and long term, it is difficult for US-China relations to avoid being caught in the Cold War of the Economic version. Economic relations will become alienated, causing the consequences of both defeats.
In the short term, in terms of trade issues alone, it is not difficult for the United States and China to think of some vague compromise, so that Trump can declare victory and dispel the idea of raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 25%next year.If this result occurs, it is expected to promote the atmosphere of risk to the market next Monday; but if the special advancement has not produced positive progress, the avoidance of the risk atmosphere will inevitably come back.
At this moment, China is also facing medium -income traps, and its economic vitality has been exposed.A country like China, an economy, has grown in explosive growth. Before entering the developed country, there are many previous examples that have encountered a major economic crisis.Over the past ten years, the observer's mouth predicted that the Chinese economic crisis is approaching, or at least it will have landed.
However, the era of China's economy continued to Mercedes -Benz and the high growth rate has ended.Beijing may be able to re -applied skills, and to boost the growth rate with loose credit, but the effect of stimulating growth is not as good as before.
When China became a long -term cooling in the previous period, the global stock market pressure was settled from the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016, forcing the Chinese authorities to sacrifice loose credit to stimulate growth again, but the results were very small.On the other hand, before the crisis occurs, China does not need to use heavy dose of loose credit measures, and it can also maintain a high growth rate.
In addition, China's ability to use foreign exchange foundation to defend the RMB has weakened. It is now more difficult for small enterprises to raise funds through the credit market. It is hoped that foreign investment stocks to turn their claims into equity are becoming more and more slim.In June this year, China A -share was finally included in the MSCI emerging market index, but the land stocks performed very badly this year. Even the stock prices of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have fallen in an all -round way since the beginning of the year, reflecting that mainland consumers have cash tightly.
In short, China is trying to reduce credit bubbles and avoid economic growth, and it must smoothly transition to further expansion of the Communist Party leadership.This is a difficult task. Trump provoked the trade war and sprinkled salt on China's economic wounds.Osus said that if the United States forced trade confrontation too much, the consequences of the importance of global growth are unimaginable based on China's importance of global growth.These problems are not solved by special meals.
