Author: Chen Guanan

With the conclusion of the Jiuhe local election, the issue of the 2020 presidential election quickly floated on the stage.In fact, it is only about 13 months left from the 2020 election day. Considering that the primary election of the two parties will be carried out in the first half of 2019. It can be said that the people of Taiwan will soon face another political change.

Judging from the results of this election, the importance of unified independence issues in the 2016 election in 2020 will be greatly reduced.Several candidates this time, such as Korean Yu and Hou Youyi; Pan Green, like Zheng Wencan and Huang Weizhe, belongs to the ideology of ideology in their respective camps, or puts the main axis of the election campaign in people's livelihood, economy and other non -unified independence issues.Candidates.Because of this, the DPP, which focuses on Taiwan and the anti -annexal consolidation card, tasted the taste of the avalanche -type defeat in this election. The county mayor fell sharply from 13 seats to 6 seats.

What's more, in the past, Lannan Green north of the north was the boundary of the political territory, and it was also unscrupulous to the people's dislike of uniforms, and under the context of people's livelihood and economic cards, it suddenly loosened.Otherwise, it is traditionally regarded as a pan -blue Keelung, Hsinchu City and Taoyuan City. It is still impossible for the DPP to be held by the DPP in the case of DPP.Cold.

After years of unifications, many grass -roots people can't help doubt and reflect on. Has the issue of unified independence stamped many more related economic and people's livelihood issues?And those who have always been obsessed with independent supporters are mostly a political elite, intellectuals, or awakening young people who can have Monley.From this point of view, it is no wonder that the ideological ebb of ideology is now, and in the operation of the democratic system, the politicians who focus on the people's livelihood issues are selected.

If in the next 13 months, such social trends and people's orientation will continue, then the presidential election in 2020 will no longer be a political development duel in 2016, but more likely to be a route debate of economic and social development.If the Democratic Progressive Party continues to focus on the ideological card, in the case of the duel between the two parties, Cai Yingwen's re -election is in crisis, and it is likely to become the first president to be re -elected.

However, it is interesting that the National Security Bureau recently stated in the Legislative Yuan that it is estimated that there will be three groups of candidates in 2020, and related security budgets have been arranged.

Reasonable estimation is that in addition to the national and the people, the third group is likely to be Ke Wenzhe, who has always been considered a great ambition, or the third forces that are jealous.That is to say, in 2020, it may be possible to reproduce the presidential election in 2000 or the three -party battle of the Taipei mayor election this year.

In the case of blue and green duels and green defeat, the emergence of the third forces brought uncertainty to the 2020 election.Relatively speaking, this is quite beneficial to Tsai Ing -wen, who was directly eliminated by the Association.

If the political territory of the 2020 presidential election is estimated to be estimated by the Taipei City election, the Blue Blue Basic Set should be slightly repaired, and the pan -green will be adjusted, forming a three -pointer with the middle voters.At present, through the tied to Lai Qingde and Chen Ju, despite the sluggish momentum, Cai Yingwen has stabilized and challenged the qualifications of the 2020 election.It is estimated that in the country, it is expected to win more than 17%of Yao Wenzhi in Taipei City. In this case, it is actually possible to copy Chen Shui -bian in 2000 in the blue -green and white war and win.

However, from the perspective of Tsai Ing -wen's current downturn, in order to consolidate the Basic Pan Green Basic Set, it is bound to win the unique card, maintain the cross -strait policy that has been criticized in the past, and even respond to mainland China.So the presidential election in 2020 is likely to have a strange phenomenon of green solo ideology and blue and white power to fight for the people's livelihood.But because it is a three -party competition, which party can finally win, it remains to be observed.

(Author is an assistant researcher at the National Policy Research Foundation)