Liu Juti: Before Trump's supporters explode champagne celebrating the great performance of the United States again, do we have to ask: Is this directly related to Trump's policy?

This article is the nine of the American series under the fire of the author of the author of the author of the author

Not long ago, the 2018 Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum was released, and the United States won the championship. This is the first time that the United States has won the first one since 2008.Before Trump ’s media exploding champagne celebrating the great performance of the United States again, what we want to ask is: Why does the United States take it back first?Is this directly related to Trump's policy?

China ranked 28th, one by one last year, ranked 30th in 2008, and wandered between 26 and 30 in the past 10 years.Under the fire of trade, what is the inspiration of this report on Sino -US competitiveness, innovation technology and openness?

The Global Competitiveness Report is an annual report released by the World Economic Forum since 2004. According to the global competitiveness index, about 140 economic entities are ranked.This report combines two dimensions of macroeconomic and micro -commerce to evaluate the ability of various economies to provide highly developing capabilities and how to effectively use existing resources.Therefore, the global competitiveness index measures a series of systems, policies, and sustainable factors that maintain the current and medium -term economic prosperity levels.

The United States has climbed one of the rankings of 140 countries last year. The overall competitiveness scores 85.6, and the distance is 14 points worse. This means that even the leaders of the 139 economies have room for improvement. Other rankingsThe top ten are Singapore (83.5), Germany (82.8), Switzerland (82.6), Japan (82.5), the Netherlands (82.4), the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (82.3), the United Kingdom (82.0), Sweden (81.7) and Denmark (80.6).

From a regional perspective, the Asia -Pacific region obtains the highest median (72.6) in all regions, leading ahead of Europe and North America (70.8).In addition to the top ten East Asian economies, the top 30 are Taiwan (79.3, 13th), Australia (78.9, 14), South Korea (78.8, 15th)Zealand (77.5, 18th), Malaysia (74.4, 25) and China (72.6, 28th).

A report on the 671 page showed that there is a strong correlation between competitiveness and income level. In fact, high -income economies constitute the top 20. Only three non -high -income economies in the top 40: Malaysia, China, China, ChinaHe Thailand (38th).Therefore, the report pointed out that in order to maintain future growth and income, all economies must invest today at a broader competitiveness measurement standard.

What are the global competitiveness index measuring?Compared with the past standards, the new model introduced this year is trying to capture a new reality: as the fourth industrial revolution steps the pace, human capital, innovation, anti -pressure and agility and other factors will be dwarn.A series of new concepts, such as corporate culture, corporate embrace of disruptive thoughts, collaboration between multiple stakeholders, critical thinking, virtuous politics, social trust, etc. to supplement more traditional indicators such as communication information and physical infrastructure, The length of macroeconomic stability, property rights, and school education.

The index adopts 98 indicators, based on international organizations and investigations of the implementation opinions of the World Economic Forum, and then summarizes them into 12 types of core qualities, reflecting the degree and complexity of the driving factors of productivity and competitive ecosystems, including the system, Infrastructure and communication information, macroeconomic stability, health, health, skills, product markets, labor markets, financial systems, market size, business vitality, and innovation capabilities.

Why is global competitiveness important?The report pointed out that because it helps to improve living standards and produce more extensive resources required for social goals.The author of the report wrote: There are inevitable social, economic and environmental tensions between various aspects of economic progress.However, there is no inherent weighing relationship between them.We believe that the agenda of competitiveness is not only compatible, but also an indispensable part of the pursuit of other development goals.

In today's turbulent environment, because there are various vulnerability, technical changes, geopolitical tensions and potential challenges, the foundation of increasing competitiveness will improve the ability to resist impact, and establish economic restoration through competitiveness.Li is more important than ever.The results of the report show that countries with excellent performance in the competitiveness index are also stronger against various impacts.Similarly, more competitive countries are more capable of dealing with the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution.

Who can invite the ranking of the United States?

Can the United States stand at the top of the international economic index that represents the top of the world's achievements, thanks to the policy of any leader or government?

Some reports believe that the United States' lead is due to the official adoption of new methods this year's global competitiveness index to measure competitiveness. In order to more reflect the nature of a country's future competitiveness, 66 % of the indicators used are new, covering the corporate fission of fissionThe openness of sexual creativity, the level of digital skills in the population, and how to flatten the corporate level structure.

As one of the greatest innovative powers in the world, the United States is in a very favorable position in this new competitive benchmark.It ranks first in the world's three in the world's top three core qualities: commercial operation vitality, labor market, and financial system.It ranks second in the other two indicators: innovation (second only to Germany) and market size (second only to China).

After 2008, the uncertain macroeconomic environment caused by the financial crisis has become one of the factors that hinder the United States dominant in the past ten years.Of course, the new indicators highlight the competitive advantage of the United States, but even according to the past methods, the United States has embarked on the road of rising for several years; by last year, it has returned to the second place in the ranking.

This supports an argument: Many conditions that help improve competitiveness cannot be simply obtained or established overnight.Although 2018 is the first formal evaluation mode for the report, the researchers have re -adjusted the data in 2017 based on the 2018 methods to understand the changes in the performance of various countries in the year.The United States is also the leader of this, which proves that the United States has long -term strength behind the peak of the United States. This year's performance is not a one -time exception, nor is it promoted by changes in the evaluation model.

In addition, it is worth considering the source of data. About 70 % of the scoring indexes of each economy in the 140 economies (slightly lower than the actual quantity of the indicator) are provided by international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank or the International Telecom Alliance,Data usually exist between the measurement and release of these data for 2-3 years.Does this mean that the rise of the United States can only be attributed to the foresight of the previous government's foresight?The author of the report is very sure about the answer to this question: Some of the current advantages of the United States have even exceeded the period of the previous regime, and they cannot ignore the current government's efforts, because although 70 % of the report weight comes from hard data, the remaining 30 % representative representativesThe point of view of American business leaders, their positive attitude towards the United States is mostly based on the momentary feelings.

However, the report also pointed out that the US economy is also negatively affected by weak social structure, deterioration of security, and insufficient adoption of communication information technology.There are signs that the social structure of the United States has weakened. Social capital scores are 63.3, which is lower than 65.5 last year, and because the murder rate is other issuesFive times the average economy, the security situation deteriorates.It also lags behind most developed economies in terms of health. The expected life expectancy of the United States is three years lower than the average level of developed economies.

In addition, this year's data shows that the financial system is still the weaknesses of some economies.This year's new index introduced a new financial stability measurement standard.On the basis of drawing on the global financial crisis, this comprehensive indicator uses measures such as bank stability, non -performing loans, credit supply and trends, and bank regulatory capital ratio to reflect the stability of the banking industry.From this perspective, Finland, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Norway have the most stable financial markets (all scores are higher than 95).

The G20 economy has specific vulnerability in the financial system, including India, China, Russia, and Italy. The scores are 84 or lower: India's financial system stability (83.2 points) is mainly compared with bank stability and regulatory capital ratio.The influence of low, and China's stability (80.1 points, 113) is threatened by the rapid growth of private credit.

Scientific and technological innovation and the fourth industrial revolution

From a macro perspective, this year's index standard refurbishment is mainly tailored for the fourth industrial revolution.With the opportunity of the economic leap, the transmission of cross -border innovative ideas and the creation of new forms of value, the fourth industrial revolution can provide a fair competitive environment for all economies, but the report of the World Economic Forum emphasizes that technology itself is not a oneThere is no unfavorable silver bullet.Countries must invest in talents and systems to realize their technical vision.

The leap -up development based on innovation is still elusive, and the use of technology to promote economic leapfrog has basically not realized.There are currently at least 4.5 billion smartphones in the world, but more than half of humans have never been online.Although information and communication technology has a high commitment to improve productivity, it can obviously become a catalyst for other productivity -driven factors, such as innovation and commercial operation vitality, but only rely on technology to solve all problems such as education, health, governance, and transportation infrastructure.Guide.For many economies with the lowest competitiveness, the root cause of slow growth is still old development issues such as systems, infrastructure and skills.

Innovation has not only become the top priority of all developed economies, but also the priority of more and more emerging countries.Embracing the fourth industrial revolution has become a decisive factor in competitiveness, and the countries that understand innovative transformation and those countries that do not understand innovation transformation have presented a new global gap.The conclusion of the 2018 Global Competitiveness Report considers that the global economy has not yet prepared the fourth -degree industrial revolution driven by the rise of digital technology. 103 of the 140 economies of the index score less than 50 %.There are only a few real innovative powers in the world, including Germany, the United States and Switzerland.

The exception is that among middle -income countries, China and India are catching up with or even surpassing the average of high -income economies in terms of scientific and technological innovation.China's investment in research and development has been higher than ordinary high -income economies. Although India is unwilling to fall behind, the bureaucracy has reduced the efficiency of entrepreneurship and bankruptcy reorganization.China -India's rushing process is reflected in the technical dense fields of Chinese and Indian companies.In 2017, 33 % of unicorns with a global valuation of more than 1 billion US dollars came from China, higher than 12 % in 2014.China ranks 24 in this year's innovation capabilities index, and its business operation vitality ranks 43.

The 2018 Global Competitiveness Report has repeatedly emphasized that it is even more important to understand that the competitiveness of a country must be based on a broad basis for the country leaders who recognize the importance of innovation. The strong performance in one field cannot make up for the weak performance in another field.This is especially in terms of innovation: Although the strong attention to technology can indeed provide leapfrog development opportunities for low -income countries, the government must not ignore old development issues such as governance, infrastructure and skills.

In other words, the advancement of technology is not a Wanling Dan who enhances competitiveness, and the weak system will hinder competitiveness.The definition of the system includes security, property rights, social capital, balance, transparency and morality, public sector performance and corporate governance.

Although it is related to the competitiveness and development of many countries, overall, the system scores the second in the 12 core qualities of all indexes, second only to innovation capabilities, and the median is 53.Among the 140 economies studied, 117 scores were dragged down due to the low score performance of the system.

Researchers at the World Economic Forum believe that in order to promote productivity, the government must pay attention to the traditional knowledge and emerging knowledge of strengthening the institutional environment.For example, social capital is a extensive concept of capturing the quality of personal and social relations, the power of social norms, and the level of participating in the society, creating more cohesion in society, creating more trust between people, so as toReduce transaction costs.Australia (66.2 points) and New Zealand (66.0 points) have the highest level of social capital, China (41.0 points, 125th) and Russia (43.9 points, 117th) social capital levels are low, Burundi (35.2) and Yemen (37.8)Location last.

The degree of openness and globalization

If the competitiveness of an economic entity is directly proportional to its openness, does this certify that a country that embraces globalization must have a positive impact on its economy?According to the research of the World Economic Forum, although opening up is conducive to growth, the government must support those who have lost power in globalization.On the occasion of the upgrading of trade tensions and strong opposition to globalization, the report reveals the importance of open competitiveness: more open economies are more innovative and the market is more competitive.However, although it is open between countries, it is sometimes a loser in some countries.

Even so, trying to solve the problem of inequality by trying to reverse the trend of globalization, it will only reaction to the sustainable economic growth.Therefore, policies should focus on improving people who are negatively affected by globalization, rather than biased protectionism.Improving competitiveness and taking into account domestic interests does not have to be a zero -sum game. It can help reduce inequality through re -distribution policies, social security safety networks, human capital investment, and more progressive taxes, and will not affect the competitiveness of a country.

In addition, the report also pointed out that the definition of openness must pay attention to the concepts other than trade, such as the freedom of population flow and ideological exchanges.According to this definition, Singapore, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, and the United States are one of the most open countries in the world, and Iran and Ethiopia are one of the least open countries.Brazil and India are relatively closed.

Realizing equality, sustainability and common growth will not hinder economic development, but it is necessary to proactively and have visionary government leaders.It is generally believed that a more comprehensive economic progress model is needed. This model can improve the living standards of everyone, respect the boundaries of the earth, and will not adversely affect future generations.The report believes that there is no inherent trade -off between equality and growth: Just as the strong performance of several Nordic countries in terms of competitiveness and tolerance, it shows that it may support growth and support at the same time.

Although the relationship between the competitiveness index and the relationship between environmental measures is not certain, and the most competitive economy has the largest ecological footprint, they are the highest efficiency (the unit GDP has the lowest footprint).Therefore, leaders have the responsibility to determine long -term priority matters and active efforts to create a virtuous circle between equality, sustainability and growth.

When the situation of trade tensions is upgraded and the strong resistance to globalization, openness is more important to competitiveness.So is the author of the report continued to be optimistic about the advantages of the United States?The 2018 Global Competitiveness Report questioned the protectionism advocated by the Trump administration, because countries with low tariffs, the convenience of employment of foreign workers, and cooperation with patent applications often were in innovation andThe market efficiency has achieved better results.

Competitiveness takes a long time to take root, but it can be eliminated relatively quickly.The Global Competitiveness Report believes that if some warning signals about the United States have deteriorated, such as the improvement of trade tariffs,The confidence of judicial independence has decreased, income unequal income, or the environment of hiring technical personnel is more difficult, so the global competitiveness index in 2019 may have a great flip.In the past and current American leaders, they could be proud of their status in the world today, but the real challenge was how to maintain this position tomorrow.

(Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view. Responsible for the mailbox [email protected])