Zheng Weibin: The Kuomintang is better than cross -strait relations may be more turbul

Zheng Weibin

The results of the nine -in -one elections in Taiwan were basically announced on the evening of November 24.The Kuomintang won the position of 15 counties and cities in 22 counties and cities. It successfully achieved power flip in many counties and cities, and took over the local regime, which was originally in charge of the DPP.The local governing territory of the Democratic Progressive Party has shrunk significantly.

From the perspective of the outside world, cross -strait relations may change again, and it is conducive to changes in the direction of Beijing.Beijing can take advantage of the Kuomintang's local county mayor to enhance the impact on Taiwan's politics and further isolate the Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai Ing -wen.This means that after this Taiwan election, Beijing may change the strategy of Taiwan for more than two years.

However, when changing the strategy of Taiwan, there may be two major factors, and Beijing must pay attention.One is the local leader of the Kuomintang in this election, and the other is the US factor.

First of all, the failure of the DPP is by no means the victory of the Kuomintang.It can be seen from the votes of the Taipei Mayor Ding Shouzhong. It can be seen that the Kuomintang was not able to win in this election because of the good job.In the election campaign in Taipei City, due to the breakup of the DPP and Ke Wenzhe, some votes of Ke Wenzhe were transferred to the DPP candidate Yao Wenzhi, so such a election situation appeared.

From the perspective of candidates elsewhere, such as Wang Huimei, a candidate for Changhua County County Mayor, relying on local factions and power hill united and assisted, successfully won the largest county in Taiwan with a population of 1.3 million.Kaohsiung Mayor candidate South Korea Yu, also atypical Kuomintang.In other words, the victory in this election is either the local faction of the Kuomintang or an atypical Kuomintang. The orthodox blue camp color candidates, such as Ding Shouzhong, are not colorful.

If 2014 is the beginning of the Orthodox Kuomintang suffered a big defeat, the Kuomintang, which was reborn four years later, was definitely not the original Kuomintang. It can even be said that the localization of the Kuomintang from the Lee Teng -hui era finally becameReality.The Kuomintang has completed a complete transformation of Taiwan.

Therefore, although the Kuomintang won in this election, it also means that among the traditional Kuomintang, the uniform forces are further micro, and the local and young generations will rise to replace the original Kuomintang.As they showed this time in the election, these people pay more attention to local development, rather than the confrontation between the color of the party and the unified independence issues.

Secondly, in this election, the Tsai Ing -wen government was inadequate. The economic failure to improve is also a major factor that the DPP has been abandoned by Taiwanese voters.Although the Kuomintang candidates such as South Korea ’s Yu have made the slogan of economy, this is by no means that the mainland is the only option for these local candidates to open the economic difficulties.In fact, this road has been proven invalid in 2014.

In the face of the stagnation of economic stagnation during Ma Ying -jeou, Ma Ying -jeou and his government regarded the mainland as the only solution to get rid of the predicament, but encountered a huge solar flower movement.Are these mayor of the Kuomintang county who have obtained the rebirth of the reborn today, do you still have to repeat the mistakes of Ma Ying -jeou?The mainland may help the economic development of these counties and cities, but it is by no means the only way to solve the problem. Otherwise, in the next election, once there is any improper, it may encounter Ma Ying -jeou's dilemma.In addition to using external markets and strengths, the efforts of their own technology invention innovation and economic policies are also an important means to solve economic problems.

The second major factors that have to be considered are the relationship between the United States and Taiwan in the context of strategic competition between China and the United States.If the victory of the Kuomintang this time, Washington is regarded as the result of the influence of the mainland to enhance its influence in Taiwan, for Beijing, it is not good news.

In previous articles, I think that there will be three levels of competition in China and the United States. The most important of which are political contests, and the final battlefield of this contest will be Taiwan.In other words, the United States will not easily make concessions on Beijing on issues of Taiwan.The so -called maintenance status in the United States is to maintain such a pattern of one middle and one.Although the United States is unknown, this is actually the case.Especially during the Trump period, the relationship between the United States and Taiwan, which is continuously upgraded, continued to move.

Therefore, if the victory of the Kuomintang this time means that Beijing's influence on Taiwan has increased, weakening the DPP's rule, and in a unified direction, the United States will possibly increase support for the DPP, strengthen the DPP and strengthen Taiwan with Taiwan.Relationship.This will also mean that in the future of Cai Yingwen's ruling in more than a year, cross -strait relations will probably have more problems and turbulence, and its development will become even more unpredictable.

The author is Beijing Freelance