10 investment banks and brokers including Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group generally predict that the downturn in the Chinese housing building market will continue next year.
According to Bloomberg News on Wednesday (December 27), the above situation dragged down China's economic growth, showing that the support measures of the Chinese government are not enough to reverse the decline in the real estate construction industry.
It is reported that if the above investment banks and securities firms are expected, the growth of China's real estate construction will shrink for three consecutive years, setting the longest consecutive record.
The main indicators of real estate investment in the first 11 months of China decreased by 8%year -on -year.The indicator fell by 8.4 % last year.This prospect indicates that although the Chinese government has launched a series of measures to boost the demand for house purchase, the downward trend of the real estate market is far from over.
The continuous downturn in the Chinese real estate market means that the role of this industry as a demand for goods and service has weakened.Bloomberg's economic research estimates that real estate -related demand currently accounts for about 20%of China's GDP, which is lower than the level of 24%in 2018.
The forecast given by Goldman Sachs Economic Division is the most pessimistic among the most pessimistic. It is expected that China's real estate fixed asset investment will have double -digit atrophy next year.Reduce a percentage point.
The expectations of other agencies are relatively pessimistic.Morgan Stanley is expected to decrease by 7%, and UBS is expected to fall by 5%.Chinese economists also have a view of sorrow that China Recruitment International expects that China's real estate investment will decrease by 7%.
According to other economic divisions such as CITIC Securities, the main reason for the pessimistic view is that the newly launched real estate projects in 2023 declined significantly.This means that there is room for decline in the completion project.
Another reason is that the decline in real estate sales has led to the weakening of the motivation of developers' construction.Goldman Sachs and UBS are expected to decrease by 5%next year.
The downturn in China's real estate market will have a wider impact.Due to the huge scale of the industry, the decline in construction activities is one of the main reasons for the weak domestic demand, and the weak domestic demand is one of the main reasons for China to shrink this year.
