China's residents' consumer price index (CPI) in June weakened. In response, official media commented that the price stability was not a deflation.
Economic Daily published an article on Wednesday (July 19) that the signature "Jin Guanping" stated that since this year, domestic prices have continued to operate at a low level, which has caused discussions on whether the Chinese economy has fallen into a tightening.
The article states that the tightness of the currency generally has the characteristics of continuous price levels and continued decline in currency supply, and it is often accompanied by economic recession.At present, China's macro economy has resumed steadily, and the broad currency has maintained a rapid growth. At the end of June, the volume of currency supply, the stock of social financing, and the loans of RMBs increased by 11.3%, 9.0%, and 11.3%year -on -year.There are obvious differences in typical contraction.
The article wrote that since this year, the CPI increases from the year -on -year increase, and it may decline in July. This is a staged phenomenon caused by the stagnation and base effect of the demand.China's currency conditions are reasonable and moderate, and residents are expected to stabilize. As the effectiveness of the policy continues, the gap between supply and demand will further fit.In addition, the high base factors in the same period last year gradually eliminated, and the price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level.
The article said that since last year, China has introduced a package of stable economic policies and measures, but it takes some time for investment expansion to the final consumption.During the epidemic, residents' income was generally affected, and there was also a process of "replenishing" savings.Related data show that supporting financial instruments issued last year have gradually formed a physical workload, and it is expected that the revenue of the residential sector will be further enhanced in the future.
The article states that although prices have declined to a certain extent in the short term, it does not mean that China has entered a thumbnail stage.The strong manufacturing foundation and the stable monetary policy in recent years have laid the medium and long -term foundation for the realization of price stability.
The article finally wrote that next, we must use the existing monetary policy space to maintain the requirements of monetary conditions with the requirements of potential economic growth and basic stability of prices, and take into account economic growth and price stability.At the same time, we must also see problems such as lack of effective demand at present. We must focus on stabilizing market expectations, enhance the social economic vitality, improve residents' income and consumption capacity, and promote high -quality economic growth.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 10 showed that in June, the year -on -year growth rate of CPI decreased from 0.2 % in May to zero.After deducting large fluctuating food and energy prices, the core CPI in June rose 0.4 % year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May, showing that the demand for goods and services was sluggish.
Some analysts believe that the general decline in prices may further crack down on the fragile confidence in China, which causes the economy to fall into a vicious cycle of weak demand and the decline in price decline, and the risk of currency tightening increases.
