China ’s economic growth in the second quarter is lower than expected, the weak domestic demand is increasingly obvious, and the unemployment rate of the youth has broken a new high.Analysts call on the official to launch a stimulus policy as soon as possible, drive domestic demand and stabilize market expectations.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday (July 17) showed that China's GDP in the second quarter (GDP) increased by 6.3%year -on -year, an increase of more than 4.5%in the first quarter.This is mainly because the GDP growth rate of GDP in the second quarter of last year was affected by the crown disease epidemic control and fell to 0.4%, forming a lower comparative foundation.However, this increase is still lower than the 7.1%predicted by Bloomberg and 7.3%predicted by Reuters.
Compared with the previous quarter, the economy in the second quarter increased by only 0.8%month -on -month, and the increase was much lower than 2.2%of the first quarter.According to other economic indicators announced on the same day, the strong rebound momentum after the world's second largest economy withdrew from the "clear zero" is fading.
In the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment fell 7.9%year -on -year, dragging down the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment from 4%in the first five months to 3.8%in the first half of the year, and private investment decreased by 0.2%year -on -year.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and the Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Affairs, said at a press conference that the newly started construction area of real estate is still declining, the completion area is increasing, the construction area is declining, and the future real estate investment is still still.It will run at a low level.When the property market is adjusted gradually, real estate investment will gradually return to a reasonable level.
With the weakening of China's exports, the economic main engine in the first half of the year turned to consumption, and the final consumption expenditure contributed 77.2%to economic growth.In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2%year -on -year.However, after climbing in April to 18.4%, the total growth rate of Social Zero fell sharply from 12.7%in May to 3.1%in June, the lowest this year.
In June, the nationwide urban survey unemployment rate remained at 5.2%, but the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 rose to 21.3%, a new high for the third consecutive month.Fu Linghui predicts that as college graduates enter the labor market, the youth unemployment rate may continue to increase in July.As young people gradually find their jobs, the unemployment rate is generally declined after August.
Although Fu Linghui emphasized that China has "fully confident, conditional, and capable" to complete the annual growth target of about 5%, all A -share stock indexes fell on Monday on Monday, reflecting investor confidence.The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.87%throughout the day, the Shenzhen Certificate Index fell 0.63%, and the CSI 300 Index closed 0.82%as low as a record of three weeks.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the latest economic data highlights the lack of vitality in China's economy, especially for insufficient consumption momentum, and the property market continues to weaken, indicating that the economic prospects in the second half of the year are not optimistic."The annual economic growth rate is expected to be around 5%, and it will not be as high as 5%as expected before everyone."
China's decision -making layer has successively promoted the economy through interest rate cuts, extending interest rate reductions of new energy vehicles, and continuing some property market support policies. However, the scale of stimulus policies currently launched is not as good as market expectations.After the second quarter of economic data rang the alarm, investors turned to look forward to a more powerful package of measures at the Politburo meeting held at the end of this month.
Xie Dongming, director of the research director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, analyzed in an analysis in an interview that the central bank officials said last week that the policy of "existing marginal optimization" in the policy of the overheating phase of the property market last week.More powerful property market support policies.As for large -scale measures such as interest rate cuts and debt issuance, it may not be available after the Politburo meeting.
Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategic Master Zhou Yitong predicts that the official relaxation of the real estate policy is mainly focused on supporting the first buyers.In addition, further lowered interest rates also help reduce the financing costs of public and private sectors."Weakened economic data shows that officials need to increase policy support to stabilize expectations."
Economic data is released on the same day, Zheng Zujie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, held a symposium to listen to the operation conditions and problems of private enterprises such as Fangda Group, Feihe Dairy, etc., and promised to optimize the development of the private economy development environment and form formedPromoting the development of the development of the private economy.This is the third private enterprise forum held by the Development and Reform Commission this month.
