The US media broke the news that China is planning major measures to stimulate the economy, and many Chinese financial analysts call the government for more than a week.Lady down.
To say that the Chinese government is not in a hurry to the economy, and it is not right to press the soldiers.Since mid -June, the official has adopted a series of interest rate cuts and extended the purchase tax reduction policy of new energy vehicles to 2027, which is a measure of revitalizing the economy.However, compared to the large -scale stimulus of corporate and market people, these policies are only "hairy rain", or the scholars are metaphorized by "squeeze toothpaste", which is expected to lead to the disappointment and downturn in the society and the market atmosphere.Essence
What is large -scale rejuvenating economic support?Many people remember that after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government announced quickly and fiercely in November of that year that it will arrange 4 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, S $ 750 billion) in two years.Start domestic demand to promote stable economic growth.The Central Government undertakes 4 trillion yuan of 118 trillion yuan to improve the level of people's livelihood and social security, technological transformation, ecological environmental protection, and the construction of major infrastructure, including accelerating the original planned roads and railway infrastructure projects.
At that time, the effect of 4 trillion economic stimulus supporting shadows was shared. China's economic growth rate from 6.1%in the first quarter of 2009 rose to 7.9%in the second quarter, and 8.9%in the third quarterBy the fourth quarter, it had reached 10.7%of the double digits.China ’s leading global affairs to get rid of the financial crisis and achieve V -type recovery not only avoid panic and large -scale unemployment, but also greatly enhance national competitiveness.
However, there are a lot of disputes over and wrong with 4 trillion, and some of the serious negative effects have continued for many years.For example, the 4 trillion supporting facilities brought more than double the Chinese stock market Mavericks and the housing market with a nearly double increase.For example, the house prices of the off -the -Mustang are a very conspicuous negative effect. By April 30, 2010, Beijing took the lead in the nation's "purchase restriction order" in commercial housing.Two, third and fourth -tier cities ...
The structural problems and overcapacity left by that strong stimulus have allowed China to work hard for years in the future.
Therefore, from the previous government in China, from the Prime Minister to the central bank and the Ministry of Development and Reform Commission, they have repeatedly emphasized or reflected through action, and they are resolutely not stimulated by large water irrigation stimulation due to the downward pressure of the economy. This has gradually become another otherThe inertia of thinking requires more powerful reasons to reverse the necessity of strong stimulation in order to reverse.If you want to launch a large -scale stimulus policy again, political and political will may be needed.
On the other hand, China has not yet introduced large -scale economic revitalization supporting facilities. In addition to conceptual reasons, there are also realistic dilemma with insufficient resources.After the previous three years of epidemic prevention and control and isolation, the central and local governments have not as good as the past.According to data from the International Clenging Bank, in September 2022, the total debt of China was close to 300%of the GDP (GDP). Cash circulation of some local governments was often not enough to pay interest, which limited the government's ability to revitalize supporting facilities.
In the case of a high savings rate of Chinese nationals, the government actually has space to expand its scale to borrow, but another more fundamental problem is that the current enterprises and consumers are insufficient confidence, and the return of stimulating economic measures is not as good as before.The scale of the stimulus policy must be very large to produce a certain stimulating effect. Even if a large -scale stimulus is introduced, the effect will not be significant.
Many scholars believe that even so, the Chinese government still needs to introduce large -scale stimulus policies, and quickly move to grow steadily, reverse negative expectations, and do not lose the economic advantages of growth momentum and China in China and the United States.Other experts believe that large -scale stimulus measures cannot solve China's deep -rooted structural problems, and will only delay the unsustainable model.China must change its economic growth model and change its dependence on real estate, and it is inevitable to bear pain.
The above two considerations have made sense, each has their own gains and losses, and even huge gains and losses.How to choose from these dilemmas?Perhaps what China can do is to avoid taking the extreme, with the flexible and dynamic adjustment of elastic approach to get out of an optimal route.
As we all know, the characteristics and major advantages of the Chinese system are to draw plans and long -term futures, unify the national will and concentrated power, in order to determine the continuous power of the green mountains, and approach the goal step by step according to the blueprint -until another until anotherThe outbreak of the major crisis forced the original target to adjust or abandon, otherwise it would be less shaken and dynamically adjusted.This is like when the epidemic is decided to "clear zero", and persist all the way all the way to the end; as soon as it releases, it will turn rapidly.
Over the years, this crisis -driven model has made China climb over, but the price has also been paid in the process. How to make the cost is not too large, it reflects the government's ability and art to grasp the overall situation.
Even if China ’s economic recovery has weakened in the second quarter, but multinational companies are still staring at China’ s opportunities. China ’s key development of new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and robots that China now develop have a bright prospect of light, and they are all guaranteeing the future of the Chinese economy.However, the ability of high -tech industries to absorb employment is far less than the service industry, and it is not enough to solve China's huge population employment demand. Therefore, China should still take moderate stimulus measures to buffer the pressure on the economic slowdown and deepen the reform in order to make the private sector moreThe broad space and the protection of the law, with more targeted and flexible policies in various places, enhance the confidence of investment and consumers, and make this pain period as short as possible.
