Chinese balloons floating into the United States have worsen Sino -US relations that just shows signs of recovery.Bring a test for the Chinese new diplomatic team in the transformation.Can China avoid upgrading the situation by adjusting the foreign strategy? Is there any possibility of the tension between China and the United States?
Time retreats for one month, who can think of a white balloon floating with the wind, which will make the Sino -US relations ease the average?
On the New Year's Eve on January 21, Qin Gang, the new Foreign Minister of Foreign Affairs in China, gave New Year's blessings to the fans and the Chinese and American people through the video in a American professional basketball (NBA) game.At that time, Qin Gang took office for less than a month, and not long ago, the US Secretary of State Brills, who had passed the phone, would visit China two weeks later.It is reported that Brinken had planned to meet with Chinese officials while visiting China.
But the "balloon incident" that occurred 10 days later, disrupted the pace of recovering high -level exchanges between China and the United States, and became the first tricky issue facing China's new diplomatic team.
Director of the Department of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan Politburo, Lu Yezhong observed that since the balloon incident, Brinken has not been in contact with Qin Gang, but Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and the director of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee,Interaction, although Wang Yi should now be the national security consultant Su Liwen.
The analysis of Lianlian Morning Post was interviewed by Lu Industry: "Huafu may be testing the weight of the new foreign minister and explore the style of the new diplomatic team to determine how to deal with China next."
Some analysts also believe that Qin Gang, who has served as ambassador to the United States, has sufficient experience in dealing with Sino -US relations, but because of his shortcoming foreign minister, the new diplomatic team has just taken shape, Wang Yi still has to play the role of "bidding band".Essence
In the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October last year, Qin Gang entered the new Central Committee as the Ambassador to the United States, becoming the first ambassador to the Central Committee of the Central Committee after China's reform and opening up.Two months later, he took over as Wang Yi's foreign minister and became the youngest foreign minister in China in the past half a century.
Qin Gang, 57, first served as a Chinese secretary in the Beijing Diplomacy Service Bureau after graduating from college in 1988. In 1992, he entered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Western European Division.He has served as the director of the Western European Department, Deputy Director and Director of the Journalism Department, and Director of the Division of Libin. He has twice served as a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and sent three times to London.
Qin Gang's style was tough during his tenure as a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Some Chinese media used "Gang Gang" and "Direct" to describe his answer style.In 2017, Qin Gang served as assistant to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and continued to be the director of the Libin Department, and was promoted to the deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the following year.
In July 2021, Qin Gang became the Chinese ambassador to the United States.In Washington for more than 500 days, Qin Gang actively showed flexible figures and frequently interacted with people from all walks of life.He kicked off for the baseball game of the St. Louis Red Bark, and took the Tesla electric car with American technology tycoon Musk. He also uploaded a video of playing on the NBA game on the NBA game on the eve of his step -down.
In some hot topics, Qin Gang's relatively mild statement also impressed the media.For example, he once said that if Beijing knows in advance that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, it will do their best to stop it.When talking about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Qin Gang also deliberately diluted the risk of the Taiwan Strait to wipe the gun and get angry.
In January of this year, Qin Gang was elected as a representative of the National People's Congress in Tianjin to further confirm that he would concurrently served as a member of the State Commissioner after the "two sessions" (National People's Congress and the CPPCC Annual Meeting) in March, promoting the deputy national leaders.Qin Gang's "consecutive jump" highlights Beijing's high degree of trust and the emphasis on Sino -US relations.
After Qin Gang stepped down as ambassador to the United States, the most likely to take over this position was Xie Feng, the current deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.Xie Feng has many years of work experience in the United States, and also has the evaluation of "low -key and cautious" in the workshop.The US media believes that the "American Connect" Xie Fengruo took over as the ambassador to the United States, representing China to release a signal that he wanted to dilute the tough diplomatic style, improve the international image, and further repair Sino -US relations.
Xie Feng, 59 years old, worked for three times in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1993 to 2014. From 2000 to 2003, 2008 to 2010, he sent two times to the Embassy in the United States., Serve as counselors and envoy positions before and after.Xie Feng is currently ranked second among the four deputy foreign ministers of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is responsible for a large number of work against the United States. He also participated in the arrangement of the Shoujia metric in the US dollar last November last year.
On the other hand, Zhao Lijian, the former deputy director and spokesman of the "War Wolf" diplomat, was transferred to the deputy director of the Border and Marine Affairs Department at the beginning of the New Year.Although this belongs to the flat, compared with the promotion or faction of the six foreign Ministry spokespersons in the past 10 years, Zhao Lijian's adjustment is unusual.
Those who are familiar with Chinese diplomatic affairs revealed that Zhao Lijian's transfer was not the "big move" after Qin Gang took office, but from the higher -level instructions. The direct fuse was Zhao Lijian's wife Tang Tianru's high -profile move on the Internet.Chinese and foreign public opinion applauded Zhao Lijian's transfer to the ground. To a certain extent, he showed that the style of "War Wolf" he represented was not suitable and urgently needed to be adjusted.
Economic pressure Promote diplomatic steering
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations of Nanjing University, pointed out in an interview that Qin Gang's personnel adjustment and style conversion since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since taking office shows a new weather of Chinese diplomacy.Behind this is that China has begun to enter the same rhythm with the world after the impartment policy has shifted, and jointly meets the advent of the post -epidemic era."After the three -year epidemic, China's operations in all aspects will be different, and diplomacy is working hard to shape a new image and bring a new breath."
When China ended the "clear zero" policy that lasted for three years at the end of last year, the fiscal economy was overwhelmed, and the domestic economy faced unprecedented pressure.After last year's economic growth is far below 5.5 % of the official goals, China's economic recovery task this year is particularly difficult.
CountryThe high unemployment rate is stacking the sluggish property market, making "internal circulation" facing heavy resistance.In the context of slowing global external demand, if China continues to confront Europe and the United States in a tough attitude, it may further impact exports and investment confidence.Resume as soon as possible with the international community and cooperation, at the same time ease the tension with the United States, avoid strategic misjudgment and unnecessary conflict, so that the energy is focused on boosting the economy. It is believed that it is an important guidance to promote the turn of China's foreign policy.
Chinese leaders Chinese officials held face -to -face talks with US President Biden in Bali Island in November last November at the G20 summit last November.
The outside world was originally optimistic about Brinken visiting Huawei to further restore effective communication and restarting high -level mutual visits for an important step. Unexpectedly, the schedule was put on hold because of the sudden balloon storm, and Sino -US relations that had just appeared in warming also deteriorated again.
Faced with the popular American public opinion, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a gentle signal when responding to the balloon incident for the first time, "regret" by the balloon by mistake in the United States, and showed that he hoped that the two sides could calm down and carefully handle the incident.But with the continuous fermentation of the controversy around the balloon, Beijing's attitude is becoming tougher.After the U.S. military shot down the Chinese balloon, China rejected the United States 'proposal to ask the two countries' defense chief to call the call, and that the balloon was "a serious mistake in irresponsible."
The balloon event highlights the weak mutual trust of China and the United States
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the Rajerinnan International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, said that if China can learn that the balloon has deviated from the track to enter the United States, and communicate with the United States in advance, or can reverse the passive situation early.
"But this is not just the issue of the diplomatic team. The deeper reason is that the current status of Sino -US relations: the competitiveness of both parties is too strong, and its hostility is higher than mutual trust.
Robert Daly, former US diplomatic officials in the United States and director of the Institute of Kissinger Sino -US Relations, believes that China refuses to talk to the United States Defense Ministers because Beijing may blame the American demonization because of the root cause of the situation.China, try to curb China's rise.He is worried that Sino -US's hostility and prejudice to each other will cause balloon events to fall into unprepared cycle upgrades.
Dali reviewed the New York Magazine last week, reviewing the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the collision of the US military aircraft in 2001, saying that China and the United States can work together to resolve these two crises, based on the joint evolution of the two parties (CO-EVOLUTION belief.But such beliefs and trust no longer exist, and the spread of nationalism in China and the United States.
However, Lu Industry observed that although the balloon incident aroused heated discussions in the United States and China and the United States have successively sacrificed countermeasures, Washington and Beijing are relatively restrained in their statements."I believe that the two sides have such a consensus: while meeting the domestic political needs, it is not possible to let go of Sino -US relations and become unlimited spirals again."
APEC Sino -US relations opportunities and variables before the summit coexist
The Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in San Francisco in November this year is considered an opportunity for the first China -US dollar interaction.However, the balloon event continues to ferment, adding variables to the process of recovering high -level interoperability in China and the United States.
Scholars of interviewees pointed out that in the nine months from now to the APEC Summit, there are still many opportunities to contact Sino -US senior officials, but they will continue to face the interference of factors such as Taiwan's issues and South China Maritime Territory disputes.
China's highest diplomat Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Brillin attended the Munich Safety Conference in Germany on the weekend. Whether the two met with each other have attracted much attention.
On the other hand, after the US Treasury Secretary Yellen still expressed his willingness to visit China after visiting China, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce welcomed it.
Director of the Department of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan Politburo, Lu Yingzhong pointed out that whether Wang Yi and Brinkeit would meet in Munich and what form of dialogue, how long will Yellen visit Beijing, are all observation points for the progress of Sino -US relations.
In addition, if the news that Chinese officials will visit Russia in spring in Russia are true, it is worth observing whether China and the United States can maintain high -level interaction after China and the United States can maintain high -level interaction.
At the same time, the US House of Representatives Speaker McCarthy will continue to exacerbate the contradiction between Lu and the United States; how China dealt with the relationship with North Korea and Southeast Asian neighbors will also affect the progress of Sino -US relations."The APEC Summit is the highlight of Sino -US relations this year. I believe that both parties hope to promote the meeting again. But how to keep China and the United States maintain the" controlling competition relationship "is a subject that both sides will work together in the next nine months."
Bayeng on Thursday (February 16) in the White House stated that he would not apologize to shooting down the Chinese balloon, but hoped to talk to Chinese officials and resolve bilateral tensions.Biden then told the United States Broadcasting Corporation: "I think what Chinese officials do not want to see are fundamentally tearing the relationship with the United States and me."
Susan Shirk, a schoral scholar of the University of California, who had served as the Secretary of State of the United States, believes that the Bali Island Mishes will release positive signals at the end of last year.Whether Chinese officials are willing to adjust the foreign policy and "repressive" domestic policies in order to stabilize relations with the United States.
Xie Shuli said frankly when she was interviewed by the US Public Broadcasting Corporation that she was not sure whether Sino -US tensions could be alleviated, but she thought it was worth trying.She pointed out that the Chinese economy is facing tremendous pressure, "there is sufficient reasons to drive China's official to ease these policies, thereby restoring (the outside world's confidence in China) and improving the Chinese economy."
However, Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, believes that the differences between ideology and values of Chinese and Western society in terms of ideology and values are structural.Interests will not make concessions easily.
"These structural contradictions will restrict the relationship between China and Europe and the United States for a certain extent, not in China that can be reversed unilaterally."
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations of Nanjing University, pointed out that the scientific and technological war and trade war between China and the United States will not end in the short term. Both countries have prepared for long -term competition, but they have not ruled out the possibility of cooperation."Next depends on how to maintain a dynamic balance in competition and cooperation to avoid comprehensive opposition caused by sudden events."
