IMF has greatly lowered Chinas mid -term economic growth forecast

(New York / Beijing Comprehensive News) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly reduced its forecast for China's mid -term economic growth. The institutions and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences are expected to grow in 2023 China GDP (GDP)Essence

Comprehensive Wall Street Journal and the official website of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the International Monetary Fund Organization issued the latest evaluation of the Chinese economy on Friday (February 3). It is expected that China's annual growth rate will be 3.8%in five years.It is lower than 4.6%predicted in October last year.IMF lowers the prospects of China's mid -term growth in order to reflect the comprehensive impact of population atrophy and slower productivity growth.

Earlier this week, the IMF increased China's growth expectations by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2%in 2023. Because China ’s strict control of epidemic control is faster than expected, and personal consumption is expected to recover.Chinese official data shows that China's economic growth rate last year was 3%, one of the slowest growth rates in decades.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts the same consistency with the IMF

The Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published a 2022 Chinese economic review and the economic outlook for 2023, and the disturbance of China's economic growth in 2023 will weaken significantly.Since the occurrence of the epidemic, the growth rate of China's economy has changed in various quarters. It is expected that China's GDP may achieve a growth of about 5%in 2023. The growth rate of GDP in the four quarters may be 3.4%, 7.2%, 4.2%, and 5.2%respectively.

On the other hand, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences expects that due to the contraction of international demand and the rise of the base, China's export growth rate will turn to negative growth, and net exports may be dragged down on economic growth.In the first two years after the epidemic outbreak, China's foreign trade exports achieved an expected growth, and the two -year compound growth rate was 26.7%.However, due to the continuous tightening of economic monetary policy, the global economic growth rate will slow down significantly in 2023.

Report suggested that the current confidence of micro -subjects is urgently needed to enhance the endogenous motivation of economic development.In the context of the contraction of external demand, we should strengthen the adjustment of counter -cyclical adjustment and maintain the necessary fiscal expenditure intensity.It can be considered to increase the influence of the deficit in moderation, and the impact of hedging needs to be shrinking to prevent the restoration of endogenous restoration after the epidemic, which weakens due to external impact to effectively alleviate the impact of different international economic cycles.