Chinas October Caixin PMI is 49.2 manufacturing prosperity continues to shrink

The crown disease epidemic continues to affect the production and demand of the manufacturing industry. In October, the China Financial New Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) index (PMI) recorded 49.2, and the manufacturing prosperity continued to shrink, but it improved from September.

Caixin.com on Tuesday (November 2) announced the October Caixin China PMI index. Although the October index rose 1.1 percentage points compared with September, it was in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, indicatingThe prosperity of the manufacturing industry continues to decline.

This data is not consistent with the manufacturing PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.The PMI of the October manufacturing industry announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 31 recorded 49.2, falling at 0.9 percentage points, and fell to the Rongku Line again in January after a month, the lowest in the past three months.

From the perspective of the various points of PMI PMI in Caixin China, due to the influence of the outbreak, the supply and demand in October have contracted simultaneously.The demand for consumer goods and investment products is particularly insufficient.Foreign demand has also continued to decline. In October, the new export order index was in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, mainly due to the slowdown of foreign economies, and some companies also reported that foreign trade transportation had encountered difficulties.However, the shrinkage of manufacturing, new orders, and new export orders has narrowed from September.

The manufacturing supply and demand are both weak, and the employment continues to shrink.The October Employment Index was seventh consecutive month and the 14th time in the past 15 months was located in the contraction range, but the decline was narrowed compared to the previous three months.Due to the consideration of shrinking scale and reducing costs, companies have weak willingness to recruit new employees when they face employees. Some production line automation also makes enterprises reducing employment.

Affected by the rise in raw material prices in the international market, the purchase price index of manufacturing enterprises in October increased by more than three percentage points from September. The first time in three months has fallen into the expansion rangeEssenceDue to the poor market demand and the strong willingness to reduce prices in enterprises, although the factory price index has rebounded, it is lower than the Rongku Line for the sixth consecutive month.

Epidemic control measures affect logistics. In October, the supplier supply time index deteriorated slightly and continued the slowdown of supply since the beginning of the third quarter.Enterprises generally reflect that the epidemic causes transport delay is the main cause. In addition, the supply of suppliers' limited capacity and shortage of inventory also affect the supply time.

In order to meet the production needs, especially due to concerns about the rise in raw material prices and the shortage of supply, the increase in inventory power for manufacturing enterprises.In October, the purchase quantity index, raw material inventory index, and finished product inventory index all rose to the top of the Rongbai Line.

October manufacturing production and operation expectation index rose from the low position in September, but it is still lower than the long -term average.Entrepreneurs hope that the market will be significantly recovered in the future, and some entrepreneurs will also express their willingness to develop new products.

Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, said that the negative impact of epidemic control measures on the economy still exists. In October, manufacturing supply, internal and external demand, and employment have all shrunk.EssenceThe cost has risen slightly, and the charging end is still mainly reduced prices.Logistics transportation still has a lag, corporate procurement and inventory have risen slightly, and market optimism has risen, but the degree of optimism is limited in the long run.

He said that the recent economic data announced in the near future shows that the economic recovery is better, the main indicators are stabilized and slightly higher than the previous market expectations.Nevertheless, the current situation of the internal and external situations is still complicated and severe, and there are many adverse factors that affect economic development. Especially in many places, the epidemic is clearly restricted to both ends of the supply and demand. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the foundation of economic recovery is not firm.