During the RMB annual depreciation of more than 12%against the US dollar, and hit a new low since 2008.Guan Tao, the global chief economist of China Banking Securities, who has been working as a foreign exchange management department for a long time, believes that the current fluctuations of the renminbi are still tolertable, and if the exchange rate excessive fluctuations affect financial stability and price stability, the Central Bank of China has enough strength to interfere with the foreign exchange marketEssence
According to Bloomber, There are no panic in the market entities to snap up and hoard foreign exchange. In addition, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has no major impact on domestic prices, unlike the euro zone and Japan's input inflation pressure for the increase in the price of commodity prices. "
Faced with the most powerful US dollars in the past 20 years, Japan and other countries have adopted verbally and intervene in the foreign exchange market.China's response to the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market this year is relatively restrained. Although the central bank has adopted a series of indirect means such as intermediate price adjustment, the central bank has not yet obviously entered the market intervention.As far as foreign exchange reserves and policy tools are concerned, China does not lack the ability to intervene in the exchange market, and the reason for mild means may be consistent with Guan Tao's "exchange rate fluctuations in the tolerance range".
On Tuesday, the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2081 yuan a new low in January 2008, and it was a new low in the market at the shore of RMB in December 2007.
Guan Tao said that if necessary in the future, China will not rule out foreign reserve intervention."If the speculators are doing too much, the People's Bank of China must have the ability to interfere with the foreign exchange market more than the Bank of Japan," said Guan Tao. Because the global RMB foreign exchange transaction volume is less than the yen, and China has a large trade surplus, and Japan is a deficit.In terms of traditional and latest indicators, the Shanghai Foreign Exchange reserves are relatively abundant, and the scale is much higher than Japan.
Guan Tao said: "As for what circumstances, the central bank will take it directly, and the speculators think, because the central bank does not need to show all the cards to the speculators."Tao said that so far, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has neither affect financial stability nor price stability, so there is no restraint on monetary policy."Only when the RMB exchange rate is flexible, can we reduce the dependence on administrative intervention and maintain the independence of monetary policy."
Although the pressure of exchange rate depreciation and rising commodity prices will remain low.According to the data from the Bureau of Statistics, the consumer prices (CPI) of Chinese residents (CPI) in September increased by 2.8%year -on -year, and continued to maintain a low level of less than 3%, compared with the high inflation of more than 8%in Europe and the United States this year.At the same time, China's industrial product production price index (PPI) also settled steadily, falling to 0.9%in September.The mild inflation pressure creates conditions for China's relatively loose monetary policy when the overseas central bank's tightening is relatively independent.
The expansion of the spread of China and the United States this year and the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar have brought about large capital outflows. According to the data from China Bonds and Shangqing Institute, overseas institutions have reduced their holdings of Chinese bonds for 8 consecutive months for 8 consecutive months.The cumulative outflow amount exceeds 600 billion yuan; the A -share market has also been sold many times recently.
Guan Tao analyzed this that considering that China is a large open economy, this scale of cross -border capital flow has limited impact.In addition, the volume of China's stock market and bond market can better absorb this impact; as a trade surplus country, China's positive foreign exchange cash flow can also cope with these capital outflows.
With the appearance of the overseas central bank's tightening monetary policy, the global gradual liberalization of epidemic control and control also ease the tension of the supply chain.The growth rate of exports at the US dollar fell to 5.7%, and it was a new low in April.This trigger a guess of China ’s depreciation of the local currency to stimulate exports.In this regard, Guan Tao believes that this is not, and it should not be the government's policy goals.
The depreciation of the local currency usually has market entities with foreign exchange expenditures and liabilities, which facilitate market entities with foreign exchange income and assets.However, Guan Tao said that whether the profit is greater than the disadvantages or the disadvantages, it is not a policy goal that the government deliberately pursues, but the result of the fluctuation of exchange rate fluctuations."The government's policy goal is to maintain the flexibility of the exchange rate, reduce the dependence on administrative means, and ensure the autonomous space of monetary policy."
Guan Tao said: "The government should not set up a depreciation to achieve a result.The goal, because this may lead to moral risks and reverse choices. "According to his estimates, according to the financial report data of A -share listed companies, the RMB depreciated by 5%in the first half of this year, after the exchange income and losses were poor, the net exchange income of the A -share listed company's net exchange company30.7 billion yuan; last year, the yuan increased by 1%, and the total net exchange loss of the A -share listed company was 3.3 billion yuan.
