For a few weeks, Trump raised his rumors in Eva and New Hampshire, easily defeating the Republican nomination competitors and won the worship of a large number of people. They believed that he would become the next US president.
But when Trump nominated steadily to the Republican Party, it was a more harsh reality waiting for him.
In addition to the Republican primary selection of this bubble, Trump's campaign is also facing lasting vulnerability, so his nomination is a considerable risk for the Republican Party.On Tuesday, these weaknesses were exposed in New Hampshire. There, independent voters, voters who received university education, and Republicans who were unwilling to rule out his legal risks voted a large number of votes to his opponent Nikki Heili.
Trump still won easily.The number of voters who opposes his campaign did not exceed many Republicans who wanted him to regain power.However, in this political division, more than 310,000 voters voted for voting shows that as the presidential campaign left the world of "restoring the great glory of the United States" and entered a wider voters, Trump would face trouble.Less than four years ago, the group had rejected him.
"Some people came to me that they voted to Reagan in 1976, and they were conservative for a lifetime. Now they don't want to vote to Trump. This is a problem," Florida Governor Ron DudeSantis said in an interview with conservative media company Blaze TV on Tuesday.A few days ago, De Santis just ended his campaign and announced support for Trump."So he must find a way to solve this problem."
President Biden will face his own challenges in the re -race of the 2020 election.Different from four years ago, Biden, 81, is generally unpopular, and most Americans are not satisfied with his work performance.Biden -Biden -Bit Trump is four years older. He is facing serious doubts about his age and is trying to retain the voter alliance that supports his first victory.He turned to issues such as abortion rights and democracy. These issues can resonate among his basic voters, independent people, and even some gentle Republicans.
But like Trump, he also faces some doubts from the party.Immigration, inflation, and his support for Israel in the Gasha War have weakened his support in young voters, black and Latin voters and liberals.
"The general election really starts now, and the two least popular political leaders will start a matchup," said the Republican poll expert Neil Newhaus."This is a election that has two hazards."
However, Trump's problem dates back earlier.When he won the Republican Party in 2016, he disgusted the mild factions and independent people in the suburbs, and had almost no evidence that he found a way to attract them to return.
In New Hampshire, 44%of the Republican primary elected voters are independent people: Heili won the support of most of them with 58%with 58%.
polls show that many of these voters not only like a new face, but also vote specifically for expressing their opposition to Trump.Export polls show that four of the voters who support Heili said that their dislikes of Trump are more important voting factor than Heili support.More than 90%of people said that if Trump won nomination for the third time, they would feel dissatisfied.
In the preliminary election of the party in Aiwa, Trump also encountered the same difficulties in fighting for independence. The competition in the party's primary election usually attracts more conservative Republican ticket warehouses.The export polls there show that 55%of themselves are independent people who support Trump's opponents.
Trump will undoubtedly win many of these voters in November.However, many Heili supporters told the polls that they would support Biden, and the number was very amazing.According to state and national polls, such people are about 40%.Even though some of the voters are not supporters of Trump from the beginning, this number shows that a large number of Republicans or former Republicans may not return.
Newhaus warned not to over -interpret the election results of the New Hampshire, he pointed out that the state and independent people there are left left.Since 2004, New Hampshire has voted to Democrats in each presidential election.However, he warned that the Republican Party must ensure that this election was not a referendum against Trump.
"If the voters are good and bad about Trump's mood, they will oppose him," he said.
Voting to Heili's indoor designer, New Hampshire's independent person Luza Axel's view of this campaign is exactly the case.She supported Trump in 2016, but voted to Biden in 2020.
"I want to see Trump out of the game, and he also wants him to lose the hand of a woman," Axter said.But she was not sure how she would vote in the election: "Is this the dilemma we face?" She said.
The results of the new Hampshire exposed Trump's other weaknesses.He obtained the votes in the republicans with the highest college degree and the highest income, which highlights the problems he encountered in the voters who have constituted the Republican ticket warehouse.
The biggest defeat encountered by Trump in New Hampshire seems to come from Hanno, Lym and Lybulia, which is the rich and population around Datmouth College and Datmmouth.Town with high education level.
Even in the preliminary elective voters and Maga sports, the more closely contacted by Maga, Trump's support in high -income suburbs is the most weak.In Dallas County, the surrounding swing suburbs around Teme, Trump won with a weak advantage in 2020, but the support rate in the Republican primaries this year was only 39%.
Trump does not care about how to win back to the Republicans who refuse to vote to his Republicans."I'm not sure if we need too much support," he told reporters in New Hampshire on Tuesday."They all come back to support me."
Speech on Tuesday was an opportunity to support the audience for the general election, and Trump used the attention of this occasion to attack Heili, instead of calling on the whole party to unite like the preliminary election of Eva.He later humiliated Heili's dress on his Truth Social platform."I won't be too angry, I will win back," he said.
Trump Assistant and officials of the Super Political Action Commission believe that the Biden's campaign team is more powerful in any opponent of the preliminary election.
De Sandeis and Heili are basically unwilling or unable to fight back, but the Biden's campaign team will not give up.
For example, for Trump said that Biden was too old and should not be re -elected, the Bayeon campaign team quickly responded and produced a clip fragment that made Trump's mistakes and other confused moment.
In recent days, the Trump's Super Political Action Commission Maga Inc. issued an urgent appeal to the donor, claiming that according to internal predictions, by the end of the first quarter, the Bayeng campaign team will invest 100 million US dollars on TV propaganda.When the Republican National Congress was held in July, this number would be as high as $ 300 million.Maga Inc. has invested 36 million US dollars in the advertising offensive supported by Trump.
The CEO of the Super Political Action Commission Taylor Budovich said in an email sent to a donor this week that Biden's huge investment wasFacial issues of Democrats, such as abortion rights.
Budovich said in the fundraising appeal that as long as the Trump team can allow voters to pay attention to issues such as economy, national security and crime, Trump willCan defeat Biden.
However, focusing on the topic is not Trump's strength.In his speech on Tuesday, he reiterated that he had a lie about his defeat in 2020 and lied, saying that he won the New Hampshire in the election of the year.(The winner is Biden.) Once Trump comes out of the safe Maga world, such a speech will ring the alarm again.
His dedication to the results of the last election, the role he played in the riots of the Congress on January 6, and the 91 felony charges he faced -most of them are related to him trying to continue in power -Threats his campaign prospects, and these independent people and swing voters who have been vigilant will have been vigilant.
Even in the conservative Iova, about 10%of Trump supporters said that if he was convicted, they would not want to support him in the November election.
