Former US President Trump has not returned to the White House, the Chinese financial market is already desperate.
Trump announced the victory on Wednesday (November 6).In the past month, it has achieved the largest single -day decline in about five years.The A -share that opened in the morning has also risen to fall with Trump's leading advantage.
On the previous day, the stock market was also raised on the board in the entire board in the Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's confidence in the Chinese economy .
Li Qiang said at the opening ceremony of the China International Import Expo on Tuesday (5th) that after the official launching a package incremental policy in late September, China's major economic indicators recently rebounded, "full confidence" to achieve the economic development goal this year.
Li Qiang pointed out that there are all kinds of behaviors that do not talk about reputation today, causing the broken window effect of destroying the rules. "Only by all parties adhere to the promise of openness and take a pragmatic action can we work together to create a good open cooperation environment."
It is not difficult to see that Li Qiang's behavior of "do not talk about credibility" and "destroy the rules" includes the recent measures to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in the United States, the European Union and Canada.But Trump, who claims that "tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary," may not be regarded as praise.
Needless to doubt that Trump's election will bring a greater impact on the Chinese economy, the first thing that is the trade.
Trump set off a Sino -US trade war during his first presidential term. During this campaign, he threatened to impose more than 60 % of punitive tariffs on all Chinese products.
Last year, the goods exported to the United States to the United States were worth $ 500 billion (S $ 663.3 billion), accounting for 15%of the total exports.Slyt, chief economist at Oxford Economic Research Institute, estimates that Trump's tariff measures may reduce the U.S. -China bilateral trade by 70%; UBS Group predicts that China's economic growth will be halved as a result.
When domestic demand is weak, strong exports have become the growth engine of China's economy.The latest data released by the China Customs General Administration on Thursday (7th) shows that the export in October in October, Far exceed market expectations.
McGear Economist predicts in the report on Wednesday that if Trump implements tariff measures, it may reduce China's export next year by about 8%.The Chinese government may need 3 trillion yuan (S $ 555.7 billion) stimulus measures to offset the impact of tariffs. In addition, 3 trillion yuan will be needed to reverse domestic weak demand.
China is not unprepared.Chinese and foreign media previously reported that the China National People's Congress Standing Committee Meeting , which will be approved in the next few years10 trillion yuan of RMB bonds.If Trump wins, fiscal stimulation will be stronger.
Because of this, after the A shares experienced on Wednesday, the next day, the consumption sector was driven to a strong rebound, showing that investors expect the official to launch more consumption measures.
However, CCTV news reports show that the proposal reviewed at the meeting aims to alleviate the hidden debt crisis of local governments, rather than stimulating consumer demand.If the policy of boosting domestic demand is not announced, confidence in the market is another strike.
The weak domestic demand dragged down, China's import volume has slowed down this year, and four of the 10 months have fallen year -on -year.Among the October data released this week, the import volume has slipped by 2.3 % more than expected.
Continuous imports have caused the commitment of China's "buying global" to be questioned, and it has also affected foreign investment confidence in the Chinese market.According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's foreign investment in the first three quarters of this year decreased by 19.1%, showing that foreign confidence is still insufficient.
Li Qiang reiterated in his speech that China will further expand institutional openness and implement more unilateral open measures.The day before the opening of the Expo, he also promised to relax the market access during the discussion with representatives of the exhibitors. At the same time, China will continue to optimize the business environment and provide fair opportunities in terms of factor acquisition, qualification permits, and participation in government procurement.
The annual expo is an important window for China to show its determination to the outside world.According to official statistics, the number of countries and enterprises participating in exhibitors this year exceeded the previous session.
However, the Chinese EU Chamber of Commerce said last year that the Expo was the "Political Show" .It is still calling on China to support the open commitment with "practical action".As China has intensified trade friction with other countries, participating in the Expo does not mean that companies have amulets.
For example, the American Soy Export Association has participated in the Expo for seven consecutive years. The association representatives admitted that China accounted for more than 50 % of the total exports of soybeans in the United States.However, since the outbreak of the trade war, U.S. agricultural products represented by soybeans have become the primary targets of China's countermeasures.According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, the export of soybeans against China in the United States in 2024 decreased by 23 % year -on -year, and the export volume of corn was reduced by 67 %.
On the other hand, the US Department of Finance just set a new round of restrictions on US companies' investment in Chinese semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other fields.The new round of sanctions that take effect on January 2 next year may lead to "old friends" such as Qualcomm, AMD and other expo.The US semiconductor giant Intel has not continued to participate this year.
As the second largest economy in the world, at the same time facing the challenge of weak domestic economic recovery and intensified international trade friction, Trump returned to the White House and added more variables to the unclear prospects.This makes China more urgent to enhance the internal development momentum and strengthen foreign trade.
Trump, who believes in unilateralism, may leave more space for China to attract other countries, which makes the Expo, an open window to the outside world more significant.However, experience in the past few years shows that there is still a long way to go from the exhibition to entering the market. "Looking at flowers in the fog" outside the window cannot solve the problem.Only by effectively creating demand and reducing the threshold can we truly open the portal and eliminate trade barriers.
