美国哈佛大学杰出荣誉教授约瑟夫·奈预言，未来特朗普2.0时代，美国因拥有地理、The "good cards" such as population, technology, soft power, and international alliances will still dominate the competition in the United States and China.
Former US President Trump won the presidential election again, Joseph S. Nye (Jr.) on Thursday (November 7) at the "2024 Far -view Summit", "New President of the United StatesThe title of the U.S. era and global "in the future", made the above -mentioned representation when delivering video speeches.
Joseph Nai believes that after Trump's reunion of the White House, the world will face the Trump 2.0 era. It has a greater impact on Europe, and the burden on national defense will increase. Asia's security will not change much.
He took the Russian and Ukraine War, which lasted more than two years, as an example. As Trump took office, the US military support for Ukraine would weaken. "Trump claims that he will resolve the war in one day, which is obviously exaggerated a bit exaggerated.However, the war mediation is bound to negotiate, which also means that (President Ukraine) Zeelianzki's negotiation position will be weakened. "
Joseph Nai judged that Trump's Asian layout should be more continuous. The national security of the United States is based on a competitive confrontation with China and Russia.The competition between Trump is still a large focus in Trump's second term and is likely to expand to the economic level.
He said that Trump believes in marketing, and its international trade consultant includes well -known conservative Robert Lighthizer. "Will you see more tariff wars in the future, to what extent will we be expanded?Judging, I just hope that it will not develop to a comprehensive trade war ".
Joseph Nai said to Taiwan at the same time that Trump's second term to Taiwan will focus more on "trading" interaction and will not move significantly for Taiwan military sales, but " Taiwan will face more pressure , including tariffs and technical ban on mainland China."
Gao Xijun, the founder of the Tianxia Cultural Business Group, asked how the possibility of military conflicts broke out in the Taiwan Strait in the next four years?
Joseph Nai replied that Chinese officials have indeed interpreted some people as an invasive preparation for the PLA's 2027 military reserve targets; but more experts believe that China cannot conduct such actions in 2027, "conflictThe possibility is not high. "
Joseph Nai emphasized that the key is to maintain the status quo and strive for time, so that Taiwan can keep democracy, human rights and self -determination development, and continue to observe the changes in the mainland.He suggested that the United States continues to "double deterrence", preventing the mainland from using force, and preventing Taiwan from declare independence and avoid reasons for sending troops to the mainland.
Wu Yushan, an academician of the Taiwan Central Research Institute of Taiwan, further pointed out that the United States has been quite Trump. Not only is Trump led the votes in the electoral votes, but even Pu votes have achieved overwhelming victories with a 52%to 47%.Like the current advantage of Trump, which is almost the same as the current US President Biden, he has won the second highest voting in the history of the United States, second only to Biden at the time, showing that Trump's basic market did not collapse in the last election.
From the perspective of hegemony competition, reorganized businessism, and the perspective of right -wing population, Wu Yushan analyzes the root cause of Trumpism. Trumpism has across three elections since 2016. From many aspects, Vice President of the United StatesHarris can also be regarded as "Little Trump", and after the entire United States Trump, the biggest victim will be the United States' liberalism and its allies.
Looking forward to the future, Wu Yushan believes that China will continue to expand its forces to challenge the US hegemony; the US industry will also continue to be challenged by trade rivals; especially under the rapid development of AI high -tech industries, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United StatesIt is expected to continue to expand.
He said that under the continuous existence of the factors that promoted Trump's growth, Trumpism would continue to develop, forcing Republicans to accept its program, and even guide DemocratsCloser to its policy.
