The US Republican candidate Trump will enter the White House for the second time. Economists predict that during Trump's second term, if the Sino -US trade war expands, it may cause China's economic growth to growReduce two percentage points and promote Beijing to stimulate domestic demand.
According to Bloomberg, the Economist of the Macquarie Group in Australia predicted in a report on Wednesday (November 6) that Trump promised to increase the tariffs of Chinese goods to 60% during the campaign periodThis may lead to about 8%of China's exports next year.They said that considering the crackdown on corporate capital expenditure and business confidence, this will have a huge impact on GDP.
Economists say that in this case, the Chinese government has no choice but to increase stimuli, and 60%of tariffs may require 3 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, 555.8 billion yuanXinyuan) stimulus measures offset.They estimate that China will need 3 trillion yuan to reverse the weak domestic needs.
Economists say that this trade war may end China's current growth model with exporting and manufacturing as the main driving force."Under the next growth model, domestic demand, especially consumption, may become the main driving force again like the 2010s."
In the Sino -US trade war during the first government of TrumpThe United States will increase the actual tariff rate of Chinese export products from 3.1%in early 2018 to 19.3%in early 2020.Economists say that about 66%of Chinese goods have been levied additional tariffs.
Economist said that since then, Chinese exporters have been realizing the market diversification, transporting through third countries, and exporting to the United StatesEssenceThey believe that if the United States improves tariffs on other parts of the world, this strategy may become more difficult to implement.
The report said: "In fact, the tariff increase may be smaller and narrower than the range proposed by Trump. Therefore, Beijing may not be issued first, but it may make a later tariff on actual tariffs.When reaction, the scale of stimulus measures. "
Economist said that the Politburo meeting held in December may provide more clues about Chinese strategy and potential response measures.
