Lin Yuan: Has the United States made strategic errors?

Does the United States make strategic errors?Especially on the issue of the Russian and Ukraine War and the relations of great powers.

After the rise of China, the United States regards Russia (and predecessors in the Soviet Union) and China as an enemy at the same time, not a wise move.In the early 1970s, in the Nixon -Kissinger era, the United States had visionary leaders to make major strategic adjustments to "break the ice" in Sino -US relations.In this way, the strategic situation of the Soviet Union has deteriorated in the US -Soviet triangle pattern, and the strategic situation in the United States and China has improved.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian national strength was obviously not as good as the former.Even if it is regarded as a world country, it is also a world country that is strong and strong, and its shortcomings and limitations are quite obvious.In the past 30 years, Russia has rolled up and down in the "history of history", and it is also a period of rapid rise in China.At present, China's comprehensive national strength has surpassed Russia. Although there is still official limits, it has the potential to challenge the world hegemony in the United States.

In this case, the United States regards China instead of Russia as its main global strategic competitors, and its strategy to China also revolves around this center.It is also related to the Indo -Pacific layout, including consolidating allies with allies such as Japan, Australia and other countries; the Philippines such as the Philippines and other countries even adopt hostile stance; Cambodia, which is friendly to China, etc., trying to prevent military cooperation between both sides from deepening.Such strategies have achieved important results in some areas, and there are still room for improvement in other areas.

If a comprehensive evaluation of the formulation and implementation of all aspects of the United States' strategy, it will be found that there are incomparable coordination, and it will be more obvious from the US -China and Russia triangle.At this stage, in the Greater Triangle, the United States has adopted a policy with Russia and China at the same time.The consequences of this are actually prompting Russia to move closer to China and carry out increasingly close cooperation.This is not conducive to the main strategic competitors of the United States to defeat China.

Taking 2019 as an example, during the period of strengthening the sanctions against Russia in Crimean and other issues, during the decourse period of its trade war on China and the implementation of investment, technology, and supply chainComprehensive strategic collaboration partnership in the new era.After Russia launched a comprehensive war against Ukraine in 2022, it fell into unprecedented isolation, and its relationship with China was still in the "best period in history."

In the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Cao Cao would not blame the two sides in emptiness with Liu Bei and Sun Quan's hostile and attempt to destroy them at the same time.Liu Bei and Sun Quan formed an alliance before the Battle of Chibi, laying an important foundation for victory.After the Battle of the Chibi, although the two sides had contradictions and were difficult to eliminate, under the military pressure of Cao Cao, they could still maintain cooperative relationships for a period of time.

On the one hand, the United States puts forward considerable pressure on China and Russia (it is on issues such as China, the South China Sea, and sensitive technology; the Russia is on many issues related to the Russian and Ukraine War), on the other handIt also criticizes the cooperation between the two parties -the role of this approach is very limited.To prevent the two sides from deepening the more reasonable practice of cooperation, it should have been to pull one party to fight the other, not to play the two sides at the same time.

It stands to reason that if there is a strategic vision today in the United States, in the case of treating China as the main opponent, we should consider improving relations with Russia, just like the 1970s to improve the relationship with China to fight against the main opponent Soviet Union.Based on such strategic considerations, the United States' intersection between 2021 and 2022 should actually prevent the full war between Russia and Ukraine, but at the time it did not really work towards this aspect.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine Total War, Russia's relations with the West, including the United States, fell to freezing.Due to a popular battle in Europe, the United States and allies are bound to have a more hostile position to Russia.Since then, Russia has fully implemented the strategy east -this will completely change the strategic choice of "facing the West" since the Great of Peter.Putin's new strategy to implement this Russian National Games has both the active side and the same as the other side.

In this case, China's strategic environment has improved to a certain extent.Establishing a solid back -to -back relationship with Russia is important for it to compete with the United States and allies in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean.China can put a lot of resources into the construction of maritime forces, trying to make itself a marine power.

At present, China has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Russian and Ukraine War, and another main beneficiary is the United States.In the United States, China, and Russia, China's current strategic situation is relatively favorable.In addition, China is also one of the beneficiaries as far as the Middle East War (with the Harbin War, the Li War, etc.).The United States first put a lot of resources into Ukraine (this can also consume Russia), and then invested a lot of resources into Israel, which is almost no loss for China and Russia.

China may usher in a new period of strategic opportunities, which should be related to the errors of main strategic opponents.

The author is the Journey to the Journey