Former US President Trump will enter the White House again. Chinese scholars generally believe that Sino -US relations will become worse. Some people even predict that Sino -US relations may usher in stormy waves.

Trump on behalf of the Republican Party not only won the election, but also the Republican Party also owns the dominance of the two courts of the United States, the Supreme Court, and most local states, which is conducive to Trump pushing the population and conservative wave in China to the country.The new height implements more extreme protectionism and isolation policies worldwide.As the largest strategic opponent in the United States, China is likely to bear a new round of "Trump shock waves" next year.

Although Trump himself has rarely mentioned China in this election, the Trump team and the US strategic industry have already regarded China as the biggest threat to the United States.The Republican Party announced the 2024 party outline in July this year. It is clear that the United States should be strategically independent of China. Specific measures include the cancellation of China's most beneficial national treatment.

Increasing tariff may become Trump's first place to pressure China to pressure China.Card .Trump launched a trade war against China during his first term.During this year's election, Trump raised a tariff stick again, announcing that once he returned to the White House, he would impose 10%to 20%tariffs on all goods imported from the United States and levies 60%or even higher on Chinese goods.

Professor Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University, believes that Trump's tariffs on imported goods will "say".The addition of tariffs for Trump is not just a means of negotiation, but also the concept of belief. Trump believes that the addition of tariffs for tariffs is beneficial to the United States and is an effective economic policy.

Liu Weidong, a researcher at the American Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that in the early days of ruling, Trump might put pressure on China's "Taishan top", and then started the conditions.What kind of products cannot. "

The

The Sino -US trade war began in 2018 has led to changes in the trade structure of the two countries, weakening each other, and the "decoupling" momentum has accelerated.China's foreign trade in the United States decreased from 21%in 2017 to 11.6%in 2023.The ranking of the top three trading partners in China has also changed from the United States, the European Union, and Asia in Asia in 2017 to Asia's Diandan, the European Union, and the United States in 2022 and 2023.

An Gang, editor of the World Knowledge Magazine, believes that Trump may complete the six -stage tariff plan that he has not been implemented at the end of 2019, and then adds to the average tariff level of Chinese goods to 35%, and50%or 60%, new energy vehicles and other products increase higher tariffs.When the US tariffs on China are added to 60%, China and the United States will be difficult to carry out normal trade. If it is added to 100%, Sino -US economic and trade relations will fall into chaos, and the markets of the two countries will take a long time to re -adapt.

While upgrading the trade war in China, Trump's pressure on China will not weaken in the field of security.The "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States began in Trump's last term.In 2017, the US Department of Defense launched the "Indo -Pacific Strategic Framework", the core is to strengthen the existence of the United States in the Indo -Pacific region and curb China's growth in the region.

on Taiwan , Trump was elected in 2016 and was elected.After the president, he answered the congratulatory phone call from Taiwan Tsai Ing -wen, which caused strong dissatisfaction in mainland China.This time Trump's re -election may also interact with the current Taiwan Lai Qingde to show his tough attitude towards China.In the first term of office, Trump also insisted on selling against Taiwan. In 2020, he signed the "Taiwan Guarantee Law" that deepened US -Taiwan relations and helped Taiwan to strengthen self -defense capabilities. The US government also broke through the "No. 1 China" policy boundary and sent cabinet -level -level -level cabinet -levelOfficial Health Minister visited Taiwan.

In addition to Trump himself, it is expected that the Trump's new government is also indispensable for the extreme eagle like Trump's first state of State Pompeo, coupled with a large number of hostile Chinese members in the US Congress, these people are not onlyIt will promote the "detachable chain" with China in the field of economy and trade, and will also exacerbate confrontation with China on security issues.Because of this, most Chinese scholars are pessimistic about Sino -US relations in the next four years. They believe that Sino -US relations will fluctuate significantly in the next four years, and there may even be a major crisis. Sino -US officials and civilian levels will decline.

However, it is not a bad thing for Trump to take office for China.Trump is a single side, light and multilateral, opposing economic globalization, against free trade, and against the global agenda against climate change. It is difficult to reconcile with the contradictions with domestic and liberals in the United States. Domestic disputes will restrict Trump's administration capabilities.Unilateralism may also harm the relationship between the United States and its allies.

As Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the Russian and Ukraine War after entering the White House, it has aroused uneasiness from Ukraine and EU countries.The European Union was worried that Trump might make a significant concession for the end of the Russia -Ukraine War, so that the EU and the United States had worked hard to fight against Russia in the past two years.Trump is to stop Russia, especially to attract Russia against China. It is by no means to be able to do it in a short period of time. If it is not good, it may offend Western countries such as Europe and make the United States fall into isolation.

At the same time, Trump refused in this election to directly explain the possible military conflict of the Taiwan Strait, but clearly asked Taiwan to pay a "protection fee".The Trump's new government will definitely continue to "play Taiwan cards" to bargain with mainland China, but Trump is unlikely to completely break through the bottom line and make the Taiwan Strait a hot spot in military conflict.

More importantly, after a comprehensive game with Trump's first and Bayeng government in the past few years, China's overall national strength not only has not declined, but also continues to improve .In the face of such opponents, Trump may also use his businessman thinking while trying to target it to reach a transaction with China on some major issues.