(Beijing Comprehensive News) The US banking crisis is not limited to regional banks, and it has also spread to all banking and financial industries. The Federal Reserve will be more difficult to control inflation.
Ruida Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, the world's largest hedge fund, at the Global Financial Forum of Tsinghua Wudaokou in 2023 (21st), pointed out this.He said that many banks, and many entities, including insurance companies, pension funds, have purchased government bonds.This is a problem of the type of balance sheet, which is different from economic issues.
Zhu Min, the former vice president of Dalio and the International Monetary Fund, and the former vice president of the People's Bank of China, Zhu Min, on the financial forum held in Beijing Tsinghua University in English through video conferences.The influence of artificial intelligence GPT discusses topics.
Zhu Min believes that Silicon Valley Bank itself is not a systemic risk, but the nature of the crisis caused by Silicon Valley Bank is systemic risk.This is basically not matching the management of macro situations, long -term changes, loose monetary policy, and Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
Comprehensive reports of Tsinghua Wudaokou and Xinhua Finance, Dalio believes that short -term interest rates remain at a very low level, so entities can borrow and purchase government bonds."How can you purchase government bonds with negative interest rates and expect to make money? Do you know the answer? The answer is to borrow more negative interest rates to create positive spreads. This spread is provided by the central bank. A large number of transactions have reduced the value of these bonds.It means that many entities, and even the central bank are facing huge losses. "
The demand for bonds has decreased, and Dalio believes that the central bank will intervene and buy more bonds again, which means that the Fed will once again fall into a quantitative easing monetary policy."Since the beginning of quantification and looseness, each purchase volume is larger than before. When you start seeing the central bank's balance sheet expand again, this is a signal, indicating that the next stage of the loose dilemma is coming." When it comes to inflation, Dalio believes that high inflation is related to factors such as subsidies, low efficiency, and political factors.He pointed out that the inflation rate remains at a level of 4.5%to 5%, and the growth rate of subsidies is faster than inflation, so the inflation rate is unlikely to decrease.
Zhu Min said: "The most worrying of inflation is the inflation -wage curve problem. If the subsidy increases too high, we are worried that this will cause wages to increase too fast. I think this is really concerned."
Dalio said that globalization has led to low efficiency of global supply chain, and now it is in a larger conflict situation, which means that self -sufficient efficiency is more important than efficiency, and inflation has increased.
The United States is about to usher in the 2024 presidential election, and the domestic situation is also important.Dalio said: "To fight inflation, it is necessary to suppress the purchasing power and produce a weakened effect. This requires a period of observation, but when there are many internal conflicts, it will make it more difficult."
During the talk, Dalio pointed out that the five forces of driving changes are debt issues, internal politics, geopolitics, natural disasters, and technological development of changing our thinking."The development of artificial intelligence will definitely interfere with the existing social order. If it is used to fight each other and vilify each other, this will be a terrible impact. If it is used to improve productivity, this may be a very big positive positive and positiveImpact. "
