You Yinglong, chairman of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, posted on Facebook on Tuesday (January 2) that with the end of the six games and vice presidential candidates, the public opinion public opinion exemplary meeting and the debate will be over.A good time to win.You Yinglong quoted the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation announced on December 29, and the votes and possible votes of the three -party candidates were calculated.
According to calculations, the Democratic Progressive Party and vice presidential and vice presidential candidates Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin's vote rate of 38%positive and negative three, between 30.5%and 40%;For 37%positive and negative three, between 304%and 40%; Ke Wenzhe and Wu Xinying's voting rate of the party's party and vice presidential presidential presidential presidential vice presidential vice presidents were 25%positive and negative three, between 2.2%and 28%.
However, You Yinglong believes that the results of this election are still in a high degree of uncertain state.In other words, Lai Xiao is most likely to win the election, but it does not rule out that Hou Zhao has later lived.
The Pinning poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on December 29 shows that 32.4%among Taiwanese over 20 years old support Lai Xiao, 28.2%support Hou Zhao, and 24.6%supports Ke Wu Ping.14.8%have not been decided or not known.Lai Xiaobei, Zhao Bao, Zhao Bi, 4.2 percentage points.
You Yinglong analyzed that the characteristics of the 2024 presidential election are that voters are highly concerned about the election results, but there is no enthusiasm. Therefore, it is estimated that the total voting rate will be 68%positive and negative.This will be the low election of the eight presidential elections in Taiwan, second only to 66.27%in 2016.
He further calculated, assuming that the total voting rate is 68 %, the number of votes for Lai Xiao will fall between 4.64 million and 5.45 million, and the number of votes for Hou Zhao will fall from 4.51 million to 5.3 million.The number of votes for Ke Wu will fall between 2.92 million and 3.71 million votes.In other words, the maximum gap between Lai Xiaohe and Hou Zhaoping is 940,000 votes, and the minimum may be about 100,000 votes.
You Yinglong believes that the number of votes for Ke Wu will effectively lead the ultimate votes and votes of the two rivals, and even determine the election results.
You Yinglong said, from many aspects, the 2024 presidential election is more like the presidential election in 2000 and 2004. Who will not know the first to the end of the end.Variable, very elusive elections. "
Taiwan will hold a presidential election on January 13. According to the regulations of the Central Election Commission, from 00:00 on January 3 to the deadline for the voting time, it is not allowed to publish, report, spread, comment, or comment in any way.Quoting any public opinion survey information about candidates or elections.
