Li Cheng, a well -known Chinese political observation scholar, believes that the probability of war between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait is lower than the probability of civil war in the United States.
On Friday (October 27), in the theme discussion of the "Revisiting China Economy and Diplomacy" of the Hui Eye China Forum, a professor of the Department of Political and Public Administration of Hong Kong University of Hong Kong, and the founding director of the Center for Contemporary China and World ResearchLi Cheng expressed the above view.
Li Cheng explained that although the probability of the American Civil War and the Taiwan Strait War is low, the probability of the latter is lower. Even if the results of the Taiwan elections are not good for Beijing next year, he does not think that Beijing will launch a war.
Li Cheng gives three reasons for this.First of all, in the context of the Chinese PLA's 40 years, the mainland cannot guarantee that it will win.The second and more important reason is that even if Beijing's victory is not over, it will start new problems, including people's identity in the occupation area, and compatriots brought about by the war.
Third point, Li Cheng quoted former US Secretary of State, Kissinger, saying that in the era of artificial intelligence (AI), no one could win the war.This is because the war in the AI era will not be upgraded quickly like a limited war or agent war.He concluded: "Since no one can win, why do you have to fight?" The war "can be avoided, should be avoided, and must be avoided."
Taiwan will hold the presidential election in January next year, and the negotiations between the Kuomintang and the people's party in the wild will be stuck.Li Cheng believes that Guo Taiming, the founder of the Hon Hai Group, who was independent of the Blue and White Party, had the opportunity to reach a cooperation next month.
