Aesthetic: Detoning the Taiwan Strait War is most likely that Taiwan announced its ind

The famous international relations scholar John Mearsheimer attended the forum on Monday (September 11) that the Taiwan Strait was far higher than military factors dueThe factors are exactly that Taiwan has announced its independence.

The Taiwan Southeast Asian Influence Alliance (SIA) held a Geipan Political Summit Forum in Taipei on the 11th, inviting former Taiwan President Ma Ying -jeou, former Executive Yuan Changjiang Yihua, former Foreign Minister Lin Yongle, former Deputy Minister of Defense Chen Yongkang, and many international weights.Level scholars, explore the trend of Sino -US relations and the situation of the Taiwan Strait.

At the meeting of the University of Chicago, Mills Heimer mentioned at the meeting that the current international situation is indeed quite tight, especially in China that China is trying to dominate Asia and achieve achievements similar to the past in the Western world in the Western world.Therefore, it is believed that the politics and military wrestling between China and the United States will inevitably increase.

However, he believes that it can be clearly seen from the case of the Russian and Ukraine War that unless China is confident that it can quickly achieve a decisive victory, it will not easily launch a war.

However, Mills Heimer pointed out that war is the ultimate means of politics, and political factors are far more likely to cause war than military.

He took Japan in 1941 to attack the Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, USA, which caused the Pacific War as an example. It was said that Japan knew that launching attacks was not good for himself, but he had to make a political reaction by suppression by the US economic means.

In response to the current situation of the Taiwan Strait, Mills Heimer analyzes that if Beijing is really martial arts, a large -scale amphibious operation must be launched to cross the Taiwan Strait.However, the PLA lacks practical experience and has to face the support of the United States, Japan, and Australia, which will greatly increase the difficulty of attack.

He believes that China must face the facts, and it is difficult to make a quick decision in the Taiwan Strait, and it may be delayed.This also shows that the United States has a strong restraint on Beijing's military -deteriorating military -level and Taiwan Strait and other military levels.

Mills Heimer emphasized that from a political perspective, the reason for the most likely to declare the war in the Taiwan Strait is Taiwan's announcement of independence.If you can avoid talking about Taiwan's independence and avoid irritating Chinese leaders, you can maintain a very good situation now.

In addition to Mills Heimer, Ellison, the founder of the Kennedy Government College of Harvard University, who participated in this forum with pre -recorded video, also proposed that if Taiwan announced its independence, it may become the fuse of the Taiwan Strait War.

Ellison, the founder of the Kennedy Government College of Harvard University, believes that the policy framework of the United States No. 1 Middle School is full of elasticity and has been successfully evolving.(Photo by Miao Zonghan)

He emphasized that the competition between China and the United States is like an irritable group on the grassland. In this case, there will be no so -called good options.What Taiwan can do is not to be the cause of the problem, and not to be a provocative party.

However, Elison also believes that the aggression in Beijing and the words and deeds of some members of the United States are also a provocative, which may trigger a non -original dispute.

Ellison also mentioned that although the policy framework of the first US Chinese China could not satisfy everyone, it still effectively maintained the peace and stability and prosperity of the Taiwan Strait in the past decades, which is a miracle.

He emphasized that the policy framework of the first middle school is full of flexibility and has been evolving successfully, so there is no reason to find any reason and not maintain the policy of one middle school.

As for whether the United States will cooperate against Taiwan during the outbreak of the war, Mills Heimer said that the US President Biden has made a statement not only once, which clearly illustrates the attitude of the Biden government.

Lin Yongle, who once had the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Ma Ying -jeou government and as a representative of the Cai Yingwen government in the British government, mentioned in the meeting that cross -strait relations are not only cross -strait.National influence.

He said that Taiwan's long -term strategy is to hope to achieve peace, regional stability and prosperity. Therefore, while maintaining a solid relationship with the United States, Taiwan must also maintain peace and dialogue with mainland China and get a balance between the two.