I taught a course about the presidential election at the University of Chicago, and friends from the left and right factions would ask me the same question.The Republicans who grew up in western Kansas and I could not understand why former President Trump failed to lead a far -lead in polls; and in Chicago, the Democrats around me wanted to know why Vice President Harris didn't have one.Ride out of dust.
These are the right issues to understand contemporary American politics.Although the election in 2024 was unusual (especially Harris suddenly took charge of the Democratic Banner), the development of this campaign was like the typical characteristics of the presidential election in the past 80 years.However, it has two characteristics that are indeed different from decades of historical experience: the first one surprised the Democrats, and the second was frustrated by Republicans.
Let's talk about the Democratic Party first.Consistent with the precedent of history, if a political party controls the White House, its nomination will face strong election resistance.If Harris wins, she will be the ruling party nominee who has been elected as the presidential support rate at less than 50%during the election period in 76 years.
Since the implementation of polls in the early 1940s, the only nominated nominated by this situation is Harry Truman in 1948 with a support rate of 40%(although this is four and a half months before the election before the election before the election,The last polls performed).Since then, seven candidates have tried to break the curse of the unwolverly popular current president from the same political party, but none of them were successful.The recent one is Trump himself, and his support rate on the 2020 election day is 46%.According to Gallop's investigation, President Biden's support rate is currently 39%, and it is 6 percentage points lower than Harris's support rate (45%).
The relationship betweenPresidential support and election results highlights a traditional point of view: elections are a referendum on the ruling party's performance.The problems faced by Biden's abroad (Ukraine and Gasha) and domestic (immigrants crossing the southern border) attracted the attention of voters.In some aspects (GDP (GDP)) in the election year's economic management results, Bayiden is not bad, but other aspects (individual disposable income growth) is not good.
Voters may be short -sighted, or overestimate the control of complex systems such as the president, let alone the decisions of ordinary people and world leaders.Voters are usually too harsh in economic downturn, and they praise too much in economic prosperity, while president and presidential candidate are powerless.Just like attempts in many other fields, the luck in politics is more important than correct.
Therefore, Harris cannot ride a dust in the poll of the 2024 election because it constitutes the "basic element" of the election and is not good for the Democratic Party as the ruling party.Those difficulties that caused her failure to open the gap in the election can be explained as the normal mode of the US presidential election.
On the other hand, Trump successfully transferred the focus of the election to himself in an unprecedented way.This excites many voters, but it also makes many people disgust.In 2016, Hillary was the most popular presidential candidate in modern history.In addition, Trump's resistance has always been high. Since 2016, Trump's lack of support has exceeded the support rate.
Similarly, Trump, as president, is also very unpopular.During his tenure, Gallop's support rate never exceeded 50%of the Chief Executive.His 41%average support rate is the lowest in history, four percentage points less than Carter.
There has never been such a situation where the candidate himself has never been around in history.Even though Reagan, known for Gao Min, did not use the personality characteristics as Trump (which is good for him).Reagan's victory in 1980 and 1984 was achieved in the case of more favorable parties in his affiliated parties; his "charm" was more the result of his election victory, not the reason.
Trump is not a normal candidate
Trump was resisted in his party.Republican officials have always refused to show support before he was nominated for 2016.Many pro -Republican newspapers either support his opponent or simply do not support it.Most Republican leadership has been vigilant about Trump's confusing institutional remarks, opposition to the principles of the Republican long -term policy, and personal fault and behavior.Most people finally supported him, but some people did not.
Other people gradually alienated him due to the painful experience suffered during Trump's presidential period.The last straw that crushed some Republicans and independent people was that they found that Trump was higher than the party and the country when Trump endorsed the candidate and dealt with foreign allies and opponents.Others saw his catering of the gospel, the support of isolationism, and the indulgence of the white ethnicist.Others were dissatisfied with him trying to steal the 2020 election, which eventually led to a rare attack on the US Congress Building on January 6, 2021.Of course, most Democrats and many independent people have resisted Trump from the beginning.
Therefore, the reason why Trump is not leading the polls in the 2024 election, in fact, it is himself.It is difficult to not let people come to this conclusion: In normal years, if there is a normal candidate, the Republican Party will be popular.But 2024 is not a normal year, because Trump is not a normal candidate.
The decision of American voters is not only affected by the common concern of the general constituent election results, and it will also be controlled by a person with superb personality, and the latter has never been so important.Hundreds of thousands of (maybe millions) voters are putting aside their loyalty, priority of policies, and dissatisfaction with the current situation. They are opposed to a candidate they think they are not suitable for presidents and are not worthy of participating in the election.We will soon know whether it is the most politician or vision.
Author John Mark Hansen is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He was the National Commission on Federal Election Reform of the National Federal Election Special Election System Specialist
English Original Title: Why is the usmit event?
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.