If Trump recapture Georgia by the issue of abortion right, and win back to Arizona by the Democratic Party's defeat in illegal immigrants, leaving Harris to ask for the White House.Three rust states.This is a very narrow road.
U.S. Presidential Election is the seventhThe key quantity votes represented by the states.These seven states are Pennsylvania (19 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes) and Michigan (15 votes) in the five major lake districts, northern Callena (16 votes) and Georgia (16 votes) in the southeast, and Nevada (in the southwest6 votes) and Arizona (11 votes).
Many polls show that the support rates of Harris and Trump in the above seven states are difficult to distinguish.Considering the statistical error of poll data, no matter who finally won the White House by winning a swing state, it is reasonable.Putting the poll data aside, the author compares the most important issues in the election -economic, immigration and abortion rights, and compare the analysis of the characteristics of the economic, social and cultural characteristics of the swing state.Basic logic and preference for voting.
Seven states represent three social and cultural preferences
These seven states come from three areas with typical society, economy and cultural traditions, respectively.The first is that in the past three or forty years, in the development of global economic economic development, the "rust belt" in the former manufacturing center that defensive, including Pennsylvania, Weizhou, and Michigan; the second area is called the "Bible Belt", which isThe US Christian Gospels are dominant in the social and cultural value system, including North Carolina and Zuozhou; the third region is called the "Sun Belt", which refers to states in the south and southwestern, from California in the west to southeastFlorida, in the 1960s and 1970s, with the transformation of economic structure and population migration, they have experienced high economic growth.At present, with the help of the electronics industry and the energy industry, this area is still a significant net inflow of population and the growth of the GDP (GDP), which is higher than the national average. Nevada and Arizona belong to this region.
The impact of energy prices on the level of inflation is directly and important.Petroleum and natural gas occupy the dominant role in the US traffic and power sector, and production and price fluctuations have high sensitivity to decision makers and ordinary voters.The Russian and Ukraine War led to the fierce fluctuations in global oil and gas prices. Although the biggest impact was the European Union countries, it was still realized by American consumers and companies.But before the crown disease epidemic, the United States had achieved energy self -sufficiency through the shale gas revolution.In this 10 -year -long shale gas industry, Binzhou played a core role.This makes the United States do not have to worry too much about the impact of energy prices on the economy. In order to support Ukraine's invasion of Ukraine to fight against Russia, there is a strategic space that increases energy security.
Therefore, in the past two or three years, the Bayeng government has actually encouraged more oil and gas production. Even if the level of inflation in the United States is basically controlled, this situation will continue.Harris clearly stated that it will continue to support shale gas development after being elected, which is consistent with Trump's policy goals, which means that Pennsylvania is a must -have for both sides.In 2023, Binzhou accounted for 21%of the national natural gas output, second only to 30%of Texas.The oil and gas industry is the pillar industry of Pennsylvania. Losing the 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania is the result of both parties unbearable.
The globalization of the high -speed economy since the 1990s has led to a large number of outflows in the manufacturing and work opportunities in the United States. The most affected is the rust belt.Among them, Weizhou and Michigan are particularly prominent.
By increasing tariffs to promote the return of manufacturing, or provide a variety of incentives to ensure that the recreation of important industrial supply chains is that Harris and Trump are not much different.Trump is more determined in terms of high tariff sticks, and promises to apply the "principle of peering" to almost all trading partners, although the tariff rate increases differently.In contrast, Harris is more gentle and worry that too high tariffs will affect consumption and the cost burden of domestic enterprises.It can be seen that in terms of the 25 election votes representing the two states, the differences between the two are mostly methods and methods, and the goals are basically the same.
Therefore, the basic calculations of voters in the three states should be better in which candidates should fall in supporting oil and gas development and promoting the return of manufacturing.Interestingly, the two candidates for this election have governing records to test, which is rare.Trump has indeed increased its support for oil and gas development for four years, and the Republican Party's support for oil and gas resources development is consistent. Therefore, Trump is obviously excellent in protecting the interests of the oil and gas industry in the rust belt region of Pennsylvania.On the other hand, because of entanglement with the trade war with China, Trump did not bring significant signs of manufacturing backflow when he was in power.Harris's various policies and laws introduced by Biden, especially the inflation law, has been significantly accelerated in the past two or three years.Spit Trump is more dry.
"Sun Belt" -Beding security must be guaranteed
Located on the US -Mexico border, Arizona's influence of illegal immigrants can be imagined.The connected Nevada is naturally affected.For example, the swing voters published by the United Za poster on September 16th, the swing voters published by Trump and Harris did not say anything, and the Bayeng government's actions on illegal immigration control became the largest negative asset in Harris.One important reason for Trump to defeat Hillary in 2016 was to capture the Democratic Party's inaction in border management.In 2020, Biden won two states that won the sun with a weak advantage. In Arizona and Nevada, they only voted more than 10,000 and 30,000, respectively.For four years in power, Biden's management promised to implement the effect.Voters in these two states are likely to give opportunities to Trump.
The Bible Belt -the less the government does the better in protecting the right to life and the right to abortion.Religious beliefs, as the core factor affecting American society, always play an important role in the presidential election.North Carolina and Zuozhou Christian Gospels have a huge impact. For them, fetal life is the gift of God, and in principle, people cannot be deprived.Women's claims of abortion rights should have restrictions, and considering the preferences of people in different states, how to control this limit is a key.The conservative opinions of the Republican Party believe that the scale of this restriction should be determined by the public, that is, the states are determined by legislation or the amendment of the state constitution, rather than the federal government's promulgation of a national law or the Supreme Court's ruling to regulate.This idea does meet one of the principles of "decentralization".Therefore, for voters dominated by the Christian gospels of the two states, the Supreme Court has no problem with the overthrowing Luo Deer's case.
In the author's opinion, in the argument of the sensitive issue of abortion right, Trump has passed a specific Supreme Court judgment to echo the needs of the people, which is a solution.EssenceIn contrast, Harris focuses on protecting women's abortion rights, and the argument that appeals to this right to the United States Constitution is actually flawed.When the constitution does not explicitly explicitly protects the protection of a citizen's right, the judgment of the Supreme Court Judge based on the interpretation of the Constitution is the ultimate destination of the controversy.Unless one day, Congress proposed and passed the constitutional amendment to protect the abortion right, or the Supreme Court once again overturned its current ruling.No matter what kind of scene, it is not easy.From this point of view, Trump won 32 electoral votes represented by these two states, which is likely.
The possibility of Trump's two -entered palace seems to be greater
The results of this election are unpredictable. The differences in the support rates of two candidates in Swing StateWithin error.In 2020, the difference between the two states in the Bible belt was also minimal.Among the nearly 5 million votes in Zuozhou, Biden received only more than 10,000 more votes than Trump.This year, if Trump recapture Georgia with the issue of abortion right, and returned to Arizona by the Democratic Party's defeat on illegal immigration, he left Harris to make the White House road, and he could only win three rust states.This is a very narrow road, but it is not impossible.From another perspective, maybe this kind of uncertainty and suspense to the last moment may be a manifestation of American political vitality?
(the author is international energy and strategic observer)
