No matter what happened on Tuesday, we can say that this campaign is not as smooth as the Democratic Party expects.
After the midterm election, Trump seems to be over.Of course, he may still lose this time, but apparently he did not have as many people expected, as many people expected, because of the riots of Congress on January 6, several criminal prosecutions, or the Supreme Court judge he appointed to overthrow the Luo Velde caseAnd "lost qualifications".If voters cancel the qualifications of any candidate in 2024, it is also the current president, not a felony who tries to overthrow the results of the last election.
Why is Trump so competitive?The simplest answer is that the national political environment is not as conducive to the Democratic Party as many people imagined.
The Democratic Party obviously faces adversity in this election.In the last New York Times/Siena College polls, only 40%of voters recognized President Biden's performance, and only 28%of voters said that the country is moving towards the right direction.With so many Americans dissatisfied with the country or president, no political party has kept control over the White House.
polls show that the Democratic Party's challenges are even more severe.For decades, the Republican Party for the first time in a nationwide political party identity has been tied or leading the Democratic Party.Police investigations also found that the Republican Party has an advantage on most key issues -democracy and abortion rights are important exceptions.
The challenges faced by the Democratic Party seem to be part of the political competition trend faced by the ruling party of developed countries.Voters seem to be eager to change as soon as they have a chance.Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia, and the recent Japanese ruling parties have encountered election setbacks or lost power.Trump lost four years ago.France and Canada are likely to join this list.
The specific situation varies from national and political parties, but most of the stories are the same: the new crowns are popular and the turbulence comes.Almost all places, the high prices and Yu Bo after the epidemic made voters feel angry and resentful.It lost its reputation -and many of them were not particularly popular at first.
This has gradually weakened people's trust in government officials, liberal elites and media, and sometimes even destroy trust.When the price rises, millions of young and low -income voters are dissatisfied, and their savings, purchasing power, housing opportunities and hopes have become less.
In the United States, the disillusionment and depression of the post -epidemic era brought serious negative impact on the Democratic Party.The party advocates tough measures for viruses, including forced masks and vaccinations, closing schools and blockade.It supports the "Black's Life is also a life" movement, advocates a more free border policy, seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spend trillion dollars to stimulate the economy.With the end of the epidemic, all these quickly became a burden.
Unlike other ruling parties, the Democratic Party has the Trump card to play.Coupled with the issue of abortion rights, this may be enough to win the Democratic Party.This is exactly what happened in the mid -2022 election.But even if He Jinli won in this election, it is not necessarily the victory of the progress.
Democrats are more conservative than at any time in the past 16 years.They turn right on immigration, energy and crime issues.They no longer emphasize the tradition of expanding the liberalism of social security network, which is replaced by the urgency of reducing prices.
Regardless of the results of the election, the long -term advantages of liberalism in American politics may be weakening.
The end of an era?
Since 2008, Democrats and Liberalism have been dominated by American politics.
Democratic Party has won most of the votes in the presidential election four consecutive times.When they fully controlled the government, they promulgated the affordable medical bill, the Dode-Frank Act and chip bill; they saved the automobile industry and invested billions of dollars in renewable energy and infrastructure.
Liberalism also dominates in culture.During this period, it was marked by a series of positive left -wing people's movements. From Obama's 2008 campaign to "Occupy Wall Street", "Black's Life is also life",#I am also the campaign of Bernie Sanders, and called for "Green New Deal and National Medical Insurance.
Trump's election did not prevent the emergence of this liberal energy.Instead, it accelerate its development.His election shocked and angry by millions of people, and they thought he was a racist, gender discriminators and threats to democracy.The death of George Freud and the popularity of the new crowns have even more popular people's anger, leading to alert and justice, the restrictions on anti -racism and new crown virus.It eventually triggered a wave of protests, as well as the so -called racial and gender "awakening" progressism.
In the past few years, all these liberal energy seemed to have disappeared suddenly.The strong opposition to the restrictions on epidemic and awakening left has gradually become the mainstream, and even split liberal institutions.The trust of the media, "experts" and scientists has dropped straight.Young Americans turn to social media -maybe with the help of algorithms -vent their anger for their elderly presidents, high prices, opportunities to lose, and anger for a system that is not suitable for them.
At the same time, various events that occur after the epidemic have caused serious damage to liberal arguments, regardless of the specifics and disadvantages of these arguments.Inflation and high interest rates can be attributed to high government expenditures that stimulate excessive demand.High oil prices can be blamed on the suspension of drilling permits and termination of the Keystone oil pipeline project.The surge of immigrants can be attributed to the government's loose border policy, which cannot stand in politics; homelessness, crime and chaos make "law and order" necessary.
On one after another, the Democrats responded to the right.The most obvious thing is that He Jinli had to give up her position that she adopted at the peak when the cultural advantage of improving the cultural advantage in 2019 -prohibiting hydraulic fracture (He Jinli's important position in environmental and climate policies -translations), national medical insurance, and so on.However, the Democratic Party's change is not only reflected in the position adopted by the Democratic Party's primaries.Democrats fully faded the policies that they were confidently preached to voters a few years ago.
If there are any public opinion investigations, it can reflect the transition to a more conservative environment. This question is which political party (or candidate) is better on the most important issue on your voting.Police investigations in the entire cycle show that Republican and Trump have an advantage in this indicator.In fact, polls show that Trump and the Republican Party have advantages on most issues.
This transition from the right is also obvious in terms of political party identity.This year, a high -quality poll found that the Democratic Party has disappeared and even reversed in the nearly two decades of political parties.This year, the most well -known institutions in the field of political polls -Petou Research Center, Gallop, NBC/WSJ, Times/Siena, etc. -have all found that the Republican Party has led the Democratic Party since 2004.
The trend of political party registration is similar, and the Republican Party has risen rapidly nationwide.All registered party battlefield states -Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina -Republicans registered in November may be more than Democrats, even if He Jinli won the support of increasingly stronger party.
This is a huge change in the longer 16 years of time span.When the Democratic Party came to power in 2008, they entered the White House with confidence and launched a series of 40 years of policy to solve a series of backlog problems such as medical care, climate, to immigration and trade unions.In the past 16 years, they have implemented most of the agenda, but many voters are still dissatisfied with the status quo of the country.
If it is not because of Trump's unfavorable factors, it is easy to imagine that the Republican Party could have achieved a decisive victory in a "change" election as in 1980 or 2008.Trump may still be able toDo that, but obviously his challenges will make this process more difficult in some important aspects.
If Trump wins, this is the most likely explanation, not his own degree of political popularity.After the Democratic Party occupied the leading position for a period of time, the turbulence during the epidemic and the epidemic and the response measures made too many voters disappointed by the Democratic Party and was unwilling to give the party another chance -although they had a serious attitude towards Trump.
If he loses, the explanation is equally simple: it is his own behavior on January 6, and the decision to overthrow the Luo Deer's case by the Supreme Court, which made him lose a election that he could win.In this case, He Jinli's victory may still be not conducive to the hope of progressive clubs.Strangely, if Trump won the presidential election and once again ignited the enthusiasm of anti -Trump, liberalism rejuvenated vitality will become the easiest to imagine.
The Democratic Party may continue to maintain a row on Tuesday, but when historians review, they may draw such a conclusion: the advantage of liberalism has ended.
