In the case of the conditions much worse than the present, we are not as good as the present, we not only survive, but also achieve prosperity.As long as we keep our head awake and unity, we can create a glory.The main challenges we face are from China, not internationally.
The US Presidential Election has entered the final stage, and the current situation seems to be a common match.Although the American gaming company is optimistic about the victory of former President Trump, it is meaningless to try to predict the winner.We have no right to vote, so it is more useful that no matter who will enter the White House to examine what this election means to us.
First of all, what is the US election has nothing to do with us.This is not what some people (mainly Americans and Europeans) think about the end of the world of democracy in the future of the United States.The United States has tenacious vitality. Even in my life, I have witnessed it more than once.My American friend's view of their democracy may be right.However, there are few Singaporeans or Asians who absolutely appreciate American -style democracy, and we will not have Pavlov -like fear of various forms of authoritarianism.I sympathize with my American friend, but their concerns should not be our main concerns.
The relationship between Singapore and Asia and the United States has always been based on common interests, rather than common values.The same is true of formal allies in the United States.We are pragmatic.Only the United States can play a vital and irreplaceable role in checking China and maintaining Asian stability.This role has now been recognized by traditional non -allied countries such as India and Indonesia, and even Vietnam and other rivals. Therefore, no matter who enters the White House, we will find a way to cooperate with it.
Secondly, let us objectively look at things.The Trump administration is not nothing.It is true that he withdrawn from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is still a shock of the waves, but we randomly respond to the signing of the Cross -Pacific Partnership Comprehensive Progress Agreement (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partner Agreement (RCEP).EssenceMoreover, some things that Trump does to restore the credibility of the United States will definitely meet our interests.Only one example: In August 2017, Kim Jong -un was proud of the shape and threatened Guam with a missile.Trump threatened North Korea with "artillery and anger".Since then, as far as I know, North Korea has never tried any long -range missiles near Guam.
Trump has a deeper understanding of hard power
Although the speech of the former President Obama is more beautiful, Trump (perhaps instinctively) has a deeper understanding of hard power.Moreover, the most dangerous problem in this region is that the gunfire is easy to cause the situation to get out of control, and these are related to hard power. It is necessary to deal with trusted deterrence.
Bynden government is not perfect.It is true that Biden is more negotiated and predictable, which is a good thing.But we should not forget that Biden negotiates not to ask your family how he is doing, but to know how you are going to promote the strategic goal of the United States.
After the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States will no longer face any threats about survival worldwide.Therefore, there are no urgent reasons to "take any responsibility or pay any price" to maintain international order.This is not as described by some people, and the United States is shrinking or returning to isolation.But there is no doubt that this is the United States, which will be more prudent and more prudent on how to intervene, and a United States that will make more requirements for its allies, partners and AIA.In this regard, Biden's negotiation (may be called "polite tradingism") and Trump's tradingism is not much different.
Biden's Indo -Pacific Economic Framework negotiations were progressing difficult, and eventually failed to reach an agreement on the trade chapter.Ayan has not fully understood the similarities between Trump and Biden, so its "core position" continues to weaken.Fundamentally, "core position" is to play a role.The new strategic environment defined by the United States that failed to quickly adapt to the increasing competition in the United States and China, and more politely traded, weakened the role of Asia in Asia, and made it marginalized.If others call you "core", it does not mean that they -China and the United States -really think so.
Third, the major policy of the United States in Asia, that is, the policy and trade policies of China, has been established. The fundamental direction of these policies is unlikely to change whether Trump or Harris is elected.The possible adjustment in the future will be concentrated at the end of the fine branches of China and trade policies, not its core content.
Of course, economists know that even if it is adjusted at the end of fine branches, it will cause a significant and destructive effect. Therefore, it is necessary to explore what these adjustments may be.
The most dangerous outbreak point in this area is in the Taiwan Strait.Trump's support for Taiwan may not be as good as Biden, but this must be a bad thing.Biden has clearly stated that when launching an attack in mainland China, it will defend Taiwan, which is contrary to the policy of the United States since the normalization of the relationship between the People's Republic of China in 1979.These statements raised a natural mentality in Taiwan.The attitude of Taipei is "I am the only Chinese people, so you must help me."If this leads to the excessive challenge of Taiwanese politicians, it will be very dangerous.
Harris is more likely to emphasize values and human rights in foreign policy, which may encourage Taiwan's sense of granted.In any case, excessive emphasis on human rights issues will complicate the relationship between the United States and China and Asia.
Next, let me turn my perspective to the trade field.But the same, first understand some background situations.China is an important economic partner, and its importance will be increasing day by day.But the United States is still important.In 2023, the total trade between China and Asian'an was US $ 696.7 billion, while the total trade between the United States and Asia was 395 billion US dollars, which was quite significant.However, if the trade volume with the United States allies (EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia) will be calculated, the total trade with Asiabean and Western countries will reach US $ 804 billion.
Trump said that "tariff" is his favorite word.He threatened 10%to 20%of "automatic" tariffs on each US trade partner and levied 60%or higher tariffs on goods from China, which may even be as high as 1,000%in some cases.This upper limit may be a bit exaggerated, but with caution, we can assume that the United States will levy a certain degree of tariffs.Similarly, the world will not end because of this, but even in some aspects, the world economy, even if it does not collapse, will definitely slow down.
The US attitude towards trade has changed fundamentally
If Trump is in power again, it will almost definitely take more hard measures to use Southeast Asia and Mexico as a "backdoor" to enter the United States, and Chinese companies that "Singapore-Washing" through "Singapore-Washing".This is not to say that Harris will ignore these problems, but she may not deal with the same strength, but she will definitely take some measures.We must understand that the United States' attitude towards trade has undergone fundamental changes and adapt to new reality.
I don't think globalization can be reversed, although it will definitely become more uneven than now.The era of super globalization has ended, just as the era of zero or nearly zero has ended.More broadly, we should not mistake special circumstances as normal.About 20 years after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it was a good time for us and most countries, but this did not reduce its particularity and could not make it reproduce.We have returned to normal.
Competition between the great powers, and the conflict caused by it, or at least the threat of conflict, is the inherent of international relations between sovereign countries.feature.Of course, competition in the United States and China, and the tragic war between Ukraine and Gaza brought uncertainty and risks.But they are all the "Known UNKNOWNS" called the former Minister of Defense Ramsfield.It is believed that any international order is the result of negotiation and a fundamental error.In the history of the world, the efforts of competition and reducing (not elimination) risks constitute the only "order" we know.
In the short history of Singapore, at least almost half of the time is like this.The conditions are far worse than the present (don't forget that the Cold War in Southeast Asia was being stunned at that time), and his ability was far worse than the present situation. We not only survived, but also achieved prosperity.As long as we keep our head awake and unity, we can make more glory.The main challenges we face are from China, not internationally.The US election is important to everyone, but more importantly, we must maintain confidence in our ability and social cohesion.
Author Bilahari Kausikan is a former permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
Golden Shun Translation