Recently, there has been a wave of "Trump Trading" in the US stock market. The overall valuation of the stock market has risen, and Nvidia's market value has exceeded $ 3.5 trillion (about S $ 4.6 trillion).The term "Trump Trading" is not defined, but it is generally believed that the economic policy and political actions during Trump's term and investor behavior.This was particularly prominent after he was elected in November 2016. At that time, the market responded to his commitment to relax control, tax reduction and increased infrastructure expenditure."Trump Trading" reflects the market's expectations for the business environment.
Wall Streets generally believe that former President Trump's victory is beneficial to the market, and Vice President Harris won the opposite.
During the first term of Trump, US Treasury bond yields rose, US dollar stronger, and the stock market soared, especially technology and financial sectors continued to rise.The stock market is often forward -looking and can predict trends in advance.A few days left before the presidential election in November, investors expect he will win.On Polymarket, which is not open to Americans, a contract bet on Trump's victory is about 60 cents on October 18, and the contract price of the contract with Harris is about 40 centsEssenceWall Streets want to make a profit from Trump.
On October 18th, the Gallop Police Survey found that 52%of Americans believe that the situation of them and their families is worse than four years ago, and 39%of people think that living conditions have improved.This answer varies from the party's relationship with the respondent.The survey shows that about 72%of Democrats believe that their situation this year is better than 2020.This number of non -parties is much lower, 35%, and Republicans are 7%.Gallop pointed out that the most important problem in the respondents listed on the upcoming election was economic and immigrants, each with 21%.
From an economic point of view, American voters recognize Trump even instead of Biden.But statistics show that Biden's economic performance is not inferior.In the first three years of Trump's administration, GDP's performance (GDP) performed quite well, but the crown disease epidemic was outbreak and GDP was severely damaged.The GDP performance in Biden performed better.During the four -year term of Trump, the US GDP increased by 7.6%; as of now, Bayeng's GDP has increased by 11.8%.Although the GDP growth in Biden was good, the inflation data was absolutely bad.Three years in Trump's ruling, American household income has grown strongly, but in the last year of ruling, it has declined, which is related to the epidemic.During Biden's administration, inflation seriously dragged down American family income.As of last year, the median revenue was only 1.3%compared with 2020.
From the perspective of economic indicators, the economic performance of Biden's government is comparable to Trump's ruling for four years, and even Bittan is better, but Americans do not recognize Biden's economic performance.The American people generally complain about inflation, but the main cause of inflation is not the Bayeng government. The epidemic has led to the interruption of global supply chain and the Russian and Ukraine War.In September, the US consumer price index rose 2.4%year -on -year, and 2504,000 new jobs were added.After the data can prove that after the epidemic, the US economic recovery is the best in the global economy, and the relatively strength of the United States may be the strongest since the intercourse of the century.
Why can't such a beautiful economic transcript be attributed to the Bayeng government?In fact, the performance of the US economy has nothing to do with the government.The ability of the US President to control the economy is weak.First of all, the federal government spending is relatively small in the economy.Secondly, the vast majority of government expenditures are used for welfare plans.Third, the president only represented one department of the government, and the main thing that mastered the "wallet power" was Congress.Fourth, government policies will not work instantly.Fifth, interest rate decisions are the Federal Reserve rather than president's power.
But the people of the United States will blame the unsatisfactory life in life. The confusing phenomenon is that Bayeng's government economic performance is very good, but it is not generally recognized.The key is that the perspective of the problem is different. Economists talk about economic indicators from economic indicators, and when general voters merge economic well -being, it is more from personal feelings. For example, how difficult their families meet their basic needs.Studies by Perryundem, a non -party research company, showed that when talked about the economy, voters more intuitively believed whether they lived better or worse than four years ago.Price and education.Voters who recognize Trump's economic performance believe that Trump's performance in economic performance is better than Biden.At the same time, although Democratic supporters have opinions on Biden's economic performance, they still want to vote to Harris.
Here is another problem. The values of voters determine that Democratic supporters are unwilling to vote for him even if Trump performed well in economic performance.Social psychological research shows that personal values affect voting choices.Personal values are regulated by social and political values; in turn, personal values affect voting.The differences between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party reflect the completely different positions of the two parties' intervention, personal responsibilities, economic fairness, and policy priority.
The differences in this position are the differences in values.Democrats believe that the government plays a key role in alleviating the difficulties of the people.Trump is more inclined to emphasize the tax reduction and employment bill he implemented in 2017, and believes that this tax cutting policy has promoted the economic growth of the United States, which has reduced the poverty rate to a record low before the epidemic.Trump has promised that if he was elected, he would extend these tax cuts and promised to reduce many social benefits including medical subsidies and food vouchers projects.
The Democratic Party is promoted by the large government, and the Republican Party is promoted by a small government. The former has a socialist tendency and the latter is a typical capitalism.Choosing Harris, who has a socialist tendency, or Trump, who represents traditional conservativeism, depends on the values of American voters.
The immigration problem is Harris's dead point.On the evening of October 16, Harris was interviewed by Bret Baier, chief political anchor on Fox News.She was asked by Bayer on the issue of immigration, because she did not manage the border of the United States in the position of Vice President, causing a large number of illegal immigrants into the United States.Poye's survey in mid -October found that Trump has an advantage on immigration issues, and 54%of respondents believe that he is most capable of dealing with American immigration issues.Trump has an advantage in the most important economic and immigration issues, adding weights for him to serve as President of the United States again.
The author is a commentator in Shanghai, China
