Some people may ask why the current American elections, Republican candidates Trump and Wans have been claiming that once they are elected, they will force Ukraine to stop war as soon as possible?Here it is necessary to point out that Trump and Wans have the limitations of their worldview, and they also need to make different voices in order to run for the current campaign, which should be expedient.

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The Russian and Ukraine War has been carried out for two and a half years, and there is no significant sign of the ceasefire.Although both Russia and Ukraine have expressed their willingness to negotiate, the conditions of the conditions are very different, and there is no common point or a compromise area at all, so the so -called negotiation lacks the foundation of development.

From the perspective of humanitarianism, property protection, regional and world peace, and avoiding unnecessary upgrading of war, the Russian and Ukraine war should end immediately.The key pusher of the end is not Ukraine, but Russia, which violates the sovereignty of Ukraine.

If it is confusing to this basic logic and ethics, it is numb or ingenious.The first Persian Gulf War that occurred in 1991 was the reason that the Iraqi Saddam regime had invaded and annexed neighbor Kuwait.At this historical juncture, multinational forces headed by the United States must fight against Saddam's aggression in accordance with the UN Charter and authorization.Once Saddam's army was expelled from Kuwait, the war was over.Prior to this, there are no conditions and principles of Kuwait and multinational forces for Iraq's initiative.

Similarly, if you want to achieve a ceasefire first in Ukraine, and then negotiate, the minimum prerequisite is that the Russian President Putin agrees to withdraw the Russian army to the Russian -Ukraine border before February 2022. The rest are like Wuwu.Eastern issues such as controversial areas and the Crimean Peninsula can stay in future negotiations and try to solve it.However, Putin is obviously unwilling to create such a minimum of negotiation conditions, because the invasion of the Ukraine was originally planned to launch one hand, representing his original intention. If he recognizes the retreat, he will return without merit. I am afraid that the political life will end.The main leaders such as Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo, which launched World War II, and fascist forces. The final ending was completely defeated and only closed.Even Iraq and Saddam in 1991 did not take the initiative to stop the fire. Instead, it was fled by the multinational forces who lost their helmets and escaped.

From the perspective of the modern Russia's modern historical trajectory, according to the two typical cases of the First World War and the Afghanistan War, Russia was finally able to escape from the war because of the changes in the state power or the main leaders.Russia's exit war was due to the February and October revolution that overturned the Sand Emperor in the country. After the new regime came to power, it immediately negotiated with the relevant warring States to make Russia jump out of the quagmire.In the mid -to -late 1980s, the Soviet Union began to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, and it was also due to the new leader Gorbachev came to power and began to implement the result of the so -called "reform and new thinking".The conclusion is that as long as Putin is still on the stage, it is estimated that it is difficult for the Russia and Ukraine War to launch a substantial peace talks.

At present, Putin knows that he has been caught in the time of garbage that cannot be won in Ukraine, and he still does not see the coffin without tears.Of course, Russia was not Iraq.After Saddam annexed Kuwait, it triggered the highly righteous condemnation of the international community and the United Nations. Even the Iraq's traditional pythius Soviet Union also decided to abandon Saddam, so that the Iraqi regime really became the orphans.Today, Russia still belongs to the industrial and military power, the permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and some allies such as Iran and North Korea's direct weapons ammunition assistance, and the support of China's basic industrial raw materials and daily necessities.So Putin and Russia's last defeat in Ukraine should take time.

The beneficiary country and the risks have their own calculations

This means that the Russian and Ukraine War will continue to fight.This is of course not an ideal situation, but it is also a reality that must be faced.Under this premise, we may wish to discuss the consequences and influences of the war continued from the three different perspectives of the victims, beneficiaries, and risks of the Russian and Ukraine War.

From the outbreak to the present, the victims were undoubtedly the main parties of Uhwalke and Russia.The brutal land, sea, air offensive and defensive tug -of -war between the two sides, Russia's indifference to Ukraine's civilian targets and facilities, Ukraine has recently emerged in the Kurlsk area of ​​Russia, which has caused huge damage to the vitality and people's hearts of the two countries.To this end, in the future, the international court's crimes that Putin launched the war should be the inevitable of nature and justice.

The Russian and Ukraine War also has beneficiaries. The United States, India, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom are all examples.For the United States, it has always been a sound of the old continent cannon, and the new continent is golden.There are three major industries that have benefited: shale oil mining and exports. The United States and Europe implement oil embargo on Russia. The US oil mining industry has timely filling market vacancies, and sales profits have skyrocketed.Then there is the US military industry. Because of the military assistance to Ukraine, many of them are purchased from U.S. military companies, and then they will aid Ukraine, which leads to the rapid improvement of military industry capacity and profits.There is also the US stock market. The characteristics of capital investment are to avoid controlling risks. Every time the war broke out in Eurasia, the hot money swarmed into the US stock market, making it difficult for American investors to make money.The British finance, oil and military industries also have similar large profits.What's more, Western Groups with the United States and Britain as the core only assisted the relatively small price of Ukraine for weapons, and they made Russia semi -disabled, trapped in Ukraine and lost their evidence.The final defeat was buried.

Some people may ask, since this is the case, why, Republican candidates Trump and Wande, currently carried out in the United States election, will continue to declare Ukraine for off -war as soon as possible, talk and negotiate with Russia, be rightUkraine's aid funds are used in the United States?It must be pointed out here that the United States' aid for the U.S. Army belongs to four or two pounds or a thousand profits, which is the mainstream consensus of the court and the field.Trump and Wans do not recognize this, and have the limitations of their worldview. It is also to make different voices in order to run for the current campaign.

The beneficiaries of the Russian and Ukraine War also include India and Türkiye.The characteristics of the two countries are flexible in the body. They are eaten on both sides. They purchase low -cost energy sources from Russia, and at the same time sell ammunition to Ukraine.wait.Although the printed soil factions are controversial in morality, it is also an objective existence.

The risk of risk includes EU, China, Iran, North Korea, African countries, etc.For the European Union, the Russian and Ukraine War was at the doorstep, and the risk of war upgrades and spreading existed at any time.Therefore, the EU's greatest interest is to support Ukraine to resist Russia and end the war as soon as possible.The European Union should also prevent the US presidential election from changing the sky and major changes in the aid policy; if Trump, who advocates isolationism, is able to continue to support Ukraine, because compromise with Russia is by no means negotiation and option.

Iran and North Korea directly provide military aid to Russia, somewhat gambling in Russia.Once Russia was defeated, the liquidation of the accomplice and followers who supported the war of aggression must also come.

China ’s position on the Russian and Ukraine War has two levels: face and liter: the face is mostly diplomatic rhetoric to stop the war and promote peace; the pyrodhid is to prevent the Putin regime from falling. To this end, it is necessary to assist Russia to fight Ukraine.For China, this is equivalent to carrying an additional heavy political baggage, so that China, which is facing severe currency in the domestic market, worsened the snow, which also caused the United States and the European Union to launch more economic sanctions and import tariffs on China.Recently, Taiwan Lai Qingde's statement on "China should return to Russia's illegal occupation of territorial territories" has a wide range of response at home and abroad, and also reminds that China has a moral and historical burden on Russia's relations.

As one of the protagonists of the southern south of African countries, African countries are generally unwilling to intervene in major internationally.Fighting, but its food and food safety are closely related to the food production and exports of Ukraine, which makes African countries dilemma.Politically, under the pressure of Russia, they can often only choose not to directly condemn Russia; but economically, they must support Ukrainian sovereign integrity and agricultural security.

For comprehensively, whether the Russian and Ukraine War continues, Russia and Putin will have a high probability of frustration. The difference is only early or late.lose.If Putin himself can't choose, the torrent of the times will make choices for him.

The author is an expert in international cultural strategy research and consultation in the United States