The most significant difference between the two candidates involved the soft power of the United States, that is, by persuading instead of coercion or payment to ensure the ability to achieve the expected results.
As the US presidential election approaches, many people are guessing what it means to US foreign policy, and the answer is full of uncertainty.
First of all, who will win the election?In the early summer, polls showed that former President Trump was far ahead of President Biden.But now Vice President Harris has become a Democratic candidate, and the polls show a slight lead.Of course, the problem is that if voters' emotional fluctuations can be so fast, it is almost impossible to predict the emotional direction of voters on November 5.Although Harris showed impressive political skills, democratic politics was surprised.
Secondly, foreign leaders and actors also have "voting rights" because their actions can suddenly change the US political agenda and the possibility of various results.The mild foreign policy proposed by Bush during the 2000 campaign was very different from the policy promoted after his 2001 terrorist attacks in 2001.Who knows what kind of surprises will Russia Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping bring?
However, the campaign statement can indeed provide some policies.If Harris wins, we can expect Biden's policy to continue, although there will be some adjustments.She does not seem to emphasize promoting democracy (this is one of the main policy themes of Biden), and it will talk more about the Palestinians' rights.But in general, she will pursue the same set of policies to strengthen the US alliance and promote multilateralism.
Trump is more difficult to predict.Although all politicians will exaggerate the facts, he is famous in this regard, and it is difficult to know which speech will eventually become a policy.His remarks on unilateralism and reducing the status of alliances and multilateral institutions can let us understand the tone of its foreign policy, but cannot answer questions about certain specific issues.
Observer often tries to revise his own prediction by studying candidate consultants.Harris's chief assistant in foreign policy is Philip Gordon. He is a pragmatic and respected middleist. Before becoming the chief foreign policy adviser of Vice President, he had been in the first few years of the Democratic Party.The government is responsible for European and Middle East affairs.
In contrast, it is difficult to find characters who can be side by side in the Trump camp, although the media sometimes mentioned Robert O'Brien, the last national security consultant of Trump,To.What we know is that Trump regrets that he appoints those old Republicans in the last term, because these people should properly restrict his freedom of action and make his policy gentle than he imagined.
Similarity between the two candidates
Some of the similarities between the two candidates are also worth noting.The most important thing is their position on the Chinese issue.At present, the two parties have reached a wide range of consensus that China ’s operations on trade and intellectual property rights are unfair. At the same time, its tough behavior in the East China Sea and the South China Sea threatens American allies such as Japan and the Philippines.China has repeatedly stated that it does not rule out the possibility of using force to seize Taiwan, because in its eyes, this is just a rebel province.Biden continues Trump's policies to China in many ways; Harris is likely to do so, but some adjustments will be made.
The second similarities are that they all oppose new liberal economic policies.During the President of Trump, the United States abandoned the tradition (the Reagan era) Republican trade policy, increased tariffs, and reduced the participation of the World Trade Organization.All of this was completed under the guidance of the US trade representative Leitzizawa, and he was still influential in the Trump circle.
Trump also abandoned the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) reached by the former President Obama's negotiations. Biden did not take any action to re -join or cancel Trump's tariffs on imported goods from China.In fact, Biden went further to introduce new technical export control measures called "high wall courtyard" for China.As a Californians, Harris has inextricable connections with the American technology industry, so she is unlikely to disassemble the high walls, and Trump will expand the yard.
In addition, Trump and Harris have promised to enhance US military and economic hard power by investing in national defense budgets and national defense industrial bases.It is foreseeable that both will continue the current nuclear weapon modernization plan and promote the development of new weapons of artificial intelligence.
One of the biggest differences is the position of two candidates for Europe.Trump's popular campaign partner Wan Si showed that they were not interested in supporting Ukraine and NATO.Trump claims to end the war quickly through negotiations, but it is difficult to imagine how to do this without significantly weakening Ukraine.
In the Middle East, both candidates promise to safeguard Israel's security and self -defense, but Harris also talked about Palestine's self -determination.Both may urge Saudi Arabia to set up a normalization relationship with Israel, and will also take a strong stance on Iran.But Trump attaches great importance to Africa and Latin America, and Harris is expected to pay more attention to these areas.
The most significant difference between the two involves the soft power of the United States, that is, by persuading instead of coercion or payment to ensure the ability to achieve the expected results.During the presidency, Trump chose the unilateralism of "priority in the United States", which caused other countries to believe that its own interests did not consider it.He also publicly resisted multilateralism. The most noticeable thing was to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization.Biden reversed these actions, but Trump may reverse again, and Harris would maintain American participation.She is also more likely to issue a statement to promote human rights and democracy than Trump.
In short, no matter who won the election, the US foreign policy will have great continuity.However, candidates' attitudes towards alliances and multilateralism are very different, and they may also have extremely different results.
Author Joseph S. NYE, Jr. is the co -chairman of the Aspert Strategic Group, the former dean of Kennedy College of Harvard University, and former US Assistant National Defense Minister
English Original Title: US Foreign Policy in 2025
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
