Two world -leading tax experts Kings Belly Claus and Mary E. Lovli estimated that Trump tried to introduce tariffs, which will make ordinary U.S. families pay more than $ 2,600 (about S $ 3417), and4.1%to more than 6%of post -tax income.In contrast, for 1%of the people in the top level of income distribution, the loss caused by tariffs is only 1.4%of post -tax income.

Looking at the number of economic policies proposed by Trump, its core is to impose high tariffs on all imports imported from the United States.The former president of the United States claimed that tariffs would protect employment, increase wages, and start a new era of prosperity.He obviously believes that he has found a good medicine to boost the economy, so that he is proud to call himself a "tariff man".

However, tariffs are just a kind of fancy alias levied on the purchase of imported goods (and all domestic products produced by imported raw materials). Therefore, Trump's proposal will squeeze all American families, and low -income labor laborThe influence of people is particularly serious.Even if these tariffs will not cause the world to fall into a self -destructive trade war, US trading partners may implement revenge based on this, which will hurt all people who work in the field of high productivity exports in the United States.

Trump, who graduated from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, should know how tariffs are operating.Although he graduated in 1968, the tariff analysis was very mature 50 years ago, and the basic facts have not changed.

Two world's top tax experts Kimberly Clausing and Mary E. Lovely, Mary E. Lovely, will make Trump's tried tariffs that will pay ordinary US families with an additional $ 2,600 more(About S $ 3417).This estimated number was released by the Peterson Institute of International Economics. I had worked at the institute before, but did not participate in writing the report or any related work.

Clameth and Lovli analyzed Trump's tariff system, that is, 60%and 20%of additional taxes on Chinese imported goods and all other imported products, respectively.For middle -income families, an increase of $ 2,600 a year's tax burden means huge losses of spending power (4.1%of post -tax income).However, for the 20%of the lowest income distribution, the "losses brought by the proposed tariffs to consumers" are even greater -6%of the revenue of after -tax income.

In contrast, for 1%of the people in the top layer of income distribution, the loss caused by tariffs is only 1.4%of after -tax income.This influence difference reflects such a fact, that is, the proportion of imported products with direct or indirect consumption of low -income people accounts for their expenditures than wealthy people.

Clameth and Lovli also evaluated the influence of extended Trump's tax reduction policies, which are particularly conducive to high -income people.The extended tax reduction policy (of course Trump wants to do this) and the comprehensive net effect of comprehensively levying high import tariffs will make 1%of the richest people richer, while others will suffer losses.Therefore, the plan proposed by Trump is actually re -distribution of large -scale income to the highest income Americans.

In fact, Trump hopes to increase the tax burden on the labor population in the United States to pay for the tax reduction policies that mainly benefit the rich.The Republican Party has repeatedly claimed that it opposes the increase in the tax burden of most Americans, but Trump's proposal is exactly such suggestions.As the founder and chairman of the lobbying group "Americans for Tax Reform", Grover Norquist said: "Tariffs are taxes."Instead of being paid by foreign companies as Trump's wrong claims.

Create more high -quality employment for the United States, it should be a high priority of federal policy makers, but the high import tariffs are not achieved without imposing this goal.A better approach is to promote the development of breakthrough science and encourage companies that founded in the United States to commercialize these new ideas.As Jonathan Gruber and I have explained in the book that I was launched quickly in 2019, in 2019, in the decades after World War II, the United States was very large in this area.Power (relative to economic scale).

Fortunately, with the support of the two parties, President Biden's government promoted this agenda in the chip and scientific law promulgated in 2022, and Trump's opponent and vice president Harris also proposed to promoteThe United States has continued to move forward in this direction.Although the funds that support this work are in place, it is meaningful to stick to it.To this end, the Harris campaign team proposed the "US Give Tax Derelation" plan "American Getting Tax Derelation", which will be “created” for “investment and employment opportunities for key strategic industries”.

It is crucial to catch and maintain the leading position of science and technology.If you are the first person to invent a certain product and push it to the market, you will have the opportunity to create more high -quality positions that emerge in new industries in the world.The United States achieved this in the 1940s and 1960s, and this is the decades of common prosperity that has been realized by the reduction of tariffs, rather than increasing.

Author Simon Johnson is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, a professor at the Sloan School of Management of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and one of the Nobel Prize winners of this year.

English Original: Trump ’s Proposed Tariffs Are A Gift to the Rich

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.