Comments: If the Fed actively cuts interest rates, the Peoples Bank of China wil

Source: Bloomberg

The People's Bank of China is expected to obtain an asthma that has been expected from the global financial market dynamics. Investors and traders have waited for a long -awaited currency stimulus policy may gradually approach.

The Bank of China unexpectedly reducing interest rates two weeks ago may be just the beginning. Some economists now expect a total of three interest rate cuts in 2024, which will be a loose scale that has not been seen for many years.With concerns about economic recession, a potential disruptive factor is that the Fed may adopt a more active interest rate cut.

Xu Yongbin, co -investment director of Youshan Fund, said that, given that the trader expects that the Federal Reserve will have more interest rate cuts, the Central Bank of China is more room for interest rate cuts now; it is expected that the People's Bank of China will have at least one or two times this year.Monthly cut interest rates.

Chinese decision makers have carried out the RMB exchange rate defense war of the year and below, maintaining domestic interest rates unchanged, waiting for the Federal Reserve to reduce the lending cost from a 20 -year high.If China and the United States have expanded, it may exacerbate the capital outflow situation and lower the currency exchange rate.

But U.S. Treasury bonds have risen sharply, lowered the US yield and reduced the pressure on the renminbi.The interest rate futures show that traders are now expected to cut interest rates at least a percentage point by the Fed by the end of the year, starting from September or earlier.

For China, this means that the central bank has less worries, and the opportunity to boost the economy is in front of it.

Since the end of last year, the RMB has faced the pressure of depreciation, which stems from the pessimistic mood of China's growth prospects, and the gap between the yield of US Treasury bonds and the yield of China Treasury bonds has expanded.

However, the difference between the return rate of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States and China this week has narrowed to its lowest level since February, which has weakened the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds relative to Chinese Treasury bonds.

Therefore, some analysts and investors predict that the People's Bank of China may take action within a few weeks.The Fed is expected to cut interest rates two to three times this year, and Macgench Group is expected to cut interest rates at least twice this year, which will be twice as expected before this year.