Before 2021, as long as the government has issued a real estate regulation policy, the market generally believes that this is the government in Tuo City, and housing prices will rise again.Whether it is investors in housing or housing consumers, they will use bank credit leverage to pour into the market. House prices will continue to rise, and real estate will further prosper.However, starting from the second half of 2021, the nationwide decline in housing prices has fallen. Although the government is also launching a variety of market rescue policies, whether it is a central or local level, the market has a very flat response to these policies.EssenceAt present, housing prices in various cities across the country have continued to adjust, and even fell deeper and deeper, plunged or cut off.
Recently, a report issued by the China Real Estate Research Institute in the Research Institute of China states that in July, the average price of second -hand housing in 100 cities in China was 14,653 yuan per square meter (RMB S $ 2717, the same below).0.74%, it has fallen monthly for 27 consecutive months, and has fallen to 6.58%year -on -year.This also means that the decline in housing prices in China is nationwide and universal, and huge real estate bubbles in China are exploding.What is concerned about the market now is that the general plunge of housing prices will definitely bring huge impact and risks to socio -economic life.It is estimated that this is also the reason why the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Mainland Government decided to prevent and resolve real estate risks as the current main task.
The problem now is that in the past two years, most of China's housing prices have fallen so much. Is it already bottomed out? Is the market adjustment cycle that has entered the second half?The problem is not so simple.Because the reasons for the foam of China's real estate accumulation in the past 20 years may be that some cities are mainly due to excessive hype of investors, which has doubled housing prices in the short term. To make the housing prices of these cities return to rationality, housing prices are cut or plummeted. It is inevitable that it is inevitable; Some are the rapid growth of housing in these cities, leading to severe excess, and residents' housing purchasing power is exhausted.
Of course, the most important thing is the Chinese real estate market before 2021. It is basically a market dominated by speculation. Not only investors use financial leverage to continue to increase house prices, but also use financial leverage to increase housing prices. Real estateThe bubbles are huge, and the level of bidding of housing investors is always higher than the level of housing consumers, squeezing housing consumers out of the market.When the bubble is crushed and the nature of the market changes, the market -dominated market is transformed into a market with consumption. Buying housing is not only unprofitable, but even a huge risk.Without a trace, it can only be transformed into consumer demand.
However, due to the huge gap between the presence of housing investors and consumers in housing, the housing must be converted from investment demand to consumer demand, and housing prices must be adjusted downward.House prices have to be reduced to satisfying the payment capacity that the vast majority of residents can bear. It is a long process. The consumption demand of housing can only be released in the process.
For example, starting from the second half of 2021, housing prices in various cities in China are falling or even plummeted, but in the first half of 2024, the housing price income ratio of 100 key cities across the country was 10.6 (a decrease of 7.4% from the same period compared to the same period compared to 2023 periods.), The house price income ratio of first -tier cities is 26.3 (Shenzhen is 34.9).At present, the income ratio of housing prices in China is still at a high level compared with the United Nations calculated that the more reasonable house price income ratio 3 to 6.If the UN index limit 3 is the standard, the current income ratio of housing prices in 100 key cities in China is more than 3 times, and house prices must fall by more than two -thirds.If the upper limit 6 of the United Nations Index is the standard, the current income of housing prices in 100 key cities in China is still 44%higher than that of 44%.Housing prices in Shenzhen and first -tier cities are more outrageous than that of house prices.
In terms of time, whether China's housing prices are returning to the level of rationality, or the level that most residents have the ability to bear, it is quite uncertain. It depends on the rise in house prices in the past.What is the current decline in house prices and whether the real estate bubble is squeezed out.Otherwise, although the price of house prices is not small, when the rise in house prices rises, the real estate bubble may not be squeezed out.In this case, the vast majority of residents still have no ability to enter the market, and the consumer demand for housing cannot be released.When will these residents enter the market, it is also quite uncertain.Therefore, according to these situations, the price of China's property market is still a long process, which takes at least two years.
The author is a Chinese economist
